基于改进的BP-LM在中国人口老龄化预测中的应用

由于人口老龄化率的预测具有高度非线性特征，这与BP神经网络能够处理非线性问题的特征相符合，但BP神经网络算法易使解陷入局部极小。基于L-M算法的改进BP神经网络可以有效克服这一问题，而且收敛速度快。通过具体的仿真及实践结果验证了改进BP的有效性，并对未来五年的中国老龄化率进行了预测。     

川西浅层水平井轨迹控制技术

浅层水平井井眼轨迹控制技术是浅层水平井施工的关键环节之一,针对浅层水平井的钻井特点和影响井眼轨迹控制的因素,对现有钻具组合造斜率预测方法进行分析;针对浅层水平井井眼轨迹控制工艺和工具设计提出了一些技术措施,并结合川西浅层水平井钻井情况,总结了浅层水平井井眼轨迹控制工艺技术,得出了浅层水平井井眼轨迹控制几点建议,为今后在川西浅层施工的长水平段水平井积累实钻经验。     

THE IMPACT OF POINT‐OF‐SALE DATA INACCURACY AND INVENTORY RECORD DATA ERRORS

The presence or absence of error in point‐of‐sale (POS) data and inventory system records directly affects retailer performance. This study identifies various error sources in retail supply chains and studies the influence of inventory and POS (demand) errors in a simulated retail outlet according to fill rate and average inventory. Other things being equal, we find that inventory record error reduces fill rate more than demand error. This study adds further evidence to other studies that suggest the costs caused by errors in POS systems may be overstated.     

从固定资产重估看银行资本的提升

分析在国内外会计准则下，通过固定资产重估提升银行资本、缓解监管压力的可行性。根据我国会计准则的相关要求，在固定资产重估方面，目前只能通过投资性房地产重估、固定资产转换与并购重组三种路径提升银行资本，从而达到提升资本充足率的目的，但前两种方法却在一定程度上降低了杠杆率水平，且其市场实施效果也并不乐观。     

Girls for Sale? Child Sex Ratio and Girl Trafficking in India

ABSTRACT

Illegal trafficking of girls results from their disadvantageous position in society, often reflected by preference for sons and neglect of daughters. India has both higher levels of illegal trafficking of girls and abnormal child sex ratios in favor of boys. This paper examines if the skewed sex ratio in India is associated with trafficking of girls. Using panel data from twenty-nine Indian states from 1980 to 2011, the study finds that a 100-unit increase in the child sex ratio is associated with a 0.635 percent increase in girl trafficking. Further, the association is heterogeneous by women’s empowerment, crime against women, and party rule in the state, and the association between the child sex ratio and trafficking of girls is stronger and larger in magnitude in states with greater women’s empowerment. Overall, it appears the results are driven both by greater reporting and a greater incidence of illegal girl trafficking.     

The business model and balanced scorecard in creative tourism: the ultimate strategy boosters

Despite the various studies on creative tourism, little managerial frameworks such as a business model and a balanced scorecard are investigated for this new phenomenon. The overall image that emerges from the literature is ambiguous and fuzzy. Also, many activities known as creative tourism experiences may provide new participative experiences but rarely include a creative process. This study covers a whole aspect in designing a feasibility test model for creative experiences based on balanced scorecard through qualitative content analysis and as the essence of that, a Business Model by content validity and clustering analysis. Analysis of data by the mentioned methods reveals that four perspectives and 13 critical success factors are essential for the feasibility of a creative tourism experience. In addition, 22 indicators in 3 main dimensions determine the success of a creative tourism business model. This study is part of a growing body of research focused on discovering hidden aspects of creative tourism.     

Estimating panel data models in the presence of endogeneity and selection

We consider estimation of panel data models with sample selection when the equation of interest contains endogenous explanatory variables as well as unobserved heterogeneity. Assuming that appropriate instruments are available, we propose several tests for selection bias and two estimation procedures that correct for selection in the presence of endogenous regressors. The tests are based on the fixed effects two-stage least squares estimator, thereby permitting arbitrary correlation between unobserved heterogeneity and explanatory variables. The first correction procedure is parametric and is valid under the assumption that the errors in the selection equation are normally distributed. The second procedure estimates the model parameters semiparametrically using series estimators. In the proposed testing and correction procedures, the error terms may be heterogeneously distributed and serially dependent in both selection and primary equations. Because these methods allow for a rather flexible structure of the error variance and do not impose any nonstandard assumptions on the conditional distributions of explanatory variables, they provide a useful alternative to the existing approaches presented in the literature.     

我国区域金融结构转变与区域经济发展的实证分析

本文首先用格兰杰因果检验方法分析了我国区域金融结构转变与区域经济发展之间的关系,得出我国区域金融结构转变是被动的适应区域经济发展的结果,而不是导源于金融的自由化。然后针对分析结果提出优化我国区域金融结构的建议。     

不可再生资源的最优储备与开发战略控制模型

宏观经济系统中，不可再生资源储备与开发的战略决策，是该系统中物流动态发展的基础，更是系统经济可持续发展，并在未来经济竞争中维持资源优势的决定性要不比，在进行了五种战略思考的基础上，构建了四个不可再生资源的最优储备与开发的战略控制模型。