Australia's Gone Chicken!

Abstract

The gross value of Australia's agriculture industry in 2001/2002 was A$38.4 billion with 65% allocated to exports. The major exports markets are South East Asia, Japan, USA, and the EU. Products include wool, beef, wheat, cotton, sugar, and wine. For Australia there have been significant changes over time in markets and production arrangements in the international arena. This is also true of the domestic market especially in the area of meat products. Australians, once dominant red meat eaters, have now “gone chicken.” The total yearly consumption of meats averages around 110 kg per person. Beef up until recent years has always been the dominant player. However, in the last 30 years chicken consumption has risen from being a marginal food item to being a product that is expected to eclipse beef consumption in the very near future. This paper explores the trends and examines the changes as they are reflected by the behaviour of consumers and market chain drivers. The paper provides suggestions that could be gainfully employed at the consumer behaviour levels for other meat producers.     

我国肉牛规模化养殖变动趋势及影响因素研究——基基于面板分位数回归的实证分析

目的 探究我国肉牛规模化养殖变动趋势及影响因素,为推动肉牛规模化养殖、提高牛肉生产能力以确保基本供给提供政策依据。方法 文章基于2007—2020年我国16个肉牛主产省面板数据,首先分析肉牛规模化养殖变动趋势及省际差异,然后采用面板分位数回归模型实证检验肉牛规模化养殖影响因素。结果 （1）我国肉牛规模化养殖水平东北地区相对较高,西南地区最低。（2）省域内饲草料生产能力、固定资产能力、机械化水平、城镇化率和工资性收入水平越高、牛肉消费潜力、政策扶持力度和环境规制强度越大,肉牛养殖规模化水平越高。（3）提高牧草生产能力对促进广西、贵州、云南和四川等西南地区的肉牛规模化养殖更为明显,提高饲料生产能力和牛肉市场消费潜力对促进辽宁、吉林和黑龙江等北方地区的肉牛规模化养殖更为明显。（4）小、中规模肉牛养殖受资源禀赋影响更大,中、大规模肉牛养殖受固定资产投入水平和政策扶持影响更大。结论 发展肉牛规模化养殖需充分考虑区域和规模的差异性,从稳固饲草基础保障、完善肉牛扶持政策和环境规制政策、加强人才队伍建设、提高养殖技术水平、优化养殖规模布局等方面着手,推动肉牛规模化养殖快速发展。     

Consumers' Willingness to Pay for Locally Produced Ground Beef: A Case Study of the Rural Northern Great Plains

This study examined consumers’ preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for locally produced ground beef with an emphasis on the impacts of product attributes and the heterogeneity caused by rural consumers’ characteristics. We applied the choice-based conjoint technique to analyze data collected from a typical rural town in the Northern Great Plains. The results indicate that location associated product brand differences and leanness were dominant components affecting consumers’ WTP. The premium of locally produced ground beef for consumers with a close tie to local production is $0.48/lb. Cut difference, grass-fed, and organic were trivial factors in determining consumers’ WTP.     

中国肉牛养殖量对价格变动的反应研究

深入分析中国肉牛销售价格及养殖成本对肉牛养殖数量的影响,对促进肉牛产业稳定发展具有重要意义。结合农产品供给定律和肉牛养殖特点,以2000年~2016年31省份数据为研究样本,构建计量模型进行实证研究。结果表明,肉牛养殖数量受到以下4个因素的显著影响,分别是上3期饲料价格、当期肉牛销售价格、上3期肉牛销售价格和上3期肉牛存栏量。根据研究结果,提出了降低肉牛养殖成本、构建肉牛信息监测平台、鼓励肉牛繁育和养殖技术研发及推广应用、根据实际情况做好母牛养殖补贴工作等对策建议。     

收入分布、户籍地差异与城镇居民牛肉消费基于广义双栏模型的实证研究

[目的]我国社会经济发展已进入追求高质量增长模式的新时代,以牛肉为代表的优质畜产品逐渐成为城镇居民餐桌上的新宠,文章重点研究了中国城镇居民牛肉消费的收入阶层异质性和户籍地差异特征,并模拟分析了收入分布变化对不同户籍类型家庭牛肉消费的影响。[方法]运用广义双栏模型,基于国家统计局的6省区城镇住户微观调查数据,识别了牛肉消费的影响因素并估计了不同收入阶层的牛肉需求的收入弹性,最后基于收入弹性和收入增长率模拟分析收入分布变化的影响效果。[结果]随着我国城镇居民生活水平的提升和畜产品消费结构的升级,未来牛肉需求将会不断扩大;户籍地差异会对居民牛肉消费产生显著影响,户籍制度限制了居民的牛肉消费需求,但收入的增长可弥补部分户籍制度带来的福利差异;缩小收入差距,提升中等收入群体家庭收入的增长模式能够显著增加居民牛肉需求,尤其是提升农民工群体的收入。[结论]未来需要继续通过供给侧改革来应对牛肉需求的激增,扩大中等收入群体并重视农民工群体的发展是全面建成小康社会的关键环节。     

The Country of Origin Effect on Brazilian Beef Trade in Europe: The Moderating Role of Gender,Age, and Product Involvement

Stereotypes of individuals in relation to countries may affect their attitudes toward products from these nations (the country of origin effect). The objective is to analyze the country of origin effect for Brazilian beef in Europe, considering the role of moderators such as gender, age, and product involvement. It was concluded that beliefs in relation to countries and their impact on attitudes toward products from these countries may differ according to demographic issues. We also conclude that aspects related to communication, distribution, and differentiation of Brazilian products have received the worst evaluation by consumers who participated in the survey.     

Rod F. Ziemer**

This paper investigates the effect of disequilibrium prices on consumer and producer surplus in the U.S. fed beef market. An econometric model which allows for the possibility of prices that do not clear the market was used in the analysis. Results indicated that (I) the effect of disequilibrium prices in the U.S. fed beef market in the 1960s was relatively small compared to the 1970s and (2) recent price controls on beef caused price distortions that yielded surplus gains to consumers while producers suffered surplus losses. Cet article a pour but de déterminer ?effet du déséquilibre des prix sur le surplus du consommateur et du producteur dans le marché des bovins ?alimentation, aux Etats- Unis. Dans cette analyse, nous avons utilisé un modele économétrique qui peut s'appliquer aux cas où les prix ne sonl pas à la situation ?équilibre. Les résullats indiquent que: (1) ?effet do déséquilibre des prix dans les années 60 aux Etats- Unit était relativement modeste compareéà?effet enregistré dans les années 70; (2) les récents contrölles de prix imposés sur les bovins ont causé des distortions de prix. lesquelles distortions ont entrainé un accroissement du surplus du consommateur au détriment du surplus du producteur.     

An Incentive Compatible Conjoint Ranking Mechanism

A simple method for making ranking-based conjoint analysis incentive compatible is proposed. The incentive compatible mechanism involves people purchasing a product profile with a probability proportional to its assigned rank. In an empirical application related to consumer preferences for beef attributes, we find that the forecasted market share for a new pasture-raised steak obtained using incentive-compatible rankings was significantly greater than that implied from traditional hypothetical conjoint rankings. People's rankings of ground beef products were not affected by the mechanism or by information about pasture-raised beef.     

Consumer purchase behaviour of irradiated beef products: a simulated supermarket setting

In December 1997, the US Food and Drug Administration approved the use of irradiation to kill harmful bacteria in beef. As a result of limited information about consumers’ potential response to implementation of this technology, a supermarket simulation setting (SSS) test was conducted to assess consumer purchase behaviour. The objectives were to determine consumers’ willingness to purchase irradiated beef products when provided with information at the grocery store level and consumer's perceptions towards irradiated beef. Primary household grocery shoppers (n = 207) in Griffin, Georgia, USA who consumed beef at least twice per week participated in the study. Ground beef, ground chuck, top round steak and rib eye steak were displayed in refrigerated cases in either traditionally labelled packages (non‐irradiated) or in packages labelled as irradiated. Irradiated and non‐irradiated beef had the same unit price. Participants were instructed to purchase two packages of each cut on their first shopping trip; they then shopped a second time after an informative poster about irradiation had been placed in the display cases. The results indicated that irradiation information displayed on the poster at the point of purchase was effective in causing significant change in beef purchase behaviour. The information caused some consumers who had bought traditional packages initially to buy irradiated packages subsequently while others who bought irradiated packages initially subsequently bought traditional packages. Hence, the net effect of the information was minimal. A mean test across form/cut showed that consumers did not differentiate between the ground form and the muscle form in selecting irradiated packages.