The impact of external reference price on consumer price expectations

Comparative pricing practices are frequently used where actual product prices are accompanied by higher external reference prices. All types of stores, regular-price department stores as well as discount stores, use comparative price claims to frame price deals as attractive [Marketing Science 4 (1985) 199]. In this paper, a quadratic model is specified for the impact of external reference price (ERP) on consumer price expectations. Based on the research on communication discrepancy and advertising claim discrepancy, which in turn draw on assimilation-contrast, attribution, and prospect theories, we hypothesize a quadratic effect of external reference prices on consumer price expectations. An interactive, computer-controlled experiment using multiple levels of ERP is used to estimate the proposed model. As hypothesized, support for an inverted U-shape relationship is found between consumers’ updated price expectations and the difference between ERP and initial price expectations. That is, as the difference between ERP and subjects’ initial price expectations increases, subjects’ updated price expectations increase to a point and then start to decrease. We find that the fit of the quadratic model specification for the effect of external reference price on price expectations is noticeably superior to that of linear, logarithmic, square root, and S-shaped specifications. Finally, we provide implications of our results for both retail managers and for regulatory authorities alike.     

用整体观研究劳动价值论体系

本文认为 ,广义劳动价值论的基本观点和分析方法是我国现阶段社会主义社会的理论基础。深化劳动价值论的认识的一个重点是加强对生产价格规律的现实应用的研究 ,坚持和利用这一规律有利于调动一切积极因素来促进我国社会经济发展。“要素价值论”具有资本拜物教性质 ,它是市场经济条件下内容和形式颠倒关系的反映。     

The Demand for Hedging and the Value of Hedging Opportunities

Hedging strategies typically assume that hedging is costless and that only one futures market exists. When these assumptions are dropped, the demand for hedging is shown to depend on basis risk, price risk, and the hedger's risk preference. The marginal and incremental value of hedging opportunities are computed for the general cases of one and two markets and applied to the specific case of Pennsylvania dairy input hedging.     

基于需求角度房地产价格影响因素的实证分析

本文从需求角度分析影响房价的各因素,包括经济发展水平、城镇化水平、城镇居民收入水平和通货膨胀等,并选取一系列房地产价格的影响指标在2001-2010年的十年数据,建立31个省市房价的多种面板数据模型。对不同模型间进行选择和比较,得出最佳模型为个体固定效应模型,力图揭示各选取因素是否能够对房地产价格产生显著影响,从而确定需求层面上房价的影响因素,以及得出相应建议。     

试析基于金融资产价格的货币政策调控

随着以金融为核心的符号经济的不断发展 ,货币政策的传导机制变得日趋复杂 ,由此产生的一个问题是 ,货币政策是否需要把包括金融资产价格在内的广义价格指数作为调控目标。通过分析可知对于一个证券市场波动可能对宏观经济稳定产生重大影响的经济体而言 ,货币政策应该对资产价格变动保持密切关注 ,但不宜作为货币政策的调控目标     

Into the Mussa puzzle: monetary policy regimes and the real exchange rate in a small open economy

Industrial countries moving from fixed to floating exchange rate regimes experience dramatic rises in the variability of the real exchange rate. This evidence, forcefully documented by Mussa [Nominal exchange regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: evidence and implications. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 25 (1986) 117], is a puzzle because it is hard to reconcile with the assumption of flexible prices. This paper lays out a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy that combines nominal price rigidity with a systematic behavior of monetary policy able to approximate a continuum of exchange rate regimes. A version of the model with complete exchange rate pass-through is broadly consistent with Mussa’s findings. Most importantly, this holds independently of the underlying source of fluctuations in the economy, stressing the role of the nominal exchange rate regime per se in affecting the variability of the real exchange rate. However, only a model featuring incomplete exchange rate pass-through can account for a broader range of exchange rate statistics. Finally there exist ranges of values for either the degree of openness or the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods for which the baseline model is also consistent with the empirical insensitivity of output volatility to the type of exchange rate regime, as documented by Baxter and Stockman [Journal of Monetary Economics 23 (1989) 377].     

The effect of real rates of interest on housing prices

During the late 1970s, U.S. house prices were appreciating rapidly even though mortgage interest rates were climbing. Recently, interest rates have eased but prices have moderated. This study examines the role of appreciation expectations in overcoming the negative effects of nominal mortgage interest rates on house prices. Expectations of future appreciation are important determinants of house sales prices, remaining influential during periods of declining and moderating real prices, not just when prices are rising. The real rate of interest, as viewed by the homebuyer, is the mechanism for affecting change in housing price levels. Because the nominal interest rate is slow to reflect changes in expectations, these real rates vary over time. This ebb and flow of real interest rates appears to explain market price levels. Nominal rates play a role as well, primarily in the formation of appreciation expectations.     

日本战争时期土地价格与银行贷款关系的实证分析

关于战争时期土地价格和银行贷款的关系，主要是以这一时期不动产担保抵押贷款作为两者联系的纽带．在20世纪20年代到30年代期间，日本不动产金融问题越加明显，土地价格下跌对银行贷款产生重要影响．分析显示土地价格变化方向和普通银行及储蓄银行贷款增减变化方向几乎相同．41个道府县的普通银行、储蓄银行贷款增长率与农耕土地价格增长率具有较强的相关性．表明由于战争时期土地价格的下跌，抑制了银行贷款．这一时期，随着借款者拥有的不动产之担保价值下降，使银行资产遭受损失，导致银行防范风险能力下降．