Five dimensions of the uncertainty–disagreement linkage

We analyze the relationship between forecaster disagreement and macroeconomic uncertainty in the Euro area using data from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters for the period 1999Q1–2018Q4 and find that disagreement is generally a poor proxy for uncertainty. However, the strength of this link varies with the dispersion statistic employed, the choice of either the point forecasts or the histogram means for calculating disagreement, the outcome variable considered and the forecast horizon. In contrast, distributional assumptions do not appear to be very influential. The relationship is weaker in subsamples before and after the outbreak of the Great Recession. Accounting for the forecasters’ entry to and exit from the survey has little impact on the results. We also show that survey-based uncertainty is associated with overall policy uncertainty, whereas forecaster disagreement is related more closely to the expected fluctuations on financial markets.     

Mobile diaries – Benchmark against metered measurements: An empirical investigation

Researchers seeking to study the relationships between consumers' communications, attitudes, and behaviors could benefit from monitoring consumers over time, across multiple locations and channels, and in a way that reflects consumers' subjective perceptions. Diaries on smartphones (mobile diaries) can be used as a research tool for such purposes. A mobile diary is a self-report instrument whereby people use their mobile handset to repeatedly report experiences of interest. Mobile diaries are increasingly used in psychology, geography, medicine, and commercial marketing. Yet they have rarely been used for quantitative marketing research, and were not benchmarked against best-practice metrics in marketing.In this study, we aim to set the ground for using mobile diaries in quantitative marketing research. We first lay out the theoretical infrastructure for the usage of mobile diaries, and describe possible respondent reporting concerns, including concerns related to non-reporting, reporting over time, and concerns stemming from individual-level heterogeneity.We demonstrate the potential of mobile diaries, as well as the importance of the various concerns, using a benchmark test case in the context of primetime TV viewing. Our benchmark uses a sample of respondents with both mobile diary viewing reports and Nielsen People Meter (NPM) records. Our analysis reveals that averaging across all conditions, 47.4%–64.7% of the NPM records are reported by the diary. The major sources for mismatch are random time periods without alarms, short viewings, and periodic reporting inactivity (pulsing). Concerns such as a decrease in reporting rates over time (e.g., fatigue), smartphone ownership, and demographic variation across individuals have relatively small effects on reporting likelihood. Analyzing the cases in which diary reports do not have a matching NPM record, we find many of them can be attributed to out-of-home viewing and viewing on non-metered devices. This finding demonstrates how mobile diaries can complement metered measurements. Overall, aggregate diary-based ratings have a 0.90 correlation with NPM ratings.We discuss implications for designing and using mobile diary studies in marketing.     

Impact of customers' assessment of website attributes on e-relationship in the securities brokerage industry: A multichannel perspective

The paper focuses on the comparison between pure e-retailers and multichannel retailers' customers and how they differ in their evaluations of functional and relational attributes of the website, as well as how these attributes impact online relationships. An online survey among online securities investors was conducted. Subjects were self-selected from blogs and forums dedicated to personal finance. A total of 326 questionnaires formed the final sample of this study. By using a series of univariate analyses of variance, structural equation modeling, and multi-group analysis, this research empirically demonstrates that the e-service quality evaluation and determinants of online relationship are different in multichannel contexts versus pure online ones. Results show that customers of multichannel retailers are not more loyal than those of pure online retailers. However, multichannel retailers exceed pure online retailers at achieving a higher level of online trust and a higher assessment of website features. The paper concludes with managerial implications that may be useful in multichannel retailing.     

Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: Recent evidence based on survey data

This article analyses the anchoring of inflation expectations of professional forecasters and consumers in the euro area. We study anchoring, defined as the central bank's ability to manage expectations, by paying special attention to the impact of the ECB inflation target and ECB inflation projections on inflation expectations. Our analysis indicates that in the post-crisis period longer-term inflation expectations have become somewhat more sensitive to shorter-term ones and to actual HICP inflation. We also find that the ECB inflation projections have recently become more important for short- and medium-term expectations of professional forecasters and at the same time the role of the ECB inflation target for those expectations has diminished. Overall, our analysis suggests that in recent years inflation expectations in the euro area have shown some signs of de-anchoring.     

Exploring impact factors of shippers’ risk prevention activities: A European survey in transportation

This paper reports results of a survey examining the impact factors for shippers to implement risk prevention activities. A regression analysis illustrates the relations between risk and quality related impact factors and the shippers’ ability to implement risk prevention activities. The study identifies the corporate risk culture and product vulnerability as main impact factors for the implementation of prevention activities in transportation. This paper will be beneficial for transportation managers considering the implementation of risk prevention activities in the transportation field, and will support further empirical research in the transportation management and supply chain risk management research area.     

Fundamental disagreement

We document a novel set of facts about disagreement among professional forecasters: (1) forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the long run; (2) the term structure of disagreement is downward sloping for real output growth, relatively flat for inflation, and upward sloping for the federal funds rate; (3) disagreement is time varying at all horizons. We propose a generalized model of imperfect information that can jointly explain these facts. We further use the term structure of disagreement to show that the monetary policy rule perceived by professional forecasters features a high degree of interest-rate smoothing and time variation in the intercept.     

Web的安全威胁与安全防护

本文对Web的安全威胁进行分析,提出Web安全防护措施,并基于Windows平台,简述一个Web安全防护策略的具体应用。     

Revisiting the labor supply effect of social security earnings test: New evidence from its elimination and reinstatement in Japan

We explore the labor supply effect of the social security earnings test in Japan on those aged 65–69 years through a combined examination of the elimination of the earnings test in 1985 and its reinstatement in 2002. We present evidence showing that the effects of changes in the earnings tests on the labor supply of the elderly are not symmetric, controlling for changes in the attributes of workers and firms. The repeal of the earnings test in 1985 did affect the earnings distribution of the elderly (especially for male), while its reinstatement in 2002 did not alter the earnings distribution.     

Web Service技术在供应链信息集成中的应用研究

随着全球化经济和现代化信息技术的飞速发展，企业已无法单独面对市场竞争，必须参与到供应链中，作为供应链的一个组成部分。供应链的不断庞大，各个企业相互之间很难交互和共享数据，于是形成一个个信息孤岛。如何进行信息交互使供应链管理发挥巨大的作用已成为人们普遍关注的热点。本文首先阐述了供应链管理的基本思想，其次分析了供应链管理中现状，在此基础上，提出了基于Web Service集成技术建立供应链信息集成系统，保持原有企业系统的独立性的基础上，在异构信息平台正确和快速的传递信息，提高供应链的运行效率。     

AN ANALYSIS OF SUPPLY CHAIN COLLABORATIONS AND THEIR EFFECT ON PERFORMANCE OUTCOMES

This research examined how operational outcomes, relational outcomes and business performance are affected by a collaboration project between buyers and suppliers in a supply chain. It is hypothesized that interdependence of knowledge and process, supply chain partner insight, and the level of collaboration between the firms affect the outcomes of a collaboration project. Survey data from buyers and suppliers from a wide range of industries and organizations were used in this analysis. Among these participants, higher levels of collaboration led to improvements in operational and relational outcomes, which together led to improvements in asset utilization, competitive position, organizational performance, and profitability.