国有商业银行上市及其风险研究——从制度的角度

当前,国有商业银行正紧锣密鼓进行股份制改革,其中的重头戏就是实现上市。国有商业银行上市属于一种典型的产权制度变迁,是国有商业银行调整公司治理结构、改变“一股独大”局面的一个主要手段。作为一种新制度的设计与安排,在实际中肯定将面临很多问题,特别是制度变迁与移植过程中固有的一些隐性风险,是国有商业银行上市改造中不容忽视的问题。     

基于截尾分布理论预测开放式基金大额赎回量

提出了开放式基金的巨额赎回量和大额赎回量的概念,将复合泊阿松分布和截尾分布理论运用在大额赎回量概率计算之中,得到了计算公式。由于开放式基金流动性风险主要来自于大额赎回量,因此使用截尾分布方法预测未来近期的大额赎回量更合适。推导出了正态分布下大额赎回量的期望和方差计算公式。为基金管理人合理规避这种流动性风险提供了一种预测方法。     

企业财务风险预警体系分析

财务风险预警是现代企业进行战略管理的重要方式之一,本文阐述了建立财务风险预警体系的意义和财务风险产生的原因,构建了企业财务风险预警指标。     

中小企业融资难的理论分析及启示

本文结合外国学者对中小企业融资难的理论分析以及我国中小企业融资困境和成因分析,对如何摆脱制约中小企业发展的“瓶颈”得到了3个方面的启示。     

Research on Enterprise Credit Ratings Issue in China

With gradually deep construction in social credit system, the function of enterprise credit rating becomes increasingly emergence in prompting credit risk, maintain finance stable and impel society credit system construction. But due to the enterprise credit consciousness is not strong, the function of government impels to be insufficient and the enthusiasm of commercial bank in using exterior rating outcome is not high, and some local enterprise credit rating service is still bare to survive. Therefore, only exerting the government impetus function, enhancing the credit rating organization public credit power, guiding the society to increase credit product demand and establishing an integrated supervisory system combined government supervision with industry autonomy, can further impel the credit rating industry steady development in China.     

Financial Stability in European Banking: The Role of Common Factors

In this paper, I investigate the development and determinants of CDS spreads for 18 major European banks between December 2001 and January 2004 applying factor analysis to daily data. Two clear-cut conclusions can be drawn. First, the dominating first common factor that explains 88 percent of all variation in the system, impacts on all banks in a similar direction. This suggests a strong market integration. However the size of the response of each bank’s CDS spread to the first common factor differs substantially, probably reflecting differences in individual bank’s exposure and riskiness. Second, the first common factor appears significantly related to the European P/E ratio and the European-wide 2-year nominal interest rate. This finding suggests that the common factor may be interpreted as a general indicator of market conditions. JEL Classification Numbers: G12, G15, G21, C30     

Transparency in the interbank market and the volume of bank intermediated loans

In the present paper we study the equilibrium interaction through which the interbank market is related to the public lending and borrowing market. It turns out that this interaction is affected by the transparency in the interbank market. Interbank market transparency is modeled by means of more informative signals about future interbank rates. We find that more transparency might increase or decrease the volume of bank intermediated loans in the public market. In particular, the impact of more transparency on the volume of loans depends on the curvature of the marginal cost function of the banking firm. Furthermore, we find that expected profits of the bank are higher when the interbank market is more transparent.     

全面落实科学发展观 努力建设创新型行业 促进保险业又快又好地发展

2005年，在党中央国务院的正确领导下，保险业以邓小平理论和“三个代表”重要思想为指导，坚持以科学发展观为统领，以优化发展结构、转换经营机制和转变增长方式为切入点，保险业务平稳健康发展。2005年全年保费收入4927.3亿元，同比增长14％；保险公司总资产15225．9亿元，比年初增加3240．1亿元。当前，国际国内形势的发展变化要求保险业必须又快又好地发展，经济社会发展为保险业发展提供了广阔空间。今后应着力解决好速度、效益、诚信和规范经营问题，切实增强自主创新能力，积极防范化解风险，努力加强行业基础建设，促进保险业稳定持续健康快速发展，更好地为全面建设小康社会和构建社会主义和谐社会服务。     

论我国现行商业银行风险管理法律制度的不足及完善

由于全球经济一体化与金融一体化的发展以及现代金融理论、信息技术和金融创新等因素，金融市场出现前所未有的波动性，商业银行等金融机构的经营管理面临日趋严重的金融风险，加强商业银行风险管理法律制度的建设已成为一国金融风险管理的中心工作。本文在分析了我国现行商业银行风险管理法律制度不足的基础上，就如何完善提出了自己的一点看法和建议。     

基于信息共享机制的供应链融资风险管理研究

从信贷业务的共性和供应链融资的特殊性出发,指出了供应链融资面临的多种信贷风险,分析了信息共享对信贷风险的影响,并提出基于信息共享机制的供应链融资信贷风险管理策略。