风险投资项目评估应用方法——项目效益风险比综合评价模型

风险投资机构一般从投资风险和投资收益两个方面来进行项目评估，本文在对现有的项目评估理论和方法做出详细、客观分析研究的基础上，结合我国风险投资的实际法律、经济、信用、社会文化环境，引入中层次分析法、模糊判断法，提出了一个综合评价效益风险比的改进模型。     

中国农产品内生技术性贸易措施：地位与效应

WTO框架下具有合理性的技术性贸易措施是中国农产品贸易领域实施管理的有效手段。文章利用频数比率对其进行量化研究,认为技术性贸易措施在我国农产品进口管理体系中已替代关税居于主要地位,但相应于地位的变化,其建设尚显滞后,限制效应较差。对此,文章从完善进口安全监管体制,加强标准认证和风险评估,建立进口环节技术性贸易措施分析系统及预警机制等几个方面提出相应建议。     

河北省金融机构存贷差现象分析与认识

河北省金融机构存差规模呈逐年扩大趋势,存贷比不断下降。金融机构存差不断扩大的主要原因是现行的信贷管理制度、存款的刚性增长、信贷结构不合理、企业融资渠道多元化以及金融生态环境欠佳等。要解决这些问题,除了大力发展地方经济、加强金融生态环境建设之外,还要在调整金融产品结构、加快资本市场建设等方面采取切实措施。     

瞿麦（石竹）配方颗粒质量与饮片特征图谱的相关性

为了建立基于饮片特征图谱预测瞿麦（石竹）配方颗粒质量指标的方法,探究瞿麦（石竹）配方颗粒质量与饮片特征图谱的相关性。利用特征图谱对瞿麦（石竹）原料中不同药用部位的化学成分进行表征,明确差异峰,统计15批饮片特征图谱中差异峰占总特征峰的峰面积比值（α值）;同时依据国药瞿麦（石竹）配方颗粒标准对制备的15批饮片瞿麦（石竹）配方颗粒总黄酮含量、出膏率、浸出物含量等指标进行测定;采用Pearson相关性分析方法对饮片特征图谱中的α值与配方颗粒的总黄酮含量、出膏率、浸出物含量进行相关性分析,建立回归模型,并采用具有生产规模的6批瞿麦（石竹）原料、配方颗粒质量参数进行验证。结果表明：王不留行黄酮苷峰和皂草苷峰在饮片中不同药用部位的特征图谱存在相对峰面积差异,15批饮片中二者峰面积总和的α值为0.45～0.83;通过Pearson相关性分析发现,瞿麦（石竹）配方颗粒的总黄酮含量、出膏率、浸出物含量与α值呈显著正相关（P＜0.01）,总黄酮含量与α值极强相关,出膏率、浸出物含量与α值强相关;依据相关性建立的3个回归模型,所得R²均大于0.7,模型拟合度较高,通过6批数据的验证发现预测值和实测值的相对标准偏差均小于15%,说明模型有较好的准确性。研究利用原料特征图谱中的α值能够初步预测所得瞿麦（石竹）配方颗粒的各指标范围,并可实现源头控制瞿麦（石竹）配方颗粒质量,保证所得配方颗粒质量的可控性。     

江西省农村金融生态发展滞后现状、成因及其破解

良好的金融生态可以促进农村经济结构调整和经济增长方式的转变,增强资金的使用效率。文章结合相关的金融生态水平指标对江西省农村金融生态状况进行了一般性描述,并分析其发展滞后的原因,在此基础上演绎出相应的政策选择。     

Assessing time-varying stock market integration in Economic and Monetary Union for normal and crisis periods

In this paper, we examine the stock market integration process amongst 17 Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries from January 2002 to June 2013 over a normal period as well as for the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and Eurozone Debt Crisis (EDC) periods. We classify the economies in three groups (A, B and C) based on their GDP to examine whether the economic size influences financial integration. Seven indicators are used for the purpose, namely, beta convergence, sigma convergence, variance ratio, asymmetric DCC, dynamic cointegration, market synchronisation measure and common components approach. The results suggest that large-sized EMU economies (termed as Group A) exhibit strong stock market integration. Moderate integration is observed for middle-sized EMU economies with old membership (termed as Group B). Small-sized economies (termed as Group C) economies seemed to be least integrated within the EMU stock market system. The findings further suggest presence of contagion effects as one moves from normal to crisis periods, which are specifically stronger for more integrated economies of Group A. We recommend institutional, regulatory and other policy reforms for Group B and especially Group C to achieve higher level of integration.     

高收入家庭的理财规划方案

刘先生家庭年度结余77万余元,为典型的421型高收入家庭。刘先生是做磷矿生意的,收入高风险也大,刘太太是农行柜员,收入较稳定,家有女儿读幼儿园,还有四老需要赡养。本理财规划方案在介绍刘先生家庭成员及资产情况基础上,编制家庭资产负债表和收入支出表,分析各项资产比率,指出刘先生家庭现阶段资产配置的不合理之处,旨在对该家庭进行现金规划、教育规划、住房规划、保险规划和投资规划。通过规划,该家庭的理财目标得以实现。     

Disappearing Dividends: Implications for the Dividend–Price Ratio and Return Predictability

The conventional dividend–price ratio is highly persistent, and the literature reports mixed evidence on its role in predicting stock returns. We argue that the decreasing number of firms with a traditional dividend‐payout policy is responsible for these results, and develop a model in which the long‐run relationship between the dividends and stock price is time varying. An adjusted dividend–price ratio that accounts for the time‐varying long‐run relationship is considerably less persistent. Furthermore, the predictive regression model that employs the adjusted dividend–price ratio as a regressor outperforms the random‐walk model. These results are robust with respect to the firm size.     

The Debt‐Payment‐to‐Income Ratio as an Indicator of Borrowing Constraints: Evidence from Two Household Surveys

Liquidity constraints have been proposed as an important explanation for deviations from the rational expectations/permanent income hypothesis. This paper introduces to the liquidity constraint literature the ratio of a household's debt payments to its disposable personal income, the debt service ratio (DSR). We find that a household with a high DSR is significantly more likely to be turned down for credit than other households. Also, the consumption growth of likely constrained households, identified using the DSR along with the liquid‐asset‐to‐income ratio, is significantly more sensitive to past income than that of other households, confirming the DSR's value in identifying constrained households.     

利用层次分析法建立图书馆的图书利用率模型

根据图书馆的图书借阅状况,利用层次分析法建立图书利用率模型,给出图书利用率的计算公式,从而给出图书的使用效果估测,为管理者对图书投资和采购提供决策。