利用改进的ARMA模型来预测供应链中的需求

本文介绍了ARMA模型的基本原理，分析了ARMA模型在市场需求预测中的不足，进行改进。并通过应用实例说明了改进的ARMA模型应用于需求预测过程的具体步骤和实施难点。     

重庆市区域创新能力与人力资源的关系——基于四个直辖市的对比研究

人力资源在区域创新体系中发挥着重要作用,是决定区域创新能力的决定性因素。文章首先对四个直辖市的区域创新能力进行了量化,然后用人均受教育年限来衡量人力资源综合素质,进而研究了人力资源综合素质与区域创新能力的关系,通过实证分析的结果,从人力资源受教育年限的角度给出了如何提升区域创新能力的建议。     

Estimating survivor function using optimally selected order statistics

This paper deals with the estimation of survivor function using optimally selected order statistics when the sample sizen is large. We use the estimates (μ*,σ*) based on the optimum set of order statistics for largen and fixedk (≤n) such that the estimate has optimum variance property. The asymptotic relative efficiency of such an estimator is compared with the one based on the complete sample. The general theory of the problem and specific details with respect to a two-parameter Normal, Logistic, Exponential and Pareto distributions is considered as an example.     

广义欧式加权算术平均价格一揽子期权定价

本文在一揽子期权（Basket Options）定价理论的基础上，对期权的标的价格引入跳跃一扩散过程进行建模，用几何布朗运动描述其动态变化过程，用Possion过程刻画资产价格受新的信息和稀有偶发时间的冲击所发生跳跃的计数过程，用对数正态随机变量描述跳跃对应的跳跃幅度，有模型限定下，运用Ito-Skorohod微分公式和等价鞅测度变换，得出加权算术平均价格一揽子期权的一个推广的解析定价公式。     

An Example of Data Technology Product: A Control Chart for Weibull Processes

This work proposes a new Shewhart-type control chart of the Weibull percentile (i.e. the reliable life) as a practical example of a product attained following the Data Technology (DT) approach. DT is briefly introduced as a new discipline defined apart from Information Technology (IT). Following this approach, some specific Bayes estimators are selected from literature and then used to build the above new chart. These estimators allow to improve the control making use of any available kind of data (statistical and non-statistical). The operative steps of DT approach are fully explained. The results are illustrated by means of a real applicative example.     

开放式基金投资者择时能力的实证研究

基于开放式基金的净现金流数据,系统研究了我国基金投资者的择时能力。研究结果显示,我国的基金投资者并不具备良好的择时能力,在基金收益波动比较大时,投资者的择时能力表现更差。通过与美国的研究结果进行比较发现,我国基金投资者的择时能力比美国基金投资者差很多。     

A SHORT NOTE ON SECOND-ORDER STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE PRESERVING COHERENT RISK MEASURES

We improve results on law invariant coherent risk measures satisfying the Fatou property due to Kusuoka (2001; Adv. Math. Econ . 3, 83–95) by considering risk measures which are in addition second order stochastic dominance preserving. In particular, we derive a representation result for such risk measures.     

The Theory-Practice Gap in Capital Budgeting: Evidence from the United Kingdom

We report the results of a survey of capital budgeting techniques used by United Kingdom firms. Where possible, the evidence is combined with data collected over a 22 year period to provide a basis for the discussion of causes of trends. We observe that there has been a substantial narrowing of the theory-practice gap in the use of project appraisal methods. The gap has also narrowed in other areas: the analysis of risk, inflation adjustment, capital budget preparation, WACC calculation and post-auditing. However, there are other elements of capital budgeting theory, e.g. probability and beta analysis which have been adopted by very few practising managers. We also discuss non-economic projects, capital rationing and hurdle rates.     

2008年5月银行间市场运行报告

2008年5月,银行间外汇、货币、债券、利率和汇率衍生品市场整体运行平稳,Shibor整体小幅上升,基准性进一步体现;利率和汇率衍生品市场交易量增幅明显;人民币兑美元汇率在绕七波动后再次走低,5月人民币兑美元升值0.76%。     

Two dimensional bidding in land use

The Chinese first land use right transferring case by competitive bidding on both land price and housing price is studied. Based on game theory, we generalized the bidding rules. Firstly, the attributes used in the scoring rule should have little correlative. Secondly, the attributes＇ reference point values used in the scoring function may be acquired by information fusion methods. After removing extreme values from the scoring function, the odd result of the studied case could be avoid.