企业改革30年:管理层激励效应——基于上市公司的样本分析

本文先以2002～2004年数据为基础,检验了中国管理层持股的内生性,并确认了管理层持股对公司绩效存在倒U型影响,同时对公司风险存在正U型影响。在证监会颁布《上市公司股权激励计划管理办法》之后,以2007年数据为基础,考虑了股票期权的影响,使用非参数Matching方法对股权激励方案的有效性做了进一步的检验,认为激励方案的内生性增强,对公司绩效和风险都有正向的影响。     

哈尔滨市耕地集约利用水平预测及障碍因子诊断

【目的】如何高效利用土地资源、提高耕地集约度是当前科学研究的主要问题,但如何科学预测耕地集约度则一直是研究难点。【方法】基于哈尔滨市耕地集约利用现状,运用熵权、变异系数组合赋权法、BP神经网络、障碍因子诊断法等揭示哈尔滨市耕地集约利用水平发展趋势及耕地集约利用影响因素,为耕地集约利用发展方向及提高耕地集约利用度提供理论依据。【结果】结果表明:(1)1985~2014年哈尔滨市耕地集约利用水平平均值为0.346 2,处于相对集约状态;2015~2024年哈尔滨市耕地集约利用水平呈稳定上升态势,耕地集约利用度均值为0.475,处于高度集约状态;1985~2024年耕地集约利用水平以相对平稳态势发展,且并未出现较大波动,40年间哈尔滨市耕地集约利用平均值达0.409 6,处于较集约状态。(2)从准则层指标障碍度来看,耕地产出效率和投入强度对耕地集约利用水平的影响较大,并且呈现不断上升的趋势,耕地产出效率和投入强度年均增长速率为8.69%、7.82%,耕地利用程度和耕地利用可持续性年均下降速率为4.86%、5.73%,耕地集约利用水平的主要障碍因子是灌溉指数、单位耕地面积农业从业人员、农业产值比、单位播种面积粮食产量等。【结论】运用BP神经网络对哈尔滨市耕地集约利用水平进行科学预测,用障碍因子诊断法诊断耕地集约利用障碍因子,能为研究哈尔滨市耕地集约利用发展趋势提供理论支撑。     

北京山区循环农业发展模式与展望

[目的]北京山区是首都重要的生态屏障区,也是北京重要的水源地、特色农产品生产基地、重要风景旅游区。发展具有山区特色的农业产业,不仅对推进山区城乡统筹协调发展,加快山区农民增收步伐具有重要的实际意义,而且对保证整个首都城市经济的良性发展不容忽视。但随着城市化进程的推动和农业产业结构的变化,不可避免地对首都山区的生态屏障功能带来各方面的影响。合理发展生态友好型循环农业,是协调和解决产业发展与生态屏障之间的关系和矛盾,确保北京山区可持续发展的关键措施之一。[方法]文章采用文献综述与案例分析的方法详细地分析了北京山区生态屏障功能,基于此,以案例的形式概述总结了6种适合的循环农业产业发展模式。[结果]北京山区循环农业发展模式包括能源引导模式、产业融合经营模式、环保型种养殖模式、多层面循环经营模式、综合型废弃物再生利用模式、休闲观光园模式。未来应重点关注的方向包括循环农业的理念应用、组织模式、产业融合、补偿机制、科技支撑、保障研究等几个方面。[结论]北京山区循环农业发展模式可为同类型地区农业产业发展提供经验借鉴和未来研究参考。     

实物期权与公共项目外部效益评价

公共项目的衍生投资机会可视为平台型增值期权。该期权能使社会资产增值,而确定其价值的过程实质是将公共项目的“效益计算”转换为“资产价值计量”过程;这一转化可在一定程度上解决困扰的公共项目外部效益评价问题。     

Firm heterogeneity in growth option value: The role of managerial incentives

Growth option value varies widely across firms. This research explores managerial incentives as a source of firm heterogeneity in growth option value. We argue that when the payoff structure of managerial incentives corresponds to that of growth options, managers will be motivated to pursue actions that increase firms' growth option value, particularly when greater growth opportunities are available in an industry. Results indicate that stock option holdings and managerial stock ownership have a positive effect on growth option value, while short‐term pay has a negative effect. We also find support for a positive interaction effect between equity‐based managerial incentives and industry growth opportunities on growth option value. These findings highlight the critical role of managerial incentives in affecting firms' realization of growth option value. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reading the smile: the message conveyed by methods which infer risk neutral densities

In this study we compare the quality and information content of risk neutral densities obtained by various methods. We consider a non-parametric method based on a mixture of log–normal densities, the semi-parametric ones based on an Hermite approximation or based on an Edgeworth expansion, the parametric approach of Malz which assumes a jump-diffusion for the underlying process, and Heston's approach assuming a stochastic volatility model. We apply those models on FF/DM exchange rate options for two dates. Models differ when important news hits the market (here anticipated elections). The non-parametric model provides a good fit to options prices but is unable to provide as much information about market participants expectations than the jump-diffusion model.     

数字贸易发展的经济效应与推进方略

作为数字化时代的新型贸易模式,数字贸易将对未来的贸易方式、贸易产品、贸易参与者、贸易规则产生深远影响,具有重要的经济学理论价值和现实价值。从微观市场主体、市场效率以及全球贸易发展新动力等角度来看,数字贸易都能衍生出积极的经济效应,有望进一步提高贸易参与者的福利。但也正因为其全新的生产和交换属性,数字贸易的发展面临诸多制约因素,特别是数字贸易国际规则体系还未有效构建,各国数字贸易监管规则和重点也不同。鉴于此,我国需要从国家层面提高数字贸易战略地位,探索形成数字贸易发展新理念,并着力推动在WTO框架下完善数字贸易规则体系,在双边和区域贸易协定中加强数字贸易规则谈判,同时加快完善数字基础设施建设,探索数字贸易背景下新的产品分类体系。     

突破"绿色壁垒"应对新的挑战——日本"肯定列表制度"对我国出口农产品的影响及对策

日本2006年5月29日开始实施“肯定列表制度”。由于我国是日本第二大农产品进口国,根据“肯定列表制度”的原则和特点,它将对我国出口农产品产生一系列重大影响:农产品出口面临歧视性威胁,出口风险加大;农产品生产企业出口成本增加,竞争力削弱;短时间内农产品难以满足“肯定列表制度”的苛刻要求,出口受阻。根据上述分析,我们提出了我国政府部门、行业协会、生产加工企业和农户今后对日出口农产品应采取的对策。     

水利项目投资中实物期权决策

传统方法净现值法(NPV)因自身局限性与水利项目特点,在水利项目投资决策的科学性与准确性受到质疑。本文通过两个实例说明,把实物期权方法引进水利项目决策中,能有效克服传统方法局限性,提高决策的科学性。最后对实物期权新思维在水利项目决策中的价值进行了总结。     

Valuation of an early exercise defined benefit underpin hybrid pension

In this paper, we consider three types of embedded options in pension benefit design. The first is the Florida second election (FSE) option, which has been offered to public employees in the state of Florida since 2002. The state runs both defined contribution (DC) and defined benefit (DB) pension plans. Employees who initially join the DC plan have the option to convert to the (DB) plan at a time of their choosing. The cost of the switch is assessed in terms of the ABO (Accrued Benefit Obligation), which is the expected present value of the accrued DB pension at the time of the switch. If the ABO is greater than the DC account, the employee is required to fund the difference. The second is the DB Underpin option, also known as a ‘floor offset’ or a ‘Greater-of-benefit’ plan, under which the employee participates in a DC plan, but with a guaranteed minimum benefit based on a traditional DB formula. The third option can be considered a variation on each of the first two. We remove the requirement from the FSE option for employees to fund any shortfall at the switching date. The resulting plan is similar to the DB underpin, but with the possibility of early exercise. We adopt an arbitrage-free pricing methodology to value each option. We analyse and value the optimal switching strategy for the employee by constructing an exercise frontier, and we illustrate numerically the difference between the FSE, DB Underpin and Early Exercise DB Underpin options.