Far from the madding crowd: collective wisdom in prediction markets

We investigate market selection and bet pricing in a repeated prediction market model. We derive the conditions for long-run survival of more than one agent (the crowd) and quantify the information content of prevailing prices in the case of fractional Kelly traders with heterogeneous beliefs. It turns out that, apart some non-generic situations, prices do not converge, neither almost surely nor on average, to true probabilities, nor are they always nearer to the truth than the beliefs of all surviving agents. This implies that, in general, prediction market prices are not maximum likelihood estimators of the true probabilities. However, when more than one agent survives, the average price emerging from a prediction market approximates the true probability with lower information loss than any individual belief.     

John R. Commons and Government as Employer of Last Resort: Three Paths to a Progressive Right to Work

Abstract:

Today in the United States, a number of congressional Democrats endorse proposals that would establish a job guarantee for all Americans seeking work. Arguments for such a policy can be traced back at least to the work of John R. Commons, one of the first institutional economists. This article demonstrates that there are actually three arguments in Commons’s scholarship that provide a case for government to hire the unemployed by serving as employer of last resort. These arguments, each highlighted at a different point in Commons’s career, can be viewed in turn as legal, financial, and historical paths to public provision of work for the jobless—government employment that Commons considered part of “the right to work.” The article traces each path, highlighting insight that remains relevant and calling for greater attention to Common’s writings as a way to reclaim the right to work as a progressive cause.     

Forecasting artificial intelligence on online customer assistance: Evidence from chatbot patents analysis

The main goal of this research is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the actual progresses in artificial intelligence, with emphasis on chatbots as emerging forms of customer assistance in online retailing. Drawing upon an analysis of the chatbot patents in the past 20 years, our findings show the increasing technology push towards the adoption of new conversational agents based on natural language. Findings also highlight the extent to which the research and development efforts are attempting to improve artificial intelligence systems that characterize chatbots. To this end, technology advancements are mainly focusing on: (i) improving chatbot ability to automatically draw inferences on users starting from multiple data sources, and (ii) using consumers’ knowledge adaptively to provide more customized solutions. Finally, results show the tight relationship between the digital assistants’ analytical skills and their ability to automatically interact with the users.     

Business Cycles Around the Globe: Some Key Facts

We document massive heterogeneity in basic cyclical patterns within groups of developed and emerging market economies. While we detect marked differences between developed and emerging countries as well, the distributions of key business cycle statistics tend to overlap across different country groups.     

The ties that bind: Bank relationships and small business lending

The importance of bank relationships for small firms’ ability to raise external finance is well-documented, yet the mechanism through which relationships improve access to capital markets has received little empirical attention. This paper uses hand-collected, proprietary data from a mid-sized bank in the United States to identify the channels that strengthen the relationship between a small business and its bank. In contrast to earlier work that focuses on the role of relationships in alleviating information and incentive problems in lending, I find that the source of value in relationship banking is not limited to enhanced monitoring. Exploiting a unique feature of this dataset, I examine two channels of relationship strength that directly measure the stream of non-lending profits generated from (1) the non-credit services cross-sold to the borrower, and (2) the additional bank clients referred by the borrower. I document that non-lending profitability empirically determines the risk-adjusted terms of lending. In models of loan price that already include both the bank’s proprietary risk rating and traditional risk proxies, non-lending profits significantly improve explanatory power and account for up to half of the total explained variation. Conditional on risk profile, a one-standard deviation increase in aggregate non-lending profits lowers the loan interest rate by 32 basis points and increases access to credit by 26%.     

人力资本、营商环境优化与外资企业创新——兼论引智的重要性

在营商环境优化成为培育引资及引技竞争新优势的背景下，考察发展中国家的营商环境优化对外资企业创新意愿的影响以及外资企业人力资本的调节效应。研究表明：营商环境优化降低了外资企业进行技术创新、流程创新和产品创新的意愿，且平均边际效应依次增强；内在机制是营商环境优化带来的外资企业特惠度降低和内资企业竞争力增强；外资企业的人力资本增强了营商环境优化对其创新意愿的降低作用，且是通过增强外资企业特惠度、降低抑制其创新意愿以及营商环境优化促进内资企业竞争力的方式实现的。进一步发现，外资企业的引智具有显著的创新溢出效应，且内资企业的吸收能力存在积极的调节效应。     

Shifts in consumer behavior towards organic products: Theory-driven data analytics

Consumer behavior is key in shifts towards organic products. A diversity of factors influences consumer preferences, driving planned, impulsive, and unplanned purchasing decisions. We study choices among organic and conventional wine using an extensive survey among Australian consumers (N = 1003). We integrate five behavioral theories in the survey design, and use supervised and unsupervised machine learning algorithms for analysis. We quantify a gap between intention and behavior, and emphasize the importance of cognitive factors. Findings go beyond correlation to the causation of behavior when combining predictive prowess with explanatory power. Results reveal that affective factors and normative cues may prompt unplanned and spontaneous purchasing behavior, causing consumers to act against their beliefs.     

关键核心技术攻关新型举国体制研究

面对新一轮科技革命,传统创新组织和模式已难以适应新形势的要求,美国科技界认为会聚创新模式将成为推动科技发展的重大战略举措。本文深入分析会聚创新兴起的内在机理,以人工智能领域为切入点,广泛借鉴国际创新组织不同模式经验,提出构建社会主义市场经济条件下关键核心技术攻关新型举国体制的若干建议。     

A systematic review of AI technology-based service encounters: Implications for hospitality and tourism operations

The hospitality and tourism industry faces serious challenges during public health emergencies such as COVID-19. Managers are concerned not only about how to maintain business and provide humanized services but also about social distancing. This study presented artificial intelligence (AI) technology-based service encounters as a possible solution and examined the antecedents and consequences of the encounter triad including customers, employees, and AI. Based on a systematic literature review, the study identified 4 modes of AI technology-based service encounters: AI-supplemented, AI-generated, AI-mediated, and AI-facilitated encounters. In addition, the study developed an integrated model to specify the factors that influence AI technology-infused service encounters in general and the customer service outcomes that result from the encounters. The findings contribute to service management and AI application theoretically and practically.     

Net-zero emission targets and the role of managerial environmental awareness,customer pressure,and regulatory control toward environmental performance

To avoid the worst effects of global warming, countries agreed to limit warming below 2.0°C and ideally to 1.5°C preindustrial level. This requires countries to drop half of their greenhouse gas emission by 2030 and reach net-zero emission by 2050. In this regard, current study explores the role of green production as a mediator in the impact of managerial environmental awareness, customer pressure, and regulatory control on environmental performance. The data collected from 381 managers was analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) technique. Results indicate that customer pressure, regulatory control, and managerial environmental awareness play a pivotal role toward green production, whereas only managerial environmental awareness among them directly influences environmental performance. Green production fully mediates the relationship from customer pressure and regulatory control to environmental performance. However, it partially mediates the relation between managerial environmental awareness and environmental performance. Similarly, the importance of green production for environmental performance is highlighted.