Opportunities for Development in the Peoples Republic of China

No abstract available for this article.     

Key problems facing industrial distributors

This article reports on a survey of the problems faced by industrial distributors. Five major problem categories are identified and managerial implications are derived from the findings.     

Fiscal Explanations for Inflation: Any Evidence from Transition Economies?

Recent arguments, motivated partly by the new fiscal theory of price level, suggest that fiscal deficits undermine price stability in transition economies. This paper addresses these claims by examining vector-autoregressive models of inflation for three transition economies (Bulgaria, Romania and Russia). The results indicate that fiscal deficits have increased inflation in Bulgaria and Romania but not in the case of Russia. In Bulgaria and Romania, money aggregates and exchange rate have also been more influential to inflation than fiscal deficits. The analysis based on this method therefore suggests that while fiscal deficits have some influence on inflation, monetary factors mostly determine inflation in these three countries.     

Gross national accumulation

Low birth rates, longevity, family disintegration, and other factors have reduced the size of the average household. At the same time household size is shrinking, new housing offers twice the floor space per occupant of old housing. Small households are inefficient users of space, utilities, furniture, and equipment. As these factors converge, the result is over consumption of durables and vast stockpiles of possessions just awaiting disposal when the baby boom generation passes on. The rightful heirs to these possessions are themselves accumulators, and will most likely have little use for what is left to them. What does the future hold for consumption, savings, and demand for housing? Booming flea markets, bigger homes as warehouses, a decline in consumption, or an epidemic of display and collection? Public policies have limited leverage on private behavior.     

燕山西段青白口纪井儿峪组划分及其地层意义

本文利用近几年１：５万区调资料，论述了燕山西段怀来地区青白口纪井儿峪组的岩性特征和沉积环境、古生物特征、微量元素特征及接触关系。通过区域地层对比，探讨了井儿峪期燕山地区古地理面貌。指出了本区井儿峪组发现的重要意义。     

Forecasting exchange rates in transition economies: A comparison of multivariate time series models

This article compares the accuracy of vector autoregressive (VAR), restricted vector autoregressive (RVAR), Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR), vector error correction (VEC) and Bayesian vector error correction (BVEC) models in forecasting the exchange rates for five Central and Eastern European currencies (Czech Koruna, Hungarian Forint, Polish Zloty, Slovak Koruna and Slovenian Tolar) against the Euro and the US dollar. Among the specifications composing this battery of multivariate time series models, those with the smallest prediction error still fail to reject the test of equality of forecasting accuracy against the random walk model in short-term predictions, with the exception of the Slovenian Tolar/Euro exchange rate.First version received: October 2002/Final version received: September 2003The authors are grateful to two anonymous referees and the participants in the workshop Monetary and Exchange Rate Strategies Related to the Current European Unions Enlargement Processes, held in Leuven in September 2000, for very helpful comments.     

"深度经济"与顾客终身价值管理

在顾客资产日益重要的情况下,顾客终身价值(LTV)概念为企业重新认识与顾客的关系提供了新的视角。实施LTV型经营必须从战略层面考虑问题,不能短期地模仿,要构建防止顾客流失的有效经营体制。顾客终身价值与深度经济正成为企业管理新的思路和模式。     

Trade Structure and Trade liberalization: The emerging pattern between the EU and Transition Economies

The purpose of this study is to find empirical evidence for the assumption that trade liberalization unlocks the potential of the Transition Economies (TEs) to achieve technological upgrading, productivity progress and catching-up (in terms of income). The study examines the trade structure now emerging between the European Union (EU) and the TEs in the light of two sets of differently liberalized trade items identified by the European Agreements. The aim is to determine whether trade liberalization has helped to supersede the structures – reflected mainly in the low quality of products – inherited by the TEs from the command economy. The empirical results are interpreted in the light of the Flam-Helpman quality-cycle model. We find evidence of an ongoing division of labor between high quality products (EU) and low quality products (TEs) according to a cycle. The first stage comprises the already well established dominance of quality advantage products by EU countries producing and exporting high-quality products, which crowd out the TEs' production of similar products. The second stage is the exploitation of cost-advantages by TEs in less liberalized trade, and there they appear to achieve better results. All these results may be taken as support for an active government in TEs.     

美术对志贺直哉文学创作的影响初探

志贺直哉是白桦派的一名骁将，他早期崇拜西方美术，特别是法国印象派、后印象派画家的作品以及其中所蕴含的人道主义思想对他的文学创作影响巨大。后期的志贺直哉将目光转向淡泊恬适的东方美术，其焦躁不安的心情趋于平静。正是由于东西方美术的深刻影响，才形成了志贺直哉文学的独特风格和无穷魅力。     

South Africa has Second Homes Too! An Exploration of the Unexplored

The aim of this investigation is to make a contribution towards addressing the paucity of academic reflection on second home development in South Africa. More specifically, the paper aims to provide some preliminary insights into the question of what types of second homes there are in South Africa and what impacts second home development holds for different types of urban settlements. The examples drawn upon in this investigation cover diverse urban settings. These case studies include (1) a small rural town in the eastern Free State province – Clarens; (2) a small coastal village in KwaZulu-Natal – Zinkwazi; and (3) a neighbourhood in the Cape Town Metropolitan area – De Waterkant. While the case studies elucidate unique development characteristics and impacts, the investigations also highlight some commonalities. In particular, it is firstly argued that second home development in South Africa demonstrates similarities to developments found internationally; and secondly, that the near-generic impacts of second homes found elsewhere are echoed in the South African context too. Here, in particular, the generation of employment and property price appreciation stand out as key similarities.