国有商业银行信贷评级模型的构建及实证检验

信贷评级是信贷风险管理的前提,目前我国国有商业银行都采用这一方式管理信贷风险.本文在对国有商业银行当前信用评级方法存在问题和国内外相关研究成果进行分析的基础上,提出了构建国有商业银行内部信用评级模型,提高信贷风险管理水平的建议.作者利用贷款历史数据,通过因子分析和聚类分析等方法构建内部信用评级模型;通过因子分析方法构建的模型使评级指标体系更加科学、合理,避免了反映风险信息的冗余与遗漏;聚类分析使评级模型直接与违约概率挂钩,度量风险的准确性进一步提高.论文最后对模型进行了实证分析,使其有效性得到了检验.     

Influence of cultural factors on price clustering and price resistance in China's stock markets

This paper builds on prior research by analysing the impact of cultural factors on both price clustering and price resistance in China's stock markets. The results support the presence of cultural factors impacting on price clustering with the digit 8 showing a higher propensity for clustering and the digits 4 and 7 showing a lower propensity in the A‐share market, where stock is denominated in renminbi and traded by mainland Chinese. These results are further supported by an analysis of the B‐share market, where cultural factors have no (or less) impact on the price of Chinese stocks traded by foreign investors in US dollars (or in Hong Kong dollars). A range of measures for price resistance show the digits 0 and 5 to be significant resistance points in the A‐share market. Although digit 8 cannot be considered as a resistance point, its resistance level is highest among the remaining numbers. In conclusion, cultural factors help to explain not only price clustering in the Chinese stock markets but price resistance levels as well, albeit at a weak level.     

Playing in the Posthuman Band: Toward an Aesthetics of Intra-Action in Musical Leisure

Abstract

In this article we use ideas from theorists associated with the “new materialist” or “posthuman” turns in contemporary philosophy in order to challenge the conception of the musical subject posited in aesthetic contemplation advanced by what we term the “pedagogical music world,” and to pursue the possibilities afforded by an aesthetics of intra-action exemplified in practices of the musical “jam.” We return to ancient Greek conceptions of music and leisure (mousikē and scholē), mediated by posthuman theoretical concerns in an examination of the nature of musical affect to argue that an aesthetics of intra-action necessitates a distributed and immanent notion of musical agency rather than individual and transcendent one. Through this discussion, we attempt to trouble the ideas put forth by the pedagogical music world to illuminate leisure potential as imagined in the “posthuman band.”     

一种基于自适应相似矩阵的谱聚类算法

为了消除在构建谱聚类算法的相似矩阵时,高斯核函数中尺度参数的波动影响,构建了一种自适应相似矩阵,并应用到谱聚类算法中。自适应相似矩阵中数据点间的距离度量采用测地距离算法,相距较近的两点间的距离近似于欧氏距离,相距较远的两点则先根据欧氏距离得到每个数据点的k个近邻点,然后累加近邻点的测地距离,由此得到每对数据点间的最短距离。两点间的局部密度用共享近邻的定义来表示,更好地刻画了数据集的本征结构。在5个人工数据集和国际通用UCI数据库中的5个真实数据集上进行实验。实验结果表明,所提算法的聚类准确率高于对比算法的准确率,对复杂分布数据有很强的自适应能力。研究成果为数据挖掘及机器学习提供了思路和方法。     

Early-warning analysis for currency crises in emerging markets: A revisit with fuzzy clustering

Currency crises, also often called balance-of-payment crises, occur when massive capital outflows force a country to devalue or float its currency. The world-wide integration of capital markets since the 1980s and 1990s has increased the degree of capital mobility, which also determined a substantial turbulence in foreign exchange markets and frequent currency crises. In this paper, we explore advanced supporting instruments for predicting currency crises, based on an empirical study of the currency crisis episodes in 23 emerging markets around the world during the second half of last century. More specifically, we investigate the usefulness of prediction models built based on the fuzzy c-means method. First we build clustering models that partition data into a certain number of overlapping natural groups. Thereafter, we classify the data clusters into early-warning clusters and tranquil clusters. We compare the performance of our models with a conventional c-means clustering model and a benchmark probit model. The results show that the proposed models achieve a similar level of out-of-sample performance as the probit model and c-means model. The fuzzy approach also introduces additional explanatory advantages into the early-warning analysis process. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Multi-Agent View of Strategic Planning Using Group Support Systems and Artificial Intelligence

The strategic planning process is dynamic and complex. Including a Group Support System (GSS) in the problem-solving process can improve the content quality of the strategic plan by allowing increased participation by more members of the organization. However, it can also add to the complexity of the problem by increasing the quantity of textual information that can result from group activity. Added complexity increases cognitive overload and frustrations of those participants negotiating the contents of the strategic plan. This article takes a multi-agent view of the strategic planning process. It considers group participants as multiple agents concerned with the content quality of the strategic plan. The facilitator agent is responsible for guiding groups in the strategic plan construction process as well as for solving process problems such as cognitive overload. We introduce an AI Concept Categorizer agent, a software tool that supports the facilitator in addressing the process problem of cognitive overload associated with convergent group activities by synthesizing group textual output into conceptual clusters. The implementation of this tool reduces frustrations which groups encounter in the process of classifying textual output and provides more time for discussion of the concepts themselves. Because of the large amount of convergent activity necessary for strategic planning, the addition of the AI Concept Categorizer to the strategic planning process should increase the quality of the strategic plan and the buy-in of the participants in the strategic planning process.     

S波段高稳锁相振荡源研究

本文阐述了用数字锁相的方法完成Ｓ波段频率源，分析了锁相环的频谱特性；并对输出信号进行了测试，其相位噪声指标￡（１０ｋＨｚ）〈－９３ｄＢｃ／Ｈｚ，杂散抑制〈－６５ｄＢｃ，输出功率大于１０ｍＷ。     

船载USB距离零值标校数据分析

目前统一S波段(USB)系统距离零值标校方法所考虑的设备组合非常多，但存在可精简的地方。本文分析了某次任务系统距离零值标校数据，从实际应用的角度探讨了精简标校组合的初步设想。     

对产业集群的反思

产业集群研究的一个重点就是探索集群存在的原因,西方学者倾向性地认为产业集群是竞争优势的重要来源。文章通过文献资料法和对比批判论证法对国外案例进行批判性分析来重新探讨西方主流观点的合理性。研究结果表明,功能性聚集和物理性聚集有着本质区别。以此为立足点来说明是否采用集群发展这个模式应该结合当地的具体实际情况来进行具体分析,切莫盲目模仿。     

中小板上市公司债务融资效率研究

基于江苏省20家中小板上市公司的面板数据,采用聚类和数据包络分析相结合的方法,对这些公司进行债务融资效率分析。研究表明,中小板企业在融入资产的配置效率方面更为关注自身盈利状况和成长前景,而没有充分认识到节约融资成本的重要性,从而导致企业债务融资效率偏低。对此,我国中小板企业应充分发挥债务融资的杠杆作用,优化资本结构,通过强强联合和以强带弱的途径分散经营风险,在扩大规模效益的基础上持续增强企业盈利能力。