Reverse causality in the R&D–patents relationship: an interpretation of the innovation persistence

Starting from the failure of the R&D–patents traditional relationship, when time-series and/or within-industry dimensions are included in the empirical analysis, the present work tries to contribute to the empirical literature from two directions. First, it performs a Granger causality test based on the theoretical presumption of a reverse patents→R&D link as an explanation for the failure of the traditional relationship. Second, assuming the reverse patents–R&D causality, we test and interpret the lag structure of such a relationship which shows the effective patent life that firms can expect within the two Schumpeterian patterns of innovations they belong to. In the light of the effective patent life, we offer a further explanation of innovation persistence which overturns the findings of the existing literature on persistence.     

交通基础设施投资对中国经济增长影响的分析

1978—2012年中国国内生产总值(GDP)年均增长超过9%,被世界称为"中国奇迹",超前发展的基础设施是中国实现奇迹不容忽视的重要因素。利用1978—2011年数据研究交通基础设施投资对中国经济增长的作用,结果表明,交通基础设施与经济增长存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,基础设施投资经济增长存在正溢出效应。     

提升我国生产性服务贸易竞争力的实证研究

随着国际分工的深入发展和网络信息技术的更新升级,生产性服务贸易在服务贸易内部的地位稳中有升,在世界经济发展和国际竞争中的地位日益显著,本文从生产性服务贸易竞争力入手,从经济规模、收入水平、外商投资、货物贸易规模、服务业发展水平、服务贸易开放度研究与生产性服务贸易竞争力的关系,通过平稳性检验、回归分析、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应函数的分析,得出相关结论并就提升生产性服务贸易提出对策建议。     

A re-examination of financial development,stock markets development and economic growth

This study provides new evidence on the role of financial development and stock market development in accounting for economic growth across geographic regions and income groups. To derive feasible policy implications, we estimate not only unbalanced panel regressions with period fixed effects, but also variance decompositions of annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates to examine what proxy measures are most important in economic growth over time and how much they contribute to economic growth. We find distinct direction, timing and strength of the causal links between financial development, stock market development and economic growth based on the results of Granger causality tests. Therefore, it may be necessary to make different efforts to achieve steady economic growth across geographic regions and income groups.     

Foreign Direct Investment Inflows,Economic Growth,and Trade Balances: The Experience of the New Members of the European Union

The study examines the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth and trade balances of 10 emerging economies in Europe before they joined the European Union. This article uses the Granger causality test to investigate the link between FDI inflows and economic growth for the countries under study. The findings show that gross domestic product growth has a unilateral Granger-cause on FDI inflows for 9 of 10 emerging European economies. However, the results did not show FDI inflows Granger-causing the changes in economic growth of any of the 10 countries. Furthermore, FDI inflows had no or negative effects on trade balances of the majority of the emerging European nations. The policy implications of this study are that host governments in emerging economies must carefully evaluate spillover effects of FDI inflows on their economies before offering significant incentive packages to lure multinational enterprises into their countries.     

安徽出口商品结构与经济增长关系的实证分析

论文利用安徽省1988-2008年的工业制成品出口、初级产品出口和GDP的年度统计数据,从出口商品结构的角度出发,并利用协整理论、向量误差修正模型和格兰杰因果关系检验方法对安徽省的出口商品结构与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明,安徽出口商品与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定关系,工业制成品的出口对该地区的经济增长具有单向的推动作用。据此,对进一步加大安徽出口工作力度,提出了优化出口商品结构以促进安徽省经济持续稳定增长的政策建议。     

可转换债券融资对公司绩效影响的实证分析

本文以2008～2010年发行可转换公司债券的上市公司为样本,用秩和检验方法对样本公司净资产收益率、总资产报酬率、每股收益、主营业务利润率、主营收入增长率等主要财务指标进行实证研究。结果表明,发行可转化公司债券后一年内公司的绩效明显提升,第二年有小幅下滑,本文针对这种现象进行具体分析,提出我国上市公司应该合理地采用这种新的融资方式以促进公司发展。     

不同类型调控政策对房地产市场影响的实证分析——以江苏省为例

近年来,国家对房地产宏观调控采取的多种政策,可划分为五类,即房地产开发投资规模、土地供应、金融信贷、住房供给结构、税收等政策。文中就这五类政策对房地产市场的影响进行了实证分析和定性分析。实证分析中采取了12个指标,利用了向量自回归模型和广义脉冲响应函数,就五类调控政策和市场形势对住房价格、成交量以及住房需求的影响时间和影响程度进行分析。定性分析中主要分析利率、税收、广义货币供应量M2、高房价等四个因素变化对住房价格、成交量以及住房需求的影响。     

新能源对广西经济社会环境的影响分析

能源作为人类生存、发展的重要条件,在各国各地区经济发展中扮演着不可替代的作用。当前广西正处于工业化、城镇化发展阶段,能源短缺、环境污染等问题日益严重,应当把发展新能源产业作为解决能源问题的突破口和新方向。新能源产业的发展,势必对满足广西经济发展需求、促进城乡和谐发展、缓解生态环境压力产生重大而深远的影响。     

辽宁电力能源消费与经济增长的实证分析

随着社会经济快速发展和人口迅猛增长,各国的经济增长均面临不同程度的能源瓶颈约束,文章基于Granger因果检验、协整分析等计量模型和方法,分析了辽宁省电力能源消费与经济增长之间的内在联系,通过分析得出如下结论:辽宁省电力消费与经济增长之间存在长期协整关系,电力能源消费引起生产总值GDP的变化,是经济增长的单向Granger因果关系。最后针对辽宁省就如何加快电力能源结构调整,推动能源产业转型升级,促进电力与经济协调发展方面提出了具体对策建议。