加强基础设施建设,提升中心城区的辐射带动能力

在新型城镇化进程中,加强中心城区的基础设施建设、提升中心城区的承载能力、发挥中心城区的辐射带动作用十分重要。本文在分析了黄河三角洲地区中心城市基础设施建设存在不足的基础上,提出了加强中心城区基础设施建设的看法与建议,旨在为全面提升该区域的城镇化水平提供参考。     

Combining multiple probability predictions using a simple logit model

This paper begins by presenting a simple model of the way in which experts estimate probabilities. The model is then used to construct a likelihood-based aggregation formula for combining multiple probability forecasts. The resulting aggregator has a simple analytical form that depends on a single, easily-interpretable parameter. This makes it computationally simple, attractive for further development, and robust against overfitting. Based on a large-scale dataset in which over 1300 experts tried to predict 69 geopolitical events, our aggregator is found to be superior to several widely-used aggregation algorithms.     

Modeling asymmetric price transmission in the European food market

In this study, we employ a multivariate panel error correction model (PVECM) to investigate asymmetric price transmission among the farm, processor, and retail segments of the European food supply chain for the 2005–2016 period. The results indicate that, in both the long- and short-run, retail prices respond more strongly to processor price increases than decreases and the same occurs for processor prices due to farm price changes. Thus, the findings demonstrate the presence of positive asymmetric price transmission in the European food supply chain. Finally, the results of the present study indicate that the food price pass-through varies greatly across product category and across countries, and that the pass-through to producer prices is greater than that to consumer prices.     

Climate,diseases, and the origins of corruption

It has been commonly observed that tropical countries tend to suffer from intense corruption and underdevelopment. This study provides an explanation for this long-standing disparity across the world based on variation in the intensity of ultraviolet radiation (UV-R). The central hypothesis is that UV-R is positively associated with the (historical) prevalence of eye diseases, which significantly shortens work-life expectancy as a skilled worker. This helps shape the worldwide distribution of corruption by affecting the incumbents' window of opportunity. Using data for up to 139 countries, I consistently find empirical support for the positive relationship between UV-R and corruption. The main findings withstand accounting for numerous alternative explanations for international differences in corruption levels. Employing individual-level data from the World Values Survey, I document suggestive evidence that exposure to UV-R is linked to surveyed respondents' tolerance towards corrupt activities. Furthermore, a subnational analysis for China lends credence to the cross-country evidence.     

Don't ignore the floor: Exploring multisensory atmospheric congruence between music and flooring in a retail environment

In retail environments, consumers commonly evaluate products while standing on some type of flooring and concurrently being exposed to music; however, no study has examined the interaction of these two atmospheric cues. To bridge this gap, this research examines whether retailers can benefit from creating multisensory atmospheric congruent rather than incongruent retail environments of flooring and music. The results of an experiment in a real retail store reveal positive effects of multisensory congruent retail environments (e.g., soft music combined with soft flooring) on product evaluations. This study provides a new process explanation with consumers’ purchase‐related self‐confidence mediating these effects. Specifically, consumers in congruent rather than incongruent retail environments experience more purchase‐related self‐confidence, which in turn leads to more favorable product evaluations. Furthermore, this study shows that consumers with a low rather than a high preference for haptic information are influenced more by multisensory atmospheric congruence when evaluating a product haptically.     

Forecasting the Covid-19 recession and recovery: Lessons from the financial crisis

We consider simple methods to improve the growth nowcasts and forecasts obtained by mixed-frequency MIDAS and UMIDAS models with a variety of indicators during the Covid-19 crisis and recovery period, such as combining forecasts across various specifications for the same model and/or across different models, extending the model specification by adding MA terms, enhancing the estimation method by taking a similarity approach, and adjusting the forecasts to put them back on track using a specific form of intercept correction. Among these methods, adjusting the original nowcasts and forecasts by an amount similar to the nowcast and forecast errors made during the financial crisis and subsequent recovery seems to produce the best results for the US, notwithstanding the different source and characteristics of the financial crisis. In particular, the adjusted growth nowcasts for 2020Q1 get closer to the actual value, and the adjusted forecasts based on alternative indicators become much more similar, all unfortunately indicating a much slower recovery than without adjustment, and very persistent negative effects on trend growth. Similar findings also emerge for forecasts by institutions, for survey forecasts, and for the other G7 countries.     

高等院校足球文化氛围的研究

我国足球水平总上不去，与足球文化氛围不太好有着紧密关系。足球文化氛围先要搞好了，参加足球活动的人增加，踢足球的人多，人才辈出，成绩提高也就水到渠成。校园足球文化应该像金字塔一样，重点在基层。自下而上，形成各班、年级、系部、学校等层面。可以开展小规模的友谊赛，也可以开展中等规模及体协牵头的各种类型的比赛，最高层则是学校的足球联赛。同时领导重视，各职能部门大力支持，体育教学部全力以赴，学生会积极协助，共同努力，才能使校园足球文化蓬勃发展。高校的学生既是运动员的摇篮又是社会的未来精英，高校足球文化氛围的提高，将会对我国足球水平的提高有很大的推进作用。     

中国城市公园的标度律特征分析

科学研判城市公园面积与人口规模的关系,有利于 客观认识和指导城市的可持续发展。采用1996—2019年中 国291个地级及以上城市公园面积与人口规模数据,探究二者 之间的标度关系及其标度因子的时空演化规律,进而采用基于 标度律的公园规模修正模型度量各城市公园面积达到预期值的 程度,并对规模修正指标和人均公园面积进行比较分析,得到 如下结果。1)我国公园面积与人口规模整体呈亚线性规模缩 放关系,公园具有显著规模效应,符合城市标度律特征;时间 上呈现亚线性-超线性-亚线性的阶段性波动演变特征,空间 上分异明显：华南接近线性标度关系,华中、东北、华北、西 南呈典型亚线性关系,华东、西北呈亚线性,但标度因子偏离 度较大。2)大城市在人均公园面积排序中相对靠后,在考虑 规模效应后,排名普遍提高,说明规模修正指标能在消除人口 规模影响的基础上,有效衡量不同规模城市公园面积的水平。 标度律视角下的城市公园规模测度能够为城市人口管理和公园 面积发展的决策提供科学指导,为不同规模城市公园建设提供 可借鉴的比较标准,促进公园与人口的协调发展。     

优化外商直接投资结构的研究——基于行业FDI数据的VAR模型

根据1990—2010年全国国内生产总值（GDP）、FDI在制造业的投资额（FM）、FDI在服务业的投资额（FS）、FDI在房地产业的投资额（FRE）及在教育领域的投资额（FE）的统计数据进行基于VAR模型的实证分析,认为长期看,外商在制造业的投资额（FM）和在服务业的投资额（FS）的增加导致全国GDP的增加,外商在房地产业的投资额（FRE）以及在教育领域的投资额（FE）与GDP反向变动;短期看,对全国经济发展的短期影响程度由高到低,依次是FDI在服务业的投资额（FS）、在制造业的投资额（FM）和在教育领域的投资额（FE）以及在房地产业的投资额（FRE）。建议以国务院颁布的《外商投资产业指导目录》为导向,积极利用外资及优化外商投资结构,在发挥外资对我国经济的积极推动作用的同时尽量减少外资的负面影响。     

浅谈涵洞浆砌工程质量纠正控制措施

近年浆砌工程在重大高速公路应用及其广泛,但施工结束还未交工验收时就出现脱落、裂缝等问题。针对此问题我合同段积极采取实质、外观质量纠正和控制措施,以供大家参考和相互学习。