Monetization and growth in colonial New England, 1703–1749

We examine econometrically the real effects of paper money's introduction into colonial New England over the 1703–1749 period. Departing from earlier analyses that focus primarily on the depreciation of paper money in the region, we show that expansion of the money stock promoted growth in modern sector activity and not the other way around. We also find that bills emitted for seigniorage purposes had a positive effect on the modern sector, while bills issued through loan banks did not.     

通过试飞测量大型直升机超短波天线的方向图

超短波天线方向图的精确测量对摸清机载通信系统性能底数，指导部队战术应用具有重要意义。针对传统试飞方法均不适用于大型直升机天线方向图测量的问题,通过分析大型直升机的飞行性能特点，提出了一种新的适用于大型直升机的超短波天线方向图试飞方法。通过分析计算给出了试飞中载机高度、速度、姿态等参数的限制数据，制定了详细的试飞流程，提出了逐架次、逐频点采集校准数据并完成校准曲线拟合的方法，得到了较高的测量精度。该方法已在某大型直升机定型试飞中进行了应用，试飞结果表明该方法的测量结果与传统测量方法之间的标准差在1.6 dB内，试飞效率提高了66%.     

Inflation Dynamics in a Small Open Economy

We evaluate the empirical performance of forward‐looking models for inflation dynamics in a small open economy. Using likelihood‐based testing procedures, we find that the exact formulation is at odds with Norwegian data. Moreover, some of the parameters in the model are not well identified. We also find that the inexact formulation is not rejected statistically using a test based on a minimum distance method. However, confidence regions also reveal an identification problem with this model. Instead, we find a well‐specified backward‐looking model with imperfect competition underlying the price setting, which is a model that outperforms an alternative forward‐looking model in‐sample. The backward‐looking model also forecasts somewhat better than the alternative forward‐looking model, during and after the recent financial crisis.     

浅谈高职院校射线检测实训的辐射防护

高职院校开设《射线检测实训》主要是进行对无损检测技术中对材料内部的不连续性进行的射线穿透照相法。对于学生在射线检测实训时必须要考虑射线防护问题,本文通过对实训时间安排和实训室屏蔽层厚度上讨论关于安全开展《射线检测实训》需要再注意哪些方面。     

Correcting for survey effects in pre‐election polls

Pre‐election polls can suffer from survey effects, causing biases in forecasted election outcomes. We advocate a simple methodology to estimate the magnitude of survey effects, by collecting data both before and after the election. This method is illustrated by means of a field study with data concerning the 2009 European Parliament elections in the Netherlands. Our study provides empirical evidence of significant positive survey effects with respect to voter participation, especially for individuals with low intention to vote. For our data, the overall survey effect on party shares is small. This effect can be more substantial, for example, if political orientation and voting intention are correlated in the sample.     

Is there a relationship between workplace atmosphere and innovation activities? An empirical analysis among French firms

We examine empirically the relationship between workplace atmosphere and innovation activities. A generalized method of moments estimator of Poisson regression is applied to a set of 5574 observations in French firms. Our estimation results show that firms in which employees report good workplace atmosphere are more likely to engage in innovation activities. Nevertheless, while a positive relationship is found between workplace atmosphere and product/service innovation, other types of innovation activities, namely process, organizational and marketing, are not related to better workplace atmosphere.     

山地地区地表一致性剩余静校正技术应用技巧

山地地区地表和地下地质条件复杂,接收条件差,原始资料信噪比低,做剩余静校正前很难准确的识别有效速度,经过几次速度分析和剩余静校正后,才得到容易辨认的速度,但是由于初始速度和初始静校正量的误差问题,往往剩余静校正的迭代不是收敛的,得不到真实的地下构造形态。只有采用比较合理的求取初始速度方法,才能保证得到真实合理的成像。     

Modeling domestic holiday tourism demand in Australia: Problems and solutions

An econometric model is very useful for understanding the underlying relationship between tourism demand and economic variables such as income and travel prices. However, a long time series horizon of data is essential to run an econometric model that is consistent with economic theory. Although time series data on the number of domestic trips and visitor nights in Australia are available since 1978–79, breaks in the time series in different years have made it difficult to estimate a domestic holiday demand model. It is because the data series in different periods are not directly comparable. In this study, a simple data adjustment technique has been used to obtain comparable data series. Among several econometric demand models, a single equation multivariate time series demand model in a double log linear functional form was found to be the most appropriate and practical model to estimate and analyze the demand parameters of domestic holiday travel in Australia. However, the model with variables in level terms was observed having the “spurious regression problem” which has been corrected using the cointegration and error correction mechanisms. The estimated income and price elasticity of domestic holiday travel demand are consistent with economic theory and therefore can be used for forecasting and other purposes.     

我国沪深300股指期货价格发现功能的实证分析

我国股指期货的推出对证券市场产生了巨大的影响,改变了股票市场缺乏规避系统性风险工具的现状,给金融市场带来新的生机与活力。本文采用协整检验、误差修正模型、方差分解和脉冲响应函数实证分析了我国股票市场和期货市场的价格发现功能。研究发现股指期货在价格发现上占主导地位,表明我国股指期货的推出,增强了市场效率,使市场信息能够更快捷的传达。     

Cointegration analysis of the intensity of the ERM currencies under the European Monetary System

This paper examines the (long-run) intra-zonal elasticities between the spot exchange rates of the deutschemark and other major ERM currencies (French franc, Belgian franc, Dutch guilder, Danish krone, Italian lira and British pound) under the EMS. The findings show that under the fixed-but-adjustable rate system, the hypothesis of no cointegration can be rejected for all chosen ERM currency pairs and unit restriction on zonal elasticities can be accepted for almost all cointegrated currency pairs. On the other hand, under the fixed-rate system, Danish krone, Italian lira and British pound fail the cointegration test and the zonal elasticities for all cointegrated currency pairs are rejected to be unity. The study signifies less intense linkages of the ERM currencies without parity realignments. Finally, the deutschmark took the role of error-correcting process for one cointegrated currency pair under the fixed-but-adjustable-rate system, and it performed the same role for two pairs under the fixed-rate system. Hence, deutschmark should not be assumed a priori statistically exogenous under the EMS