The impact of terrorism on European tourism

This paper estimates the influence of terrorist attacks on European tourism through the short-term post hoc response of the airline industry and passengers. We use a seasonally-adjusted ARMA-GARCH methodology on unique datasets that examine changes in tourism as measured by ASKs, seats filled and changes in both fares and revenues. Traffic flows are found to fall despite significant fare reductions; however, this response varies substantially based on the flight origin and ticket-type purchased. We found that business travel slows substantially due to duty of care legislation for corporate transport. While we found evidence indicating substantial airline fare reductions, in the majority of investigated cases this response was unable to mitigate substantial reductions in passenger demand and flows across varying ticket types.     

客运量的合成预测与概率模型

为适应交通运输业的发展,将运输需求的合成预测方法引入铁路客运量预测中,结合铁路客运量具有双峰形态分布随机变量的特点,对预测概率模型进行改进,得出“十五”末期铁路客运量的预测值,以及铁路月度客运量频率散点图和拟合概率曲线,为铁路运输的宏观指导、组织协调和生产、建设提供依据。     

‘It Does Not Harm the Environment!’ An Analysis of Industry Discourses on Tourism,Air Travel and the Environment

While a substantial part of the population in Europe seems well informed about the phenomenon of climate change, uncertainty seems to prevail in terms of its seriousness, its consequences for society and action that needs to be taken in order to prevent ‘dangerous interference with the climate system’. Many people seem to believe that there is no scientific consensus about climate change and that individual behavioural change is irrelevant in the face of uncertainty. Such a ‘psychology of denial’ seems particularly strong in the context of air travel, the fastest growing transport sector. This paper seeks to understand this phenomenon by analysing the discourses surrounding air travel. Four major industry discourses are identified: air travel is energy efficient and accounts only for marginal emissions of CO₂; air travel is economically and socially too important to be restricted; fuel use is constantly minimized and new technology will solve the problem, and air travel is treated unfairly in comparison to other means of transport. The validity of these claims is evaluated based on data and material presented in the scientific literature. Results show that there are substantial gaps between the discourses and the reality of aviation's environmental performance, which might partially explain the controversial understanding of air travel and its environmental consequences among the public.     

A GHG reduction obligation for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) in the EU and in Germany

Despite various legal drivers already in place, a large-scale use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) is still missing. Thus, bringing SAF for GHG reduction reasons into the day-to-day business more effective market injection mechanisms are needed. In this context, direct and indirect effects of a greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction obligation in the EU and in Germany are analysed, considering an obligation level of 2% in 2023 increasing stepwise to 10% by 2030 following the goals derived from transport-related RED II targets. For such GHG reduction obligations referred to the entire EU 27 and the entire German aviation fuel uplifts, obligation induced SAF demands possibly exceed future SAF production quantities by a factor of about two without effective capacity expansion exceeding the published expansion plans. The considered SAF options lead to an aviation fuel price increases of 5–45% referring to a conventional aviation fuel price of 550 €/t. Aviation related EU ETS and German aviation tax revenues are mostly insufficient to significantly cover obligation-induced SAF costs or additional fuel costs. Fostering a broad spectrum of SAF technologies will thus require obligation related sub-mechanisms, due to (significantly) different SAF compliance costs. Thereby, sub-mandates represent the most effective approach. In terms of obligation avoidance measures, tankering – in contrast to three re-routing options considered – is likely to be economically feasible for airlines and requires appropriate countermeasures.     

民航绿色服务产品选择意愿的影响因素研究——基于游戏化理论

基于游戏化理论,从航空旅客视角出发,结合民航绿色服务产品,探索旅客选择民航绿色服务产品的影响因素。通过采用有序Logit回归分析法,实证分析发现,关系元素、反馈与挑战、组件元素、竞争元素显著正向影响旅客对民航绿色服务产品的选择。民航企业可以通过运用关键游戏化元素设计民航绿色服务产品,以提高旅客的选择意愿。     

中国碳试点市场集中交易行为的理论研究

通过构建一个代表性控排企业跨期决策理论模型,分析碳配额交易企业在履约日与非履约日的最优交易量。均衡结果显示,企业在非履约日的最优交易量与其自身的风险规避系数、市场流动性提供者的风险规避系数、履约日随机碳需求的标准差成正比,而与企业的碳产出效率成反比。在此基础上,探讨了中国碳交易试点市场上履约日附近交易量巨大,而非履约日交易量稀少的原因,并提出相关政策建议,以帮助实现我国碳市场交易量的平滑及整体市场效率的提升。     

Visual Effects of Variety and Area Saliency on Food Product Volume Estimates

This paper aims to assess the combined effects of variety and area saliency on consumer estimates of product volume. In the first of two studies, we examine the effect of color variety on perceived quantity estimates of cereal in a bowl. In addition, this study was designed to determine if the saliency of the area occupied by the cereal in the bowl moderates any effect of color variety. The second study utilizes a matching task to determine if product variety and area saliency cause consumers to pour more cereal into bowls due to perceptual errors in volume estimation. Findings reveal that consumers use visual cues of area saliency first when approximating quantity. When area saliency cues are removed, consumers base quantity approximations on visual cues provided by product variety. This suggests that container design plays an important role in perceived quantity expectations by moderating the influence of perceived variety.     

冀东港口经济贡献的实证研究

港口是推动国际贸易发展的重要基础设施,也是间接推动区域乃至国家经济发展的重要条件,鹿特丹港、纽约港、东京港等国际大港在推动各自国家崛起中的重要作用都充分说明了这一点。河北省是我国环渤海经济圈的重要成员,秦皇岛港、唐山港、黄骅港都是环渤海港口群的重要组成部分,如何建设和利用这些冀东港口推动区域经济又好又快发展成为亟待研究的课题。     

木薯干灌包系统计量方式改造

通过对木薯干灌包系统机械和电气部分的改造,解决了由于木薯干容重复化较大灌包不满的现象,提高了灌包效率,减少了包装袋使用数量。     

供给侧结构性改革下航空物流供应链创新攻略与实施路径

分析我国航空物流供应链的供需现状,从供给侧角度指出其供应链整体水平较低、基础设施系统薄弱、供应链管理分散、整条链的运作成本高和缺少灵活性等问题。结合供给侧结构性改革和航空物流供应链的特点,提出从生产要素投入和全要素生产率提高等方面改革我国航空物流供应链和航空物流供应链纵向一体化整合的具体实施路径。