林业的历史性转变与碳交换机制的建立

地球大气CO2含量上升是导致地球水、气、热循环失常以及生物多样性减少的主要原因。全球对林业的主要生态需求是发挥森林减少大气CO2含量的功能。现在人们公认的许多林业理念是偏颇的,需要纠正。地球生态危机说明CO2排放空间是稀缺资源,发展的结果必然导致在全球分配CO2排放权,从而产生CO2排放权交易、碳汇产权化、生态服务有形化、有偿化。     

Returns to scale and externalities in the consumption and investment sectors

Using data on US manufacturing, I estimate internal returns to scale and external effects for the consumption and investment sectors. I construct panels of data at the industry level and use results of gross output production function estimation to derive implied estimates in a value added specification. For the investment sector, returns to scale appear to be slightly increasing, with evidence of a positive external effect. For consumption, the evidence indicates decreasing to constant returns to scale. I discuss the implications of these results for the empirical plausibility of indeterminacy in recent multi-sector models of the business cycle.     

Mean Reversion in the Short Horizon Returns of UK Portfolios

This paper will show that short horizon stock returns for UK portfolios are more predictable than suggested by sample autocorrelation co-efficients. Four capitalisation based portfolios are constructed for the period 1976–1991. It is shown that the first order autocorrelation coefficient of monthly returns can explain no more than 10% of the variation in monthly portfolio returns. Monthly autocorrelation coefficients assume that each weekly return of the previous month contains the same amount of information. However, this will not be the case if short horizon returns contain predictable components which dissipate rapidly. In this case, the return of the most recent week would say a lot more about the future monthly portfolio return than other weeks. This suggests that when predicting future monthly portfolio returns more weight should be given to the most recent weeks of the previous month, because, the most recent weekly returns provide the most information about the subsequent months' performance. We construct a model which exploits the mean reverting characteristics of monthly portfolio returns. Using this model we forecast future monthly portfolio returns. When compared to forecasts that utilise the autocorrelation statistic the model which exploits the mean reverting characteristics of monthlyportfolio returns can forecast future returns better than the autocorrelation statistic, both in and out of sample.     

Bargaining, binding contracts, and competitive wages

In a model where many workers bargain with one firm and sign binding contracts, we show existence of a stationary subgame perfect equilibrium. If the production function satisfies decreasing returns, each worker receives a share of his marginal product (treating all other workers as employed) in equilibrium. Thus, wages are competitive. This is in contrast to Stole and Zweibel (1996, Rev. Econ. Stud. 63, 375–410), who assume that contracts are non-binding and find that the payoff of a worker is a weighted average of the inframarginal contributions. Hence, binding contracts imply lower wages than non-binding contracts.     

The impact of news,oil prices,and global market developments on Russian financial markets1

This paper analyses the impact of news, oil prices, and international financial market developments on daily returns on Russian bond and stock markets. First, regarding returns, energy news affects returns, while news from the war in Chechnya is not significant. Market volatility does not appear to be sensitive to either type of news. Second, a significant effect of the growth in oil prices on Russian stock returns is detected. Third, the international influence on Russian financial markets depends upon the degree of financial liberalization. The higher the degree of financial liberalization, the stronger is the impact of US stock returns on Russian financial markets. In addition, banking reform and interest rate liberalization efforts seem to dictate the globalization of Russian stock markets, while it is the progress in liberalizing securities markets and non‐bank financial institutions that matters more for the globalization of Russian bond markets.     

Information flows within and across sectors in Chinese stock markets

We examine the patterns of information flows within and across sectors of the two Chinese stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen during 1994–2001. Using the generalized forecast error variance decomposition, we find a high degree of interdependence, indicating that the sectors are highly integrated and sector prices reflect information from other sectors. Industry is the most influential sector in both exchanges, while Finance in Shenzhen is the least integrated with other sectors. Implications of the findings for investors and policymakers are also discussed.     

浅析水利水电工程的合同管理

合同管理是我国水利水电建设工程项目管理的薄弱环节，也是我国水利水电施工承包企业的管理弱点。加强合同管理是市场经济的需要，也是国际一体化的要求。施工过程中，承包商面对干扰事件，详细分析索赔理由，及时编制索赔报告，才有机会获得显著的工程效益。     

The Relation Between Investor Uncertainty and Market Reactions to Earnings Announcements: Evidence from the Property‐Casualty Insurance Industry in the USA

Abstract:   This paper investigates the relationship between investor uncertainty, gauged by properties of analysts' forecasts, and the stock market response to earnings. We find that uncertainty is best characterized by a comprehensive measure recently proposed by Barron, Kim, Lim and Stevens (1998) , BKLS. The BKLS measure is related to uncertainty‐inducing events, as well as factors that affect the difficulty faced by analysts in forecasting earnings. We conclude that, first, pre‐disclosure uncertainty is a significant determinant of the price reaction to the earnings release, and second, BKLS is a more comprehensive measure of uncertainty than simple dispersion.     

Empirical Analysis of the Market Effects of China＇s Listed—— Company＇s Dividend Policy ——Empirical Evidences from Shanghai Stock Exchange from 2004 to 2005

Dividend policy is one of the three core contents of financial management in listed companies. On one hand, it is the extension of financial and investment activities; on the other hand, appropriate dividend policy can not only set up a good company reputation, but also arouse enthusiasm of many investors to continue invest in this company, consequently acquire long and stable development opportunities and conditions. In this paper, the author has put forward some suggestions in order to solve the problems which existing in Chinese listed companies＇ dividend policies based on the result of positive test. Firstly, optimize the structure of equity title and perfect the corporate governance. Secondly, to establish wholesome shareholder protection mechanism, and also it is important measure for investors, especially medium and small investors to protect their rights and interests. According to the present situation of Chinese stock market, the authors consider we can protect the shareholder＇s benefits by carrying out cumulative vote system, establishing hortative derive lawsuit system, perfecting civil compensation system and establishing shareholder voting removing system and so on. Thirdly, the establishment of listed companies＇ dividend policy and the release of message should be standardized for the sake of good relationship of melon-cutting and corporation＇s refinancing plan. Finally, listed companies＇ dividend policy can be optimized by modifying and perfecting stock dividend distribution mode of accounting management, perfecting exit mechanism of listed companies.     

The Free Cash Flow Anomaly Revisited: Finnish Evidence

Abstract:  This paper examines the performance of an investment strategy based on free cash flows using financial statement data of Finnish companies during the period 1992-2002. The analysis in this paper is motivated by the so-called free cash flow anomaly previously documented e.g. in Hackel, Livnat and Rai (2000) . Using annual financial statement information, we identify large-capitalization companies with positive free cash flows, low free cash flow multiples, and low financial leverage. Since a portfolio of these companies is found to consistently outperform the market index, our results suggest that the free cash flow anomaly also exists in the Finnish stock market.