Adolphe Quetelet,the average man and the development of economic methodology *

Abstract

Quetelet's contribution to statistics has received adequate attention in Stigler (1986 Stigler, S. M. 1986. The History of Statistics. The Measurement of Uncertainty before 1900, Cambridge & London, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar], 1999 Stigler, S. M. 1999. Statistics on the Table. The History of Statistical Concepts and Methods, Cambridge & London, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]) and Porter's (1986) seminal works on the history of that scientific discipline. 24 24 See also Westergaard (1932 Westergaard, H. 1932. Contributions to the History of Statistics, London: King & Son.  [Google Scholar]: 167–70), Klein (1997 Klein, J. 1997. Statistical Visions in Time. A History of Time Series Analysis 1662–1938, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.  [Google Scholar]: 122–31). Our contribution investigates Quetelet's influence on economic methodology. Other scholars have already investigated his influence on econometrics and empirical economics (Morgan 1990 Morgan, M. S. 1995. The History of Econometric Ideas, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [1990] [Google Scholar], Stigler 1999 Stigler, S. M. 1999. Statistics on the Table. The History of Statistical Concepts and Methods, Cambridge & London, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]), but we argue that his influence on theoretical economics should be considered significant as well. We devote attention to Quetelet's concept of the ‘average man’. For this purpose we briefly summarize Quetelet's methodology and examine the evolution of his ideas as expressed in his published works. We then investigate his influence on Jevons's ‘calculus of pleasures and pains’ and on the statistical investigations of the German historical school. We argue that the history of statistics, and especially Quetelet's contribution, should not be neglected by historians of economic thought as it provides important insights into the development of economic methodology.     

基于案例观察的交易主体异质性对水权价格的影响

基于国家交易平台实例,运用回归模型和调节效应实证研究了水权交易价格影响因素,结果表明:受让方地区GDP越低,人均水资源占有量越低,交易主体所处行业平均利润率越高,水权交易价格越高,同时,人均水资源占有量对水权交易价格的作用机制受到交易主体所处行业平均利润率的调节作用。以农业-工业这一主体类别为基组参照类,当交易发生在农户和农户之间时,人均水资源占有量对水权交易价格的负面影响会削弱;当交易发生在政府与政府之间时,人均水资源占有量对水权交易价格的负面影响会进一步增强。     

东北地区近30年来温度变化的时空差异

[目的]东北地区作为我国响应全球气候变暖最为显著的地区之一,21世纪以来是否与全球及北半球的气候变化一致,发生了变暖趋势减缓或停滞?[方法]为了问答该问题,基于黑吉辽3省71个气象站1981~2010年的气温资料,采用时间序列分析法、克里金插值法,分析东北地区近30年来年际、年代际的年均温和生长季温度的时间变化与空间分布特征,以及冬季温度的数值变化。[结果](1)东北地区30年来年均温在波动中呈上升趋势,3省的变化具有同步性;(2)年均温在1991~2000年的增温区域面积扩大显著,尤其是年均温范围为2~4℃的区域向4~6℃变化,但在2001~2010年,年均温的增加趋势减缓、增温区域较少;(3)生长季温度呈明显的上升趋势,1991~2000年与1981~1990年相比升温幅度达到1.4~1.5℃,2001~2010年与1991~2000年相比达到2.3~2.4℃;(4)生长季温度增温区域有明显北移趋势,变化最大的是生长季温度范围为14~16℃的区域向16~18℃变化;(5)2000年后暖冬年份减少,3省冬季温度的增温幅度减小。[结论]2000年以来东北生长季(夏、秋季)温度仍具有明显的增温趋势,但"暖冬"现象减弱,导致年均温增幅的减缓。     

甘肃省各地市人均GDP的马尔可夫预测及变动分析

根据甘肃的实际情况和国内比较普遍的观点,将其14个地市的人均GDP情况划分为5种状态,然后使用Markov方法建立一个预测其各地市人均GDP在10年和20年后发展状况的分析模型,利用此模型对甘肃各地市人均GDP的演化和变化情况进行了科学的分析和预测。它对研究甘肃各地市的经济发展和保持各地市经济发展的均衡,实施宏观调控具有一定的参考价值。     

基于主成分分析法的特征价格模型

将主成分分析法与特征价格模型相结合,对房地产项目的销售均价进行定价。解决了分析样本数据少、部分特征属性间相关性强的问题;建立了住宅项目的特征定价模型。通过实证分析,验证出模型的效果较好,可用于确定新建项目的销售均价。     

基于“共享式增长”的京津冀商贸物流产业新体系构建

基于"共享式增长"理念,运用投入产出模型及APL模型优化了京津冀商贸物流产业关联机制,并据此构建了京津冀商贸物流产业新体系。研究发现:北京的商贸物流业与其服务业和技术产业的关联密切,天津的商贸物流业与其制造业和金融业的联动发展较好,河北的商贸物流业与其制造业、采掘业和农林牧渔业的关联效应显著;北京的商贸物流发展趋于饱和,河北商贸物流业的产业关联结构相比天津更加均衡,其产业波及效应提升也更加明显。提出建议:为实现京津冀的资源与发展成果共享,京津在满足本地商贸物流需求的同时,应将部分商贸物流企业转移至河北,同时给予相关技术、资金支持;河北应承担起京津冀的主要商贸物流建设,完善商贸物流产业关联机制,加快发展工业品、采选品和农产品等专项商贸物流,保障对京津生产生活原料的供给。     

协调消费与投资的税收手段——对社会保障税的分析

投资高位运行是我国这几年宏观经济的特征之一,相比之下消费却没有大的变化。本文从税收角度,尤其是从给居民带来长期保障的社会保障税入手来分析其在消费与投资中的作用,主要是对扩大消费的作用,并对我国社会保障税的开征提出了几点建议。即:①在设置模式上我国可以继续沿用现有的项目型社会保障税;②在纳税人覆盖方面,应以集体企业、乡镇企业、私营企业、民营企业、其他企业及与其建立劳动关系的职工、外商投资企业及与其建立劳动关系的中方职工为主体;③在课税对象和计税依据方面,可以采用以纳税人支付的工薪总额或取得的工薪收入份额为对象。     

Testification on Effectiveness of Average or Weight-added Internal Rate of Return

It seems that an effective way of how to make the right choice of Various investment projects is based on the theory of average internal income rate, or the theory of weight-added internal income rate. With several examples of numerical value, this paper proves that this method is not as effective as expected, but indirectly testifies that only with the principle of maximization of NPV that independent projects can be the best combination of projects with limited investment that is achieved.     

Structural information in recursive VAR orderings

This paper investigates structural models that will permit a Cholesky decomposition of the covariance matrix of VAR residuals to identify some structural impulse response functions. Cholesky decompositions are found to be useful identification tools for the set of partially recursive structural models. A partially recursive structure is defined as any block recursive system where the equations in one block can be recursively ordered and where the structural shocks are uncorrelated. Using this class of models, we derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the moving average representation from a Cholesky decomposition to identify structure. The paper concludes by discussing implications of these results for empirical research.     

浅议算数平均数与强度相对数不同之处

算术平均数和强度相对数是两个在统计学中常用的综合指标,也是学生容易混淆的指标。必须把这两者之间的区别弄清楚,才能在实际工作和生活中运用自如。