收入分配与地下经济的相关关系分析

随着我国改革开放的深入和力度的加强、收入多元化发展 ,在经济发展的同时 ,我国的收入分配差距逐渐扩大 ;同时 ,由计划经济向市场经济的转轨 ,我国地下经济出现了迅猛的增长势头。运用计量经济学中的Granger因果关系检验对两者进行检验 ,证明了我国地下经济和收入分配是互为因果关系的 ,在对两者相关关系的深入分析中找出既能有效遏制地下经济又能减小收入差距的解决办法是当前的重要任务     

测控通信系统射频资源可重组技术

测控通信系统的资源重组将是飞行器测控通信系统的发展方向。在中频实现测控终端重组的基础上,通过对射频重组构架的分析,得出了射频交换网络的性能和射频远距离传输的性能直接影响射频重组的可行性,提出了一种可行的全系统资源重组的测控体系构架,即采用微光电子射频交换网络与射频光波传输技术实现射频信号大规模交换及远距离传输,再结合中频重组以实现全系统资源重组,并对相关性能进行了分析。所提出的设计思路可供测控通信系统实现全体系的资源重组借鉴及参考。     

Naturally designed for masculinity vs. femininity? Prenatal testosterone predicts male consumers' choices of gender-imaged products

In this paper, we find that a proxy of prenatal testosterone exposure (i.e., digit ratio) is a significant predictor of preferences for products that differ in perceived masculinity vs. femininity. A more masculine (feminine) digit ratio predicts choice of products that have an increasingly masculine (feminine) image. This relationship is statistically significant for male consumers, but not for females.     

采用积分二次相位函数的雷达脉内调制类型识别

为了在低信噪比条件下获得较好的识别准确率,提出了一种基于积分二次相位函数（IQPF）的识别分类方法。根据不同信号的调频斜率的正负值完成信号的预分类,然后再利用不同信号的IQPF峰值-能量比以及功率谱估计实现信号的自动化分类。给出了识别流程图并进行了仿真实验,结果表明,该方法在信噪比大于-3dB时,其识别正确率达到90%以上,证明了方法的有效性和可行性。相关研究为雷达脉内调制类型的识别提供了一种切实可行的方法,具有一定的应用价值。     

Combining the Effects of OLS and Spread on Futures Hedging: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Index

Abstract:

This study proposes a dynamic hedge ratio, the combined ordinary least squares spread (COLSS), which combines the hedge ratio of ordinary least squares and the value of spread. Using this dynamic ratio for hedging with futures contracts, one can replace spot risk with spread risk. The COLSS captures not only the long-run equilibrium between spot and futures returns, but also the short-run deviation from equilibrium. The spread is forecast by one-period lagged stock market factors and high-order moments that are estimated by an options model. In the in-sample and out-of-sample tests, the COLSS strategy achieves significant risk reduction and outperforms the alternative models by a large utility improvement.     

中国一线城市房租形成机理和调控对策

房租是由房屋租赁市场的需求和供给两个方面决定的,而房屋租赁市场的需求和供给都受到房屋交易市场所形成的房价的影响。房价对房屋租赁市场需求的影响主要是由于房屋租赁市场和房屋交易市场的替代效应所导致,房价对房屋租赁市场供给的影响主要由房屋租售比和房价的上涨幅度决定。我国一线城市房价近十年的平均年上涨率为10%左右,这导致了我国一线城市的房屋租售比维持在极低的水平。随着房价的平稳,房租必然大幅上涨,故必须采取措施增加一线城市房屋租赁市场的供给,以供给量的大幅增加稳定房租。     

Analysts' Forecasts Following Forced CEO Changes

This paper examines analysts' earnings forecasts during the period of uncertainty following a change of chief executive officer (CEO). It distinguishes between forced and non‐forced CEO changes, and examines whether analysts utilize their information advantage to reduce the heightened uncertainty of a forced change of CEO. Examining a sample of Australian companies followed by analysts between 1999 and 2009, we find that forecasting accuracy is lower and earnings forecasts are more optimistic for firms experiencing forced CEO turnover compared to firms not undergoing such a change. However, dispersion is not statistically different. The results suggest that forced CEO turnover events provide a challenge to the forecasting environment for analysts. During CEO changes, investors should be aware that forecasts are less accurate and have an optimistic bias.     

超静孔隙水压作用下软土卸荷模量研究

软土的卸荷模量是基坑设计和数值分析的重要参数,然而现阶段富水软土地区的基坑开挖和设计均忽视了超静孔隙水压和卸荷比对软土卸荷模量的影响,导致基坑工程的数值分析结果与实际工程存在偏差.以深圳淤泥质软土为研究对象,利用TSZ全自动应力控制式三轴仪,开展一系列K0固结不排水三轴卸荷试验研究,求得不同超静孔隙水压和卸荷比条件下软土卸荷模量计算公式.研究结果表明,初始卸荷模量随固结围压增大而增大,超静孔隙水压对软土的卸荷模量具有削弱作用;以邓肯-张计算模型为基础,在考虑卸荷应力路径和超静孔隙水压对卸荷模量的影响下,推导出考虑卸荷应力路径的切线变形模量Et和考虑超静孔隙水压的切线变形模量Etu表达式;推导的软土卸荷模量公式对基坑的数值分析具有一定的实用价值.     

基于NBC模型的电力变压器故障诊断

随着电力变压器朝着大容量、高电压、高负荷的方向发展,其结构也越发复杂,故障逐渐增加.当前广泛使用的改良三比值法在对电力变压器进行故障诊断的过程中,容易出现准确率低和漏判率高等问题.鉴于此,提出一种NBC模型,该模型将朴素贝叶斯网络和改良三比值法的优势结合,在对电力变压器当前状态数据和历史样本数据充分学习的基础上,利用朴素贝叶斯分类器对当前电力变压器故障的编码组合进行故障预测分类,将预测所得到的诊断结果进行排序整理输出,实现了对电力变压器各类故障的有效分类.仿真结果表明,该NBC模型能较好地适应电力变压器各类故障的诊断,故障综合诊断正确率为95％,相较于改良三比值法,诊断准确率提升了50％,具有较强的工程实用性.     

人口结构转变与金融市场发展

文章分析了人口结构变动、居民财富增长和金融市场发展间的关系,通过实证研究,文章认为,在中国人口老龄化这一结构变动趋势下,未来股票市场可能面临下行压力,而固定收益类产品,尤其是债券市场将迎来发展机遇,但长期利率可能面临下行压力。