Can banks default overnight? Modelling endogenous contagion on the O/N interbank market

We propose a new model of the liquidity-driven banking system focusing on overnight interbank loans. This significant branch of the interbank market is commonly neglected in the banking system modelling and systemic risk analysis. We construct a model where banks are allowed to use both the interbank and the securities markets to manage their liquidity demand and supply as driven by prudential requirements in a volatile environment. The network of interbank loans is dynamic and simulated every day. We show how the intrasystem cash fluctuations alone, without any external shocks, may lead to systemic defaults, and what may be a symptom of the self-organized criticality of the system. We also analyze the impact of different prudential regulations and market conditions on the interbank market resilience. We confirm that the central bank’s asset purchase programmes, limiting the declines in government bond prices, can successfully stabilize banks’ liquidity demands. The model can be used to analyze the interbank market impact of macroprudential tools.     

基于改进型主成分分析法的食品供应商评价模型研究

根据食品行业的特点建立供应商评价指标体系，利用改进型主成分分析法消除评价指标之间相关影响，减少指标选择的工作量，并通过专家打分及相关的评价指标建立判别模型对备选的供应商进行筛选，然后选择最优的供应商。最后通过实例分析验证了该方法的有效性，对企业选择物流供应商具有一定参考价值。     

A new economics approach to modelling policies to achieve global 2020 targets for climate stabilisation

This paper explores a Post Keynesian, ‘new economics’ approach to climate policy, assessing the opportunities for investment in accelerated decarbonisation of the global economy to 2020 following the Great Recession of 2008–2009. The risks associated with business-as-usual growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere suggest that avoiding dangerous climate change will require that the world’s energy-economy system is transformed through switching to low-carbon technologies and lifestyles. Governments have agreed a target to hold the increase in temperatures above pre-industrial levels to at most 2°C and have offered reductions by 2020 in GHG emissions or the carbon-intensity of GDP. The effects of policies proposed to achieve pathways to 2020 towards this target are assessed using E3MG, an Energy-Environment-Economy (E3) Model at the Global level. E3MG is an annual simulation econometric model, estimated for 20 world regions over 1972–2006 adopting a new economics approach. Additional low-GHG investment of some 0.7% of GDP, with carbon pricing and other policies, is sufficient to achieve a pathway consistent with a medium chance of achieving the long-term target. GDP is above reference levels because decarbonisation reduces world oil prices and increases investment. Employment is some 0.9% above reference levels by 2020 and public finances are almost unaffected.     

多层房屋结构构件吊装

主要就多层房屋结构构件中柱子及梁板的吊装施工进行讨论分析。     

基于主成分分析的新疆石油天然气产业竞争力评价

文章从产业分析的视角,结合石油天然气产业自身的特点,构建了一套石油天然气产业竞争力评价指标体系,进而应用主成分分析法对新疆石油天然气产业竞争力进行定量分析,确定其在我国石油天然气产业中的竞争地位以及自身发展中存在的优势和不足。最后,文章对提升新疆石油天然气产业竞争力提出相应的对策：延伸产业链,推动上下游一体化发展;依托资源优势,培育和发展相关产业;增强技术创新能力,加快科研成果产业化。     

Measuring the impact of the approach to migration in the quality of web service interfaces

There is a good consensus on the strategic value of service-oriented architecture (SOA) as a way of structuring systems, and a common trend is to migrate legacy applications that use outdated technologies and architectures to SOA. We study the effects in the resulting Web Service interfaces of applying two traditional migration approaches combined with common ways of building services, namely, direct migration with code-first and indirect migration with contract-first. The migrated system was a 35-year-old COBOL system of a government agency that serves several millions of users. In addition, we provide a deep explanation of the trade-offs involved in following either combinations. Results confirm that the ‘fast and cheap’ approach to move into SOA, which is commonplace in the industry, may deliver poor service interfaces, and interface quality is also subject to the tools supporting the migration process.     

武器装备核心部件的国产化工作分析及对策

武器装备国产化是各国在武器装备发展过程中非常关注的一个重要指标,而核心部件的国产化在评价指标中又占据着极其重要的位置。目前虽然我国的武器装备绝大多数部件都实现了国产化,但在核心部件的研发上和国产化方面仍存在诸多的问题。针对当前我国武器装备发展过程中核心部件国产化工作面临的问题,从基础技术、制度机制、资源配置等方面进行了分析,最后基于对现状的分析结合现行的政策机制分三个层面对如何推进核心部件的国产化问题提出了相应的对策。     

Global modelling revisited

Reasons for the great impact of World Dynamics and Limits to Growth include their addressing the correct audience (the public), and the ability of systems dynamics clearly to handle and communicate information on complex and often little understood areas. Modelling projects should usually be global or national (not regional), draw heavily on mental and not just written and numerical databases, and have time horizons of perhaps 100 years. Sadly, critics of Worlds 2 and 3 have yet to come to grips with the fundamental messages presented there, although these messages are becoming increasingly vital.     

A medium-N approach to macroeconomic forecasting

This paper considers methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series in a framework where the number of predictors, N, is too large to apply traditional regression models but not sufficiently large to resort to statistical inference based on double asymptotics. Our interest is motivated by a body of empirical research suggesting that popular data-rich prediction methods perform best when N ranges from 20 to 40. In order to accomplish our goal, we resort to partial least squares and principal component regression to consistently estimate a stable dynamic regression model with many predictors as only the number of observations, T, diverges. We show both by simulations and empirical applications that the considered methods, especially partial least squares, compare well to models that are widely used in macroeconomic forecasting.     

Managing invasive alien species with professional and hobby farmers: Insights from ecological-economic modelling

Biosecurity is a great challenge to policy-makers globally. Biosecurity policies aim to either prevent invasions before they occur or to eradicate and/or effectively manage the invasive species and diseases once an invasion has occurred. Such policies have traditionally been directed towards professional producers in natural resource based sectors, including agriculture. Given the wide scope of issues threatened by invasive species and diseases, it is important to account for several types of stakeholders that are involved. We investigate the problem of an invasive insect pest feeding on an agricultural crop with heterogeneous producers: profit-oriented professional farmers and utility-oriented hobby farmers. We start from an ecological-economic model conceptually similar to the one developed by Eiswerth and Johnson [Eiswerth, M.E. and Johnson, W.S., 2002. Managing nonindigenous invasive species: insights from dynamic analysis. Environmental and Resource Economics 23, 319-342.] and extend it in three ways. First, we make explicit the relationship between the invaded state carrying capacity and farmers' planting decisions. Second, we add another producer type into the framework and hence account for the existence of both professional and hobby farmers. Third, we provide a theoretical contribution by discussing two alternative types of equilibria. We also apply the model to an empirical case to extract a number of stylised facts and in particular to assess: a) under which circumstances the invasion is likely to be not controllable; and b) how extending control policies to hobby farmers could affect both types of producers.