汇改、人民币国际化与汇率定价权 —基于双边随机前沿模型的实证研究

本文通过构建人民币外汇市场中关于人民币汇率定价权力的双边随机前沿模型, 分析了中外定价权差异对于人民币汇率的影响。实证研究表明,中国在人民币外汇市场上较外 部经济体具有更强的定价权力,近期的汇率贬值并非政府操作行为而是市场均衡结果;人民币 国际化和汇率市场化进程可以矫正偏离。本文的政策建议为：（1）继续推进人民币国际化和 汇改市场化进程。（2）进一步提高外部经济体参与人民币外汇市场交易的深度和广度。     

财政支农的市场一体化效应及其政策

以增加农民收入从而支撑具有产业、区域特征的市场一体化为视角,对财政政策不同的支农方式和支农工具所产生的不同的农业市场一体化效应进行了分析,认为直接收入补贴明显好于价格支持;间接支农优于直接支农;而且不同的支农项目对市场一体化的促进作用差异显著。为此,提出了逐步减少价格支持,增加直接收入补贴,增加财政间接支农力度,引导农业生产要素多渠道利用,促进农业系统内外部合作,重视三农无形资产,建立适当监督机制等政策建议。     

存在冲突证据下的证据推理多属性决策方法

针对传统的证据推理方法对证据冲突处理能力的不足,在引入冲突参数的基础上提 出了新的证据推理算法,通过证明,新算法完全满足证据合成的4个公理。基于方案集间冲 突参数对决策结果影响差异最小化原则,提出了新的冲突参数优化模型,最后通过实例仿真 ,论证了新算法对解决证据间存在冲突时的多属性决策问题的可行性和优越性。     

Chinese dietary culture influences consumers' intention to use imported soy‐based dietary supplements: an application of the theory of planned behaviour

The over‐saturated dietary supplement (DS) market in developed countries such as the US spurs the need for foreign market expansion, and the Chinese market provides a great potential for the foreign soy‐based DS industry. This study examined Chinese consumers' intention to use imported (US‐made US‐brand) soy‐based DS based on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). Two alternative models were also examined in which Chinese dietary culture variables, including soyfoods favourability and dining‐out sociability, as well as their interactions with attitudes, were integrated into the TPB model. A cross‐sectional, self‐administered survey was conducted with a sample of 215 subjects (137 females; 78 males) in Shanghai, China. The TPB variables attitude, subjective norm, perceived behaviour control and behavioural intention, as well as the Chinese dietary culture variables: soyfoods favourability and dine‐out sociability were measured. Multiple linear regressions were used to analyze the three models. The statistical results indicated that all three models were statistically significant to predict intention (Model 1: R² = 0.473, P < 0.001; Model 2: R² = 0.505, P < 0.001; Model 3: R² = 0.525, P < 0.001). The results also showed that attitude, perceived behavioural control, and dine‐out sociability were significant (positive) determinants of intention. Soyfoods favourability acted a significant (negative) moderator of the relationship between attitude and intention. Subjective norm had no significant impact on intention. In conclusion, the TPB model was useful to predict Chinese consumers' intention to use imported soy‐based DS, but not all the TPB components weighed significantly in exploring DS consumption in China. The selected Chinese dietary culture variables were much more important predictors than subjective norm. This study makes a significant contribution in the application of the TPB model and in market strategy development for imported dietary supplements in China.     

蒸压轻质加气混凝土内隔墙板的施工技术

介绍了蒸压轻质加气混凝土板的适用范围、性能特点、安装方法和质量保证措施。     

Cost-effective compensation to avoid carbon emissions from forest loss: An approach to consider price-quantity effects and risk-aversion

Analyses were carried out on financial compensation to avoid loss of tropical forests and related carbon (C) emissions when marginal financial yield declined for land-use options with extended areas, and when a risk-averting perspective (modeled according to financial theory around the capital asset pricing model) is assumed. The approach in this study was to consider natural forest, forest plantation, pasture, and cropland simultaneously to investigate how an optimized land-use distribution may reduce the amount of compensation necessary to avoid C emissions from forest loss.The financial compensations derived were as high as US$ 176 per hectare per year when comparing natural forests only with the most profitable alternative (croplands). However, compensation decreased to US$ 124 for risk-neutral decision-makers, who would strive for optimized land-use allocation, and to only US$ 47 per hectare per year for risk-avoiders, who would look to maximize the reward-to-variability ratio. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the compensation under risk-aversion increased much less than under risk-ignoring when increased productivity of agricultural land-use or growing demand for agricultural products was simulated. It was concluded that considering appropriate diversification strategies and the well documented human behavior to avoid risks is an important step in developing cost-effective compensation policies.     

房价变动优化分析

为预测未来房价的变动范围,根据往年的房价应用GM(1,1)模型,并结合灰色-马尔科夫模型对房价进行预测。考虑到影响房价的诸多因素变量,对给定的多个因素应用回归分析加以确定。从市场投机因素和政府的调控手段出发优化模型,通过模型分析给出合理的建议。     

中国创业板市场:现状与未来

本文在简要分析全球创业板市场形成、发展的历史动因和成败之源的基础上,对运行一年多来的中国创业板市场进行了研究,认为中国创业板市场目前存在着寻租股东突击入股、退市机制缺失等九大隐忧。这些隐忧有的扭曲了市场公平原则,有的则损害了市场效率。本文从经济发展、金融结构变革、创业型中小企业成长以及国际金融中心建设等角度入手,详细分析了中国发展创业板市场的有利因素,并勾划了中国创业板市场未来的愿景。     

基于分辨力增益的综合识别传感器管理方法

为提高目标综合识别的效能,需对综合识别系统中多种传感器资源进行科学管 理。在分析综合识别中目标优先级和传感器使用约束条件的基础上,建立了利用分辨力增益 作为传感器资源管理优化准则的目标函数,提出了利用传感器混淆矩阵的预测分辨力增益计 算方法,并将粒子群优化算法引入传感器-目标分配NP-hard问题的求解中。仿真结果表明该 方法合理高效。     

基于物理层网络编码的非对称中继系统性能分析

在无线通信研究中,网络编码因其可有效提升带宽利用率的特性得到了大量关注。 但是,网络编码用于双向中继信道（TWRC）时,中继位置的不对称将造成系统性能的下降, 故在源节点使用分层调制的方法来解决此问题。研究了分层调制和物理层网络编码的联合以及 优化,并进行了系统仿真。仿真结果显示,在非对称中继信道下,通过与传统调制方案（CM） 和非对称调制方案（AM）进行性能对比,分层调制物理层网络编码（HMPNC）能够极大地改 善端到端误比特率以及频谱效率。