信贷渠道对我国股票市场的影响

信贷渠道是我国货币政策主要的传导渠道。货币政策通过传导渠道对股票市场产生影响。本文运用协整与基于向量自回归模型的格兰杰因果检验和预测方差分解等时间序列分析方法,实证分析信贷渠道对股票市场的影响,结果表明信贷渠道对我国股票市场产生显著的负相关影响。     

我国黄金期货市场价格发现与套期保值功能——基于ARDL-ECM模型

文章收集了2011-2013年的黄金期货和现货价格数据,采用ARDL-ECM模型分析我国黄金期货价格和现货价格之间的长期均衡和短期动态关系。研究表明:我国黄金期货市场具有完美且有效的套期保值功能,但尚不具有价格发现功能,其运行效率有待提高。     

扭曲的增值税制及其矫正

与国际通行的增值税制相比,我国增值税制存在着与营业税分立、非全面性、半消费型、税率繁杂、有限出口退税、重复征税等扭曲性,矫正之策是,制定《增值税法》,全面推行营业税改征增值税,全面建立完全消费型增值税,并实行增值税的统一征管。     

改革开放以来影响广东省外贸出口因素的实证分析

本文分析了广东省外贸出口与进口、FDI、出口对象国的经济增长及人民币名义汇率等影响因素的长期均衡关系,然后分析了短期中广东省外贸出口量对各影响因素波动的反应。得出结论:长期中,广东省出口额与外国收入、进口额、人民币名义汇率之间存在着正相关关系,而短期内进口额和人民币名义汇率对出口影响较大。     

An empirical analysis of China's equilibrium exchange rate: A co-integration approach

This paper estimates time specific values for China's long-run equilibrium exchange rate and develops measures of the direction and extent of misalignment based on a reduced-form real effective exchange rate (REER) model. An appropriately specified long-run equilibrium model is estimated and tested following Johansen and Juselius (1990) procedures, which is then used to construct an estimated time path for long-run equilibrium exchange rate values.Unit root tests indicated that each series can be considered as I(1) and that there was one cointegrating relationship linking the RMB series with its “fundamentals” – openness, money supply, productivity and government spending – with long-run elasticities of (0.41), (0.97), (0.51) and (0.75), respectively. The estimated error-correction model of REER determination showed that during China's latest exchange rate regime (from 2005:Q3) the RMB was undervalued by an average of 6.7 percent, which is modest compared to related studies.Estimation of the associated short-run error correction model shows that the error correction term has a statistically significant value of 0.85, implying that the actual real effective exchange rates would converge relatively quickly (just over one quarter, on average) towards their long-run equilibrium level in the absence of central bank intervention.     

都市圈经济辐射效应的协方差分析——以上海都市圈为例

基于县级市数据,通过协方差分析等统计方法,研究了上海都市圈内中心城市对周边城市的经济辐射效应以及对相关市场的带动效应。结论表明,上海对其都市圈内的城市有显著的经济辐射效应,对相关市场的带动效应明显。     

NGO在我国发展所面临的问题及对策研究

在国际上,以非营利、非官方为特色的NGO组织在环保、卫生、慈善和公共事务方面日益发挥着重要的作用。然而,NGO在我国的出现还只有数年时间,在政策法规、管理模式和发展方向上不甚明确,还存在着诸多的问题。在本文中,通过回顾我国NGO组织的发展历程、现行状况,梳理我国NGO发展的典型模式。同时,对于NGO的发展壮大遇到的问题进行了分析,并提出了解决的方法。     

Estimating multimodal public transport mode shares in Athens,Greece

We analyze market shares for each public transport mode in total public transport ridership for the multimodal public transportation system of Athens, Greece. This analysis provides useful information for making investment decisions concerning the public transport infrastructure and for allocating subsidies. Due to the non-stationary properties of the data, cointegration techniques are applied to investigate the long run equilibrium relationships. Error Correction Models are implemented to estimate short run dynamics as well as the speed of adjustment from the short to the long run. Results suggest that fare and GDP are the main determinants of the public transport mode shares both in the short and in the long run. Findings also indicate the role of total ridership fluctuations in explaining variations in public transport mode shares.     

富氮气调在储粮应用中的问题探讨

通过分析现行富氮气调储粮过程中存在的某些问题,提出解决方案,降低富氮气调储粮运行成本,提高富氮气调储粮的经济效益。     

Consumption smoothing in Russia1

Using a panel from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (1994–2004), this paper investigates to what extent Russian households have been able to maintain their living standards while suffering income shocks. Consumption smoothing is modelled by means of an equilibrium correction mechanism, which disentangles short‐run dynamics and long‐run equilibrium adjustments. GMM estimation is used to control for individual household effects in the presence of dynamics. Additionally, we differentiate between food and non‐food consumption, positive and negative shocks, rural and urban areas, and several levels of poverty risk. We find that dynamics are important in the consumption equation, and that estimates are sensitive to imputation errors in home food production. No strong claims can be made regarding heterogeneity in smoothing behaviour.