约束国债借款的理论机制分析——基于当前借款约束模型的研究趋势追踪

国债规模过大是一直困扰各国政府的财政难题。是否存在国债借款约束的理论机制,用以指导债务规模,化解债务风险?研究发现,国债借款约束至少包含三个关键方面:财政收支不平衡可以有效测量、债权方的预期有必要予以考虑、国债规模必须收敛。微观预期和财富状况是国债借款的基础,而债务收敛和相关经济变量作用是债务规模变化的主要诱因。结论认为,以当前借款约束模型为基础的国债借款约束机制是衡量国债规模可持续性的有力工具。     

经济发达地区农户借贷需求特征及影响因素研究——基于浙江温岭市的调查

对浙江温岭市379户农户借贷需求状况的调查结果显示:农户户均借款数额较大,且增长迅速;借贷资金主要来源于农村合作银行,但民间借贷也是一个补充途径;约75%的借贷资金用于非农产业;以一年内的短期借款为主;农户之间的民间借贷以低息、借条形式为主,规范性较好。进一步地,应用Logistic回归模型对农户借贷需求的影响因素进行定量分析,结果表明,农户的总收入、非农收入、借贷倾向、借贷次数、储蓄存款、从事行业和地理区域是对借贷需求具有显著影响的因素。     

我国西部地区农户借贷行为影响因素的实证研究——基于804户农户调查数据分析

诠释农户的性质、行为及其生存环境是讨论我国农村金融问题的逻辑起点,本文运用二元选择模型,利用农户调查问卷得到的数据对西部地区农户借贷行为的影响因素进行了实证研究。得出以下结论:个人与家庭特征、经济特征、环境特征均是影响西部地区农户借贷行为的因素,尤其是农户的家庭年收入、农户的家庭规模、家庭主要支出、户主年龄、家庭劳动负担率、2008年是否发生重大事件等因素对农户借贷行为的影响具有非常显著的作用。     

Corporate bankruptcies and official bail-outs: A cost–benefit analysis

The existence of government guarantees to bail out investors and the use of official support to prevent corporate bankruptcies are commonly viewed to have largely contributed to the financial fragilities of many emerging market economies during the 1990s. This paper attempts to rationalize the existence and the duration of such policies. By using a simple model of the economy, we formalize governments’ decision on how long to provide resources to bridge the gap between the corporate sector's earnings and obligations. By considering both the costs and benefits of bail-outs in an environment where there are unfavorable productivity shocks, we show that the bail-out policy ends sooner; the higher the initial level of foreign borrowing, the lower the productivity, the lower the rate of time preference, and the higher the world interest rate. We also show that given any set of fundamentals, an unfavorable shift in market sentiments may end such policies sooner than otherwise.     

安达市农户民间借贷问题及对策研究

以农户调查数据为基础,在了解安达市农户民间借贷的现状基础上,从农户需求的角度了解安达市农村民间借贷存在的问题,并分析其形成原因,最后提出解决安达市农户民间借贷问题的对策建议。     

Fails‐to‐Deliver before and after the Implementation of Rule 203 and Rule 204

We study the determinants of fails‐to‐deliver in the period before and after the implementation of Rule 203 (elimination of option market maker exception from the locate and close‐out requirement) and Rule 204 (t+3 close‐out rule) in September 2008. We find a positive relation between short selling and fails‐to‐deliver that weakens after the implementation of these rules. Fails‐to‐deliver are higher for stocks with low institutional ownership, low book‐to‐market, small market capitalization, high turnover, and put option availability. The relation between short selling and these measures of borrowing costs is also weaker after the implementation of these rules.     

HOW SHOULD BRITAIN'S GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND TAX BURDENS BE MEASURED? A HISTORIC PERSPECTIVE ON THE 2009 BUDGET FORECASTS

The 2009 Budget projections imply that the ratio of general government expenditure to national income will rise to 53.4% in 2010, the highest ratio since World War II and 6.9% above the peak recorded in World War I. Public sector net borrowing is projected to increase from 8% of national income in 2008–09, to 14.1% in 2009–10, and 13.5% in 2011–12. There must be serious doubt whether deficits on this scale can be financed in a non‐inflationary manner, without very large capital inflows from abroad. It is hard to see why such inflows should be forthcoming now that the British economy has become so highly taxed by international standards.     

有限责任效应下的公司负债刚性

本文提出并论证了在公司负债的有限责任效应下,财务经理具有只愿意增加负债资本而不愿只增加权益资本的动机,导致实践中公司确定的最优负债水平一般高于传统模型下的负债水平且公司负债融资具有刚性倾向的结论,从另一个角度解释了资本结构理论的相对于权益融资为什么财务经理更偏好干负债筹资的现象。     

Financial literacy and the cost of borrowing

This research investigates the relation between financial literacy and the cost of borrowing via credit cards and mortgage loans among US consumers. This is a departure from previous studies that have focused on levels of debt in relation to human capital, either financial knowledge or education. Data from the Consumer Finance Monthly (CFM) survey are used to specifically examine the effect of financial literacy on borrowing rates for credit cards and mortgages controlling for other human capital influences. The CFM is a national survey, rich in American consumer credit information, and includes a comprehensive instrument specifically designed to measure financial literacy. Results indicate that those who are financially literate are about twice as likely to have lower costs of borrowing for both credit cards and mortgage loans.     

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN QUANTITATIVE MODELS OF SOVEREIGN DEFAULT

The current crisis and discussions, in the euro area in particular, show that sovereign debt crises/defaults are no longer confined to developing economies. Following crises in many Latin American countries, the literature on quantitative dynamic macro models of sovereign default has been advancing rapidly. Current debate should take note of the findings of this literature – an extensive overview of which has been provided in this paper. This paper also discusses the inherent difficulties as well as possibilities of integrating this type of model into standard business cycle models (RBC and DSGE models). This is likely to be particularly helpful when using models to analyse upcoming issues in the euro area, such as a suitable sovereign insolvency law or the assumption of joint liability.