Global models for a global pandemic: The impact of COVID-19 on small euro area economies

We analyse the COVID-19 pandemic shock on small open economies (SOEs) in the euro area in a unified modelling framework: the Euro Area and the Global Economy model. We find strong negative international spillovers affecting each of the modelled SOEs, stemming not only from the rest of the euro area, but also from the United States and the rest of the world. A lower bound on nominal interest rates in the euro area amplifies these spillovers, especially within the euro area. Furthermore, we find some positive spillovers from the fiscal measures implemented in the Euro area to combat the pandemic, including the new Next Generation EU instrument.     

A New Approach to Random Utility Modeling using the Dirichlet Multinomial Distribution

In this paper we introduce a new econometricapproach to analyzing recreational site choicedata, the Dirichlet multinomial model. Thismodel, which nests the standard conditionalmultinomial logit model, can accommodateover-dispersed data and may provide moreefficient estimators of coefficients andconsequent welfare measures than the standardconditional logit model, which is so widelyused in the Random Utility Model approach torecreation demand. We illustrate thisDirichlet approach using a data set of rockclimbers in Scotland, and study the impacts onper-trip consumers surplus of alternativemanagement strategies for popular rock climbingsites. Results show that the Dirichletmultinomial approach produces coefficient andwelfare estimates having smaller samplingvariability in this case. We also compareclassical welfare measures with their posteriorequivalents, which allow for welfare changes tobe dis-aggregated.     

影响客运车辆交通安全的因素及其对策

客运车辆安全管理工作是减少交通事故发生和降低人员伤亡及经济损失的有效手段。本文通过分析影响客运车辆安全运行的各种因素,以及部分实际发生的客运车辆交通事故案例,提出了加强和改善客运车辆安全管理的对策和技术措施,对防止或减少客运车辆运营安全事故,提高客运企业安全生产技术和管理水平具有重要意义。     

Topical modelling issues in Solvency II

The main reasons for giving European insurance companies the option to apply internal models for calculating the main solvency requirement within the Solvency II framework is to enhance better risk management in the firms, and to provide the opportunity to derive a more accurate risk-oriented capital requirement than the standard Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) could provide. The possibility to use internal models within pillar 1 basically means freedom to calculate the solvency requirement using some other formula and even principles than those given by the standard formula. This freedom is more limited with partial models.

This paper gives a brief introduction and update to the Solvency II project, reviews and discusses some topical aspects of internal models from the supervisory point of view, and points out some relating results of the Quantitative Impact Studies carried out, thus far, in the EU by CEIOPS.     

Modelling Intercontinental Tourism Consumption in South Africa: A Systems‐of‐Equations Approach

This paper investigates the pattern of inbound tourists' consumption in South Africa, examining four main intercontinental markets and five different tourism goods. The empirical investigation develops an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model and it extends recent research by allowing tourists to base their spending decision on the real effective price differences between South Africa and their home country. The results show that tourist spending in South Africa is a luxury good, and tourists react normally to a change in the relative price of goods. The cross‐price elasticities suggest that the preferences of different markets influence their view of substitutability and complementary effects between various products in South Africa.     

关于直流电机环火事故预防及处理

某发电企业曾发生过发电机励磁机环火的事故,本文阐述了直流电机环火事故的预防和解决直流电机环火事故的措施。     

A Critical Review of the Rationale Approach to the Microfoundation of Post-Keynesian Theory

While modeling macroeconomic interactions, post-Keynesians propose rationales to verbally motivate the choice of behavioral equations. This informal approach to microfoundation results in inconsistencies and fuzzy arguments. The rationales for different behavioral rules are mutually inconsistent, require strong and nontransparent assumptions, or refer to highly endogenous variables that are not part of the model. The postulated behavioral rules are invariant to endogenous changes in the microenvironment, whereas the rationales imply that they adjust endogenously. The prevailing assumption of purely backward-looking expectations is neither theoretically nor empirically satisfying. The article concludes that revisiting the issue of microfoundation within the post-Keynesian framework may be a rewarding line of research. Furthermore, post-Keynesians should be open to various microfoundations as long as models feature the core of post-Keynesian theory—the principle of effective demand.     

基于政策文化价值观引导下的我国突发事件应对方略

通过对突发事件的分析,描述突发事件的危害,概述我国突发事件的应对现状,揭示突发事件的矛盾及其根源,从政策文化角度指出处理问题的原则。在对我国突发事件相关宏观政策分析的基础上,得出我们应对突发事件的思路和解决办法。     

为了指标而竞争*——来自中国煤矿企业的证据#br#

中国矿难治理取得了不可忽视的成就,但总结其成功经验的研究尚显不足。本文认为安全生产的总量指标控制是一种降低中国煤矿企业矿难死亡人数的有效方式。笔者手工搜集了2002—2006年中国煤矿企业矿难死亡人数和省级安全生产控制考核数据,并与工业企业数据库进行匹配,发现单个煤矿事故死亡人数和同地区其他煤矿事故死亡人数之间显著负相关,说明企业间存在指标竞争现象。广义双重差分回归结果显示,在控制指标越少的省份,企业间指标竞争越激烈。异质性分析发现,在超标省份或者主管官员晋升的关键时期,指标竞争更加激烈。最后,单个煤矿企业死亡人数与异省邻市矿难死亡人数不相关,排除了矿难导致监管加强的“威慑效应”。本文的研究结果表明,煤矿安全生产总量指标控制对企业安全生产有显著作用。     

Complexity and the limits to learning

In this paper we look at the manner in which ideas coming from complexity science change our understanding of the cognitive powers of agents that is really necessary to explain the evolution of markets and of firms. The general ideas behind complex systems dynamics and evolution are presented and then two examples are treated in detail. The first in an evolutionary model of a market in which some new product is developed by competing firms and their “task” is to find a strategy in terms of quality and price that will be sustainable. This essentially requires agents/firms to discover mutually compatible strategies, and to create thereby sustainable market niches. The second example considers the internal structure of firms, in terms of their constituent working practices and skills. It demonstrates that it is precisely their ignorance of the consequences of adopting any particular practice that generates diversity in the emergent capabilities of firms, exploring the dimension of potential demand and therefore leading to a successful and sustainable business sector. The work supports the notion that the cognitive abilities that are involved are not about deduction and logic, as a traditional view of rationality might suggest, but are about the development and contraction of interpretive frameworks, which will be different for each player. The paper links these examples to a general recognition of the idea that complex, multi-agent systems evolve through successive “structural attractors”—multi-dimensional dynamical systems—with temporary structural stability. Because real systems contain both the structure and deviations from it, then there is a constant probing of structural stability and the possibility of qualitative change to a new structural attractor. This resembles the ideas in biological evolution related to “punctuated equilibria,” but it also links this to the idea of emergent and evolving networks of interaction, never of course near thermodynamic equilibrium.