The Role of Behavioral Survey Methodologists in National Statistical

The expertise of behavioral survey methodologists is needed in national statistical agencies because of the necessity of using theory and research from the social sciences to reduce survey error. In this paper various social science based explanations for measurement error and nonresponse error are described in order to illustrate the conceptual foundations of such error reduction efforts. Three roles for behavioral survey methodologists in national statistical agencies are then discussed. They include: 1) bring an error reduction perspective to bear in an influential way for all aspects of designing and implementing agency surveys; 2) bring theoretical efficiency and effectiveness to experimental tests of alternative questionnaire designs and implementation procedures through the use of theories, concepts and pretests and findings of past behavioral science research; and 3) contribute to the expanding science of survey methodology.     

Demand system estimation in the absence of price data: an application of Stone-Lewbel price indices

This article evaluates the feasibility of estimating a system of demand equations in the absence of price information using the approach developed by Lewbel (1989). Stone-Lewbel (SL) price indices for commodity groups are constructed using information on the budget shares and the Consumer Price Indices (CPIs) of the goods comprising the commodity groups, which allows for household-level prices to be recovered. This study evaluates how susceptible are elasticities and marginal effects estimates from traditional parametric demand systems to the CPI used in the construction of the SL prices. To do this, three alternative regional CPIs are considered for the construction of the SL prices: monthly, quarterly and a constant (unity) price index. Elasticities and marginal effect estimates are computed for eight food commodity groups using the Exact Affine Stone Index (EASI) model as the parametric demand system and data from the United States Consumer Expenditure Survey. The estimates proved to be robust to the alternative regional CPIs considered in the construction of SL price indices, even to the absence of one. Hence, the results suggest that it is possible to accurately estimate a demand system even in the absence of price information.     

基于Matlab Web Server的神经网络远程故障诊断方法

提出了基于Matlab Web Server的神经网络远程故障诊断方法，使得网络客户端能通过Intranet访问远程Matlab Web Server从而对神经网络进行训练，训练完成后可以利用训练好的神经网络进行远程故障诊断。事实上利用相似的方法，利用Matlab的强大仿真与计算功能也可以加强网络的仿真与计算功能，具有很大的实用价值。     

基于Web Services的航空企业知识管理应用研究

本文研究了中国航空企业技术、知识和标准之间的关系,提出了从专利技术向行业标准、国家标准、国际标准转化的模型;对基于Web Services的航空企业知识管理系统的设计和建立进行了论述;重点研究了解决系统平台无关性、异构系统互操作性,提供了开放统一集成环境的分析系统AS的集成模型。     

天津地调院做强商业性地质工作的思考

本文通过分析天津地调院在顺应地勘单位改革大趋势下所面对的机遇与挑战 ,认为该院开展商业性地质工作的主要方向应放在环境地质、灾害地质、城市地质、农业地质及地质旅游业的开发与经营上。进而阐明天津地调院要做强商业性地质工作应采取“树立大地质观念 ,依靠地质科技进步和创新 ,建设核心竞争力 ,建立社会经济关系网 ,‘借势运营’走富院强局之路”的发展策略。     

Which firms engage small, foreign, or state banks? And who goes Islamic? Evidence from Turkey

We study a representative dataset from Turkey that identifies firm–bank connections. Banks in Turkey differ not only in size and nationality, but also in ownership and orientation (non-Islamic versus Islamic)—resulting in at least six distinct bank types. We estimate a multinomial logit of the choice by the firm of bank type. We document a strong correspondence between bank type and firm characteristics that is not always the same as has been documented so far for US datasets. For example, small firms engage large rather than small banks. Young, large, multiple-bank, and industry-diversified firms, that are located in or close to Istanbul, team up with foreign banks. Islamic banks mainly deal with young, multiple-bank, industry-focused and transparent firms.     

基于语义的孤立点检测

目前,大多数孤立点检测算法仅仅考虑了数据集本身,而没有考虑数据集所蕴涵的语义知识。本文我们通过分析隐藏在Web日志中的语义知识来进行孤立点检测,提出了一种基于语义的孤立点挖掘方法。该方法基于Web日志中记录的各个项满足的数值关系来分析其中隐含的语义信息,并根据这些语义信息的重要性给出一个综合衡量其相关性的指标。实验结果表明,该方法是可行的、有效的。     

Developmental approaches to B2B virtual communities

This paper analyses the development approaches of four business-to-business (B2B) virtual communities (VCs) and compares them through use of a cross-case analysis. The study indicated that there is no “one size fits all” method for developing VCs and that a structured, rigorous development methodology based on academic research is required in order to successfully create and manage VCs. It also found that the main challenge in creating successful VCs is not that of developing them, but that of developing an engagement and contribution culture.     

Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7

In this paper, we use survey data to analyze the accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts. We analyze a large panel of individual forecasts that has not previously been analyzed in the literature. We provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for all G7-countries and for four different macroeconomic variables. Our results show a high degree of dispersion of forecast accuracy across forecasters. We also find that there are large differences in the performances of forecasters, not only across countries but also across different macroeconomic variables. In general, the forecasts tend to be biased in situations where the forecasters have to learn about large structural shocks or gradual changes in the trend of a variable. Furthermore, while a sizable fraction of forecasters seem to smooth their GDP forecasts significantly, this does not apply to forecasts made for other macroeconomic variables.     

Scoring rules and survey density forecasts

This article provides a practical evaluation of some leading density forecast scoring rules in the context of forecast surveys. We analyse the density forecasts of UK inflation obtained from the Bank of England’s Survey of External Forecasters, considering both the survey average forecasts published in the Bank’s quarterly Inflation Report, and the individual survey responses recently made available to researchers by the Bank. The density forecasts are collected in histogram format, and the ranked probability score (RPS) is shown to have clear advantages over other scoring rules. Missing observations are a feature of forecast surveys, and we introduce an adjustment to the RPS, based on the Yates decomposition, to improve its comparative measurement of forecaster performance in the face of differential non-response. The new measure, denoted RPS*, is recommended to analysts of forecast surveys.