金融危机对巴塞尔新资本协议和商业银行风险管理的挑战

正在影响着世界的金融危机,在考验商业银行自身的风险管理能力的同时,也挑战了全球银行业赖以为标准的巴塞尔新资本协议。本文旨在从危机爆发的原因出发,封新资本协议关于银行的风险管理方面的规定进行分析,以及在金融全球化的大环境下,中国的银行业应该如何应对危机。     

On the origin and rise of central bank independence in West Germany∗

Abstract

This paper investigates the (re-)establishment of central banking in West Germany after 1945 and the history of the Bundesbank Act of 1957. The main focus is on the early emphasis on central bank independence, which at the time represented a German peculiarity. The paper inquires whether contemporary German economic thought may have provided a theoretical case for this peculiar tradition and scrutinizes the political calculus that motivated some key actors in the play. Contrary to conventional wisdom, important contradictions between the postulate of central bank independence and Ordoliberalism are identified.

JEL Classification Codes: B22, B31, E50     

HIV/AIDS AND BANKING STABILITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

We argue that the recent large increase in deposits’ turnover in many developing countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence is associated with the spread of the disease. The point is that the need to pay for individual treatments force large‐scale withdrawals of households’ deposits, and that those large withdrawals put the banking industry at risk. In a standard demand‐deposit model where the HIV/AIDS prevalence among depositors is random, we show that (1) the probability of a large‐scale banking failure without a bank run increases as the odds of any prevalence level increases, and (2) it is always optimal to deposit, and thus to accept the risk of banking failure, to maintain long‐term investments in place.     

Uncertainty and the slowdown of capital accumulation in Europe

The slowdown in the process of capital formation in continental Europe in the 1990s is analysed. Sector-level data from the OECD's International Sectoral Data Base (ISDB) are used. Econometric estimates of an investment function indicate structural instability in the early 1990s and, specifically, a break in the coefficient linking the growth of capital stock to demand. This result neither seems to be related to non-linearities in the relationship between capital formation and expected demand, nor to the sectoral composition of European economies. Evidence is found that the drop in the accelerator is at least partly attributable to greater demand uncertainty in the 1990s as compared with the earlier period.     

外资银行贷款损失准备金监管比较研究与启示

贷款损失准备金是与资本充足率、贷款质量分类紧密联系的银行审慎监管重要指标。本文通过对比我国和有关国家银行法中有关外资银行贷款损失准备金的监管规定,指出主要应从三方面完善现有贷款损失准备金制度体系,一是加强监管机构对外资银行准备金计提、管理的监督;二是应根据外资银行法律地位的不同,在与外资银行母国签订双边监管合作协议的框架下,对外资银行子行、合资银行和分行提出不同的贷款损失准备金要求;三是增加国家风险因素的考虑。     

公共治理理论及对银行监管的启示

当前银行业监管面临着监管失灵的困境,根本原因是监管理念的滞后,形势的需要召唤着新型的银行监管理念。公共治理理论以其理论的先进性在全球范围内迅速兴起并日益成为一门显学。把公共治理理论引入银行监管领域,或许能带给银行监管工作有益的启示。     

产权、市场结构与中国银行业绩效

本文引入产权结构变量修正了传统的SCP(结构—行为—绩效)分析框架,并基于该框架利用截面数据模型实证分析了2000-2004年间以产权改革为主导的中国银行业绩效的影响因素。实证结果表明,产权结构单一和行业过于集中是影响银行业效率和绩效提升的两个主要因素;产权和市场结构对国有商业银行和股份制商业银行绩效影响是不同的,产权结构和市场机构对国有商业银行绩效影响显著,而对于股份制商业银行,市场结构对绩效的影响更大。因此,当前银行业改革在侧重于产权改革的同时不能忽视行业市场结构的优化。     

略论中国银行业创新的路径选择

文章首先分析了中国金融业的结构性缺陷,其次分析了中国民营中小企业贷款难的形成和原因,最后提出了通过创办民营中小银行这一金融机构来解决以下三个问题:当前银行业的结构性缺陷、民营企业贷款难和民营经济在金融领域中的发展问题。     

中国银行业改革开放与金融安全

准确把握金融安全的内涵，是分析判断国有银行改革中引进境外战略投资者是否影响中国金融安全的前提和基础。金融安全所要求的是一种宏观整体上的安全、是动态发展的安全状态。在中国银行业改革开放、引进战略投资者以及维护金融安全等一系列问题上，我们必须保持清醒的头脑和高度的警惕，这是加快金融体制改革、推进国有商业银行股份制改革的需要，也是防范系统性金融风险、维护金融稳定和安全的需要。中国银行业在改革开放的全过程中，需要始终坚持积极、稳妥、高效的基本原则。