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31.
In this paper we analyze the existence of nonlinear relationships between macroeconomic fundamentals and exchange rates for some major industrialized countries using an error correction model with time-varying parameters for the post Bretton Woods period. We find that inflation rate differentials with respect to the US inflation rate are the driving forces for the nonlinear relationships in the monetary model for exchange rates for the data from Germany, the UK, Canada, France and Italy. In addition to the variables in the traditional monetary model, also the relative interest rates are relevant in determining exchange rate changes only when the inflation differentials are either very large or very small. In contrast to previous studies we find significant long-run effects in the error correction representation of the monetary model for exchange rates when the nonlinear dynamics is taken into account in the analysis. 相似文献
32.
We consider the estimation of autocovariances using panel data with incidental trends under double asymptotics. The conventional autocovariance estimator suffers from a bias whose value is approximated by twice the long-run variance. We propose a bias-corrected estimator. 相似文献
33.
皖江城市带城市经济联系与中心城市辐射范围分析 总被引:7,自引:1,他引:6
分析经济区内城市间经济联系不仅有利于引导城市的空间发展,而且有利于空间经济的合理组织。以皖江城市带为例,引入克鲁格曼指数、建成区面积、人口素质权重系数等指标修正了以往的引力模型,并利用城市间的日发车班次数据对修正模型进行了检验。在此基础上,利用修正模型确定了各城市的主要对外联系方向及联系强度,采用断裂点公式计算了中心城市的吸引范围。结果表明:①皖江城市带内各城市对外经济联系强度差异较大;②各城市的主要联系方向呈现中心城市指向性和地域相邻指向性特征;③合肥和芜湖为皖江城市带的两个经济中心城市,它们的对外吸引范围较为狭小。 相似文献
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中国城镇化水平和就业结构关系的协整分析 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
本文利用协整理论、误差修整模型和Granger因果检验理论,对中国三次产业就业比重与城镇化水平之间关系进行了对比分析,结果表明二者之间是长期均衡关系;城镇化水平的提高促进了第一、二产业就业结构的调整;第三产业就业规模的快速发展促进了城镇化建设。 相似文献
36.
Using a generalized error correction model, this article measures and compares market integration for export cash crops versus imported food crops for Mali and Nicaragua, and computes transmission elasticities between changes in the goods’ border and domestic prices. Both Mali and Nicaragua obtain the bulk of their export revenue from a particular agricultural commodity—cotton for Mali and coffee for Nicaragua—and both import the same key staple food of rice. To reap the economic gains from this trade specialization, the two countries’ agriculture must be well‐integrated into world markets. The two countries present an important policy contrast that affects their degree of world market integration and price transmission. In Mali, a parastatal enterprise controls its cotton industry, while Nicaragua has less state direction over agriculture. Reflecting this difference, the results show that for both its main export and import commodity, Nicaragua is more integrated into world markets and has higher price transmission than Mali. The results for Nicaragua also show much higher integration and price transmission for its main agricultural export (coffee) than its major import (rice). 相似文献
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FDI、国际贸易及我国经济增长的协整分析与VECM模型 总被引:22,自引:0,他引:22
本文利用我国1983-2004年的经济数据进行实证检验,根据协整理论建立向量误差修正模型(VECM)。实证结果说明外国直接投资、国际贸易与经济增长间具有长期均衡关系,且我国国内生产总值的增长与外国直接投资有双向因果关系,但相互影响的程度不同;我国为出口导向型经济增长国家且外国直接投资对国际贸易具有促进作用. 相似文献
39.
Price relationships between qualitatively differentiated agricultural products: organic and conventional wheat in Germany 下载免费PDF全文
Organic agriculture, which produces commodities that can be qualitatively differentiated from conventional food products, has grown into an important market in many countries. The dynamics of commodity prices in both sectors are partly interdependent, but are also shaped by independent determinants and have rarely been studied. We analyze organic food markets and their interdependencies with conventional markets in the context of wheat markets in Germany, which have been subject to a number of fundamental changes during the last two decades. Based on institutional market characteristics, we suggest a flexible Markov‐switching asymmetric time series model. We find a pronounced temporal sequence of market phases that differ in their asymmetric dynamics and the extent to which the organic price is influenced by the conventional price. Organic wheat prices tend to be increasingly connected to prices of conventional wheat. 相似文献
40.
划定基本农田对保障粮食安全有重要意义,而合理评价耕地综合质量是基本农田划定的重要前提与基础。以江苏省高邮市周山镇为例,基于耕地质量分等更新成果,从区位条件、便利条件和空间形态条件三方面构建了修正因素体系,并采用加权修正法测算了耕地的综合质量指数,最终根据上级政府给周山镇下达的基本农田保护面积,按综合质量指数的高低确定了入选基本农田的耕地。研究结果表明:周山镇耕地修正后的综合质量指数范围为2562-2735,指数≥2613的耕地入选基本农田,其面积为31.34 hm2;入选基本农田的耕地空间分布范围与现状相比更能满足国家对基本农田划定的要求。 相似文献