On the dynamic selection of mechanisms for provision of public projects

How do individuals' spatial decisions affect the institutions for public goods provision over time? This paper describes a dynamic model in which the provision mechanism for a public project is itself the object of locational choice of individuals. Individuals in an ongoing society must choose between a location with a Majority Rule mechanism and one with a Voluntary Contribution mechanism. Each mechanism determines a funding decision for a local public project which is repeated over time. Generations of individuals asynchronously supercede their ‘parents’, creating an entry/exit process that allows individuals with possibly different beliefs to enter society. A self-confirming equilibrium (SCE) belief process describes an evolution of beliefs in this society consistent with a self-confirming equilibrium (Fudenberg and Levine, 1993) of the repeated location/provision game. It is shown that the process with belief mutation as new individuals enter society results in a globally absorbing state in which the Majority Rule mechanism is the unique survivor of the two.     

Do Formula or Competitive Grant Funds Have Greater Impacts on State Agricultural Productivity?

This article examines the impact of public agricultural research and extension on agricultural total factor productivity at the state level. The objective is to establish whether federal formula or competitive grant funding of agricultural research has a greater impact on state agricultural productivity. A pooled cross-section time-series model of agricultural productivity is fitted to annual data for forty-eight contiguous states over 1970–1999. Our results show that public agricultural research and agricultural extension have statistically significant positive impacts on state agricultural productivity. In addition, Hatch formula funding has a larger impact on agricultural productivity than federal competitive grant funding, and a reallocation of Hatch formula funds to competitive grant funding would lower agricultural productivity. This seems unlikely to be a socially optimal policy. Furthermore, from a cost–benefit perspective, our study shows that the social marginal annualized real rate of return to public resources invested in agricultural research is 49–62%, and to public agricultural extension, the rate is even larger.     

美国与近代中国高等农业教育

美国与近代中国高等农业教育的关系极为密切。为了争夺中国市场和资源,争取中国人的认同和亲善,也为了增进中美高等教育交流活动,美国倡导并参与了中国近代高等农业教育建设的几乎整个过程。通过传教士创办的教会大学农科院系、留美中国农科学生的培养等途径,对近代中国高等农业教育体系和模式产生了巨大影响,为中国训练了一批农业教育专家,也为美国势力进一步渗入中国打下了文化基础,并为中美高等农业院校交流与合作提供了借鉴。     

文化因素对售后服务方式的影响分析

本文着重从四个方面分析了文化因素是如何影响消费者对三种方式售后服务的感受，进而影响售后服务方式的提供，并指出在提供国际服务时，要根据不同的文化背景来选择售后服务的提供方式。     

The size and development of the shadow economy: An empirical investigation from states of India

Using the state level data from India, this paper investigates the size of the hidden economy in Indian states over the period 1974/75 to 1995/96. Our analysis has shown that after liberalization of the Indian economy in 1991/92, the growth in the size of the hidden economy has decreased on an average. Our results show that the growth in the size of the hidden economy is approximately 4% less in scheduled election years than in all other years. We also demonstrate that the growth is significantly lower in those states where the coalition government is in power. An increased growth of newspapers and the literacy rates translate to cleaner governance, e.g. to fewer amounts of shadow economy activities in the economy.     

谈高校评估与高校档案的相互影响

在高校教育评估过程中，高校档案作为高校教育评估的基础和依据，在高校评估中的作用越来越大。一方面高校评估促进了档案工作，另一方面高校档案工作又是高校评估的重要组成部分，两者之间影响相辅相成。     

Determinants of stock market volatility and risk premia

Summary. We show the dynamics of diverse beliefs is the primary propagation mechanism of volatility in asset markets. Hence, we treat the characteristics of the market beliefs as a primary, primitive, explanation of market volatility. We study an economy with stock and riskless bond markets and formulate a financial equilibrium model with diverse and time varying beliefs. Agents states of belief play a key role in the market, requiring an endogenous expansion of the state space. To forecast prices agents must forecast market states of belief which are beliefs of others hence our equilibrium embodies the Keynes Beauty Contest. A market state of belief is a vector which uniquely identifies the distribution of conditional probabilities of agents. Restricting beliefs to satisfy the rationality principle of Rational Belief (see Kurz, 1994, 1997) our economy replicates well the empirical record of the (i) moments of the price/dividend ratio, risky stock return, riskless interest rate and the equity premium; (ii) Sharpe ratio and the correlation between risky returns and consumption growth; (iii) predictability of stock returns and price/dividend ratio as expressed by: (I) Variance Ratio statistic for long lags, (II) autocorrelation of these variables, and (III) mean reversion of the risky returns and the predictive power of the price/dividend ratio. Also, our model explains the presence of stochastic volatility in asset prices and returns. Two properties of beliefs drive market volatility: (i) rationalizable over confidence implying belief densities with fat tails, and (ii) rationalizable asymmetry in frequencies of bull or bear states.This research was supported by a grant of the Smith Richardson Foundation to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). We thank Kenneth Judd for constant advice which was crucial at several points in the development of this work. We also thank Kenneth Arrow, Min Fan, Michael Magill, Carsten Nielsen, Manuel Santos, Nicholas Yannelis, Ho-Mou Wu and Woody Brock for comments on earlier drafts. The RBE model developed in this paper and the associated programs used to compute it are available to the public on Mordecai Kurzs web page at http://www.stanford.edu/ mordecai.This revised version was published online in January 2005 with corrections to the Cover date.     

业主委员会制度绩效影响因素分析

业主自主治理组织——业主委员会(HOAs)治理绩效出现差异的原因是一个重要的研究问题。对此采用强迫进入多元回归模型对同一地方的调查数据进行分析。结果发现:6个自变量共可以解释因变量78.30%的变异量;"小区规模"与业主委员会制度绩效成弱负相关关系,即小区规模越大,业主委员会制度绩效则越低,这种影响并不明显;一般社会资本对业主委员会制度绩效变异量的解释并不明显;"特殊社会资本"对业主委员会制度绩效的影响最大,其贡献系数0.678。     

Out-of-stock justifications and consumers’ behavioral outcomes– exploring the role of product type and sales level information in out-of-stock situations

The present study extends prior research on stockouts by examining how product-related attributes interact with OOS justifications to influence consumer responses to stockouts. Drawing from Out-of-stock (OOS) literature, this study investigates how perceived popularity, perceived uniqueness, negative affect, and behavioral outcomes are influenced by out-of-stock justifications, product type, and sales level. Two scenario-based experiments and two field studies are conducted in which the cause of the stockout, product type, and sales level are manipulated at different levels. The results of the studies provide the following primary insights- 1) Consumers infer popularity of the product when the product is OOS due to high demand or when the sales level is high 2) Consumers infer uniqueness of the product when the product is OOS due to short supply but not when sales level is low 3) As the perceived popularity of utilitarian products or the perceived uniqueness of hedonic products increases, consumers' propensity to switch stores to purchase the OOS products increases 4) Consumers’ intention to spread negative word of mouth decreases when the cause of OOS or a high sales level is specified. Retailers can influence behavioral outcomes by specifying the cause of stockout tailored according to the type of product, or by providing sales level information.     

Appetite for destruction: Counterintuitive effects of attractive faces on people's food choices

Faces in general and attractive faces, in particular, are frequently used in marketing, advertising, and packaging design. However, few studies have examined the effects of attractive faces on people's choice behavior. The present research examines whether attractive (vs. unattractive) faces increase individuals’ inclination to choose either healthy or unhealthy foods. In contrast to the beliefs held by most marketing professors, but consistent with visceral state theories, exposure to attractive (vs. unattractive) opposite-sex faces increased choice likelihood of unhealthy foods. This effect was moderated by self-view-relevant attributes and exerted a particularly powerful influence on individuals who were single (vs. in a relationship) and individuals rating themselves as unattractive (vs. attractive). Furthermore, the effect was mediated by arousal, was stronger for men than for women, but did not generalize after exposure to attractive (vs. unattractive) same-sex faces. As pictorial exposure is sufficient for the effect to occur, these findings have important implications for marketing, advertising, and public health.