基于股权结构差异的银行经营效率研究——对13家上市商业银行数据的实证分析

本文运用CCR模型对我国上市商业银行的经营效率进行了评估,同时引入超效率模型,对所研究样本的经营效率进行深入分析和综合排序。通过对各商业银行经营效率按照股权性质和股权集中度进行分组,本文发现五大国有控股商业银行的整体经营效率远低于其他8家已经上市的全国性股份制商业银行,而且商业银行的股权集中度与银行效率呈现＂倒U型的关系＂。通过进一步对非DEA有效的商业银行的投入产出指标进行DEA相对有效面上的投影,发现固定资产净值未有效利用、员工人数过多以及存款总额利用效率不高,是制约这些上市商业银行非DEA有效的瓶颈。针对问题,本文从投入产出的角度提出若干提高DEA效率的对策措施。     

Partnering模式中伙伴收益分配比例的确定

对工程项目采用合伙制(Partnering)模式带来的风险进行了分析。在此基础上,根据“风险分担,收益共享”的原则,确定了伙伴收益分配遵循的四条原则;并利用模糊综合评判法,给出确定收益分配比例的一个计算方法。     

Forecasting performances of three automated modelling techniques during the economic crisis 2007–2009

In this work we consider the forecasting of macroeconomic variables during an economic crisis. The focus is on a specific class of models, the so-called single hidden-layer feed-forward autoregressive neural network models. What makes these models interesting in the present context is the fact that they form a class of universal approximators and may be expected to work well during exceptional periods such as major economic crises. Neural network models are often difficult to estimate, and we follow the idea of White (2006) of transforming the specification and nonlinear estimation problem into a linear model selection and estimation problem. To this end, we employ three automatic modelling devices. One of them is White’s QuickNet, but we also consider Autometrics, which is well known to time series econometricians, and the Marginal Bridge Estimator, which is better known to statisticians. The performances of these three model selectors are compared by looking at the accuracy of the forecasts of the estimated neural network models. We apply the neural network model and the three modelling techniques to monthly industrial production and unemployment series from the G7 countries and the four Scandinavian ones, and focus on forecasting during the economic crisis 2007–2009. The forecast accuracy is measured using the root mean square forecast error. Hypothesis testing is also used to compare the performances of the different techniques.     

塔河4区碳酸盐岩缝洞型油藏周期注水实践及认识

塔河4区奥陶系油藏是以发育大规模溶洞为主的碳酸盐岩缝洞型油藏,2005年开展注水开发以来,稳定见效期5-6年。2011年开始注水效果变差,注采井组水窜严重,递减明显加大。本文针对注水效果变差的现状,从周期注水机理入手,总结了周期注水参数优化、不同缝洞及注采连通关系周期注水方法,周期注水有效改善了区块开发效果。     

江苏省民办高职院校就业状况研究——基于灰色模型和回归模型的比较分析

本文尝试用灰色模型对相对数进行分解运算,并与传统的回归预测方法进行比较。一方面对高职学生的就业率进行预测,另一方面对灰色模型在相对数进行分解预算的准确性进行评价。     

基于用例模型的产品协同开发系统需求建模研究

用例模型通过用例、参与者以及它们之间的关系来描绘系统应该具有的功能集。简单介绍了用例模型及其基本要素。通过产品协同开发系统的开发实践,从参与者、用例、用例图以及用例规约四方面,使开发人员和用户都对产品开发系统有了总体性的认识和把握,充分体现了用例分析技术有助于提高需求分析效率和质量的特点,并为建立一个柔性的产品开发系统奠定了坚实的基础。     

顾客满意的模糊评价

企业必须识别顾客、理解顾客,以顾客需求为导向进而赢得顾客满意。在识别顾客、理解顾客的基础上,提出了顾客满意度的模糊评价模型,以便对顾客满意进行评价。     

An economic analysis of the Cattlemen’s Beef Promotion and Research Board demand-enhancing programmes

The research reported here addressed two objectives. The first objective was to measure the overall impact of the Cattlemen’s Beef Board as well as eight-specific advertising, promotion and research activities on US beef demand. The second objective was to compute marginal benefit–cost ratios (BCRs) for the eight individual checkoff activities and for the overall programme. The results indicated that Cattlemen’s Beef Board’s Promotion activities increased total domestic beef demand by 15.7 billion pounds in total, or 2.1 billion pounds per year between 2006 and 2014. Collectively, the overall marginal BCR for all Cattlemen’s Beef Board activities was $11.20.