Using diffusion models to forecast market size in emerging markets with applications to the Chinese car market

Marketing managers have to forecast the market size and this forecast guides strategic decisions whether to continue exporting, open new factories or expand existing production operations. Forecasting sales and the market size is a challenging task; even more so in emerging markets where data is limited and the market demand is changeable. This research proposes a novel approach that applies diffusion models using car ownership data to forecast car sales. Car ownership data may be easier to access than sales data in emerging markets but marketing managers are more interested in the sales forecast. Researchers propose using diffusion models to forecast the adoption of new products or products which are new to consumers in a market. This research demonstrates that marketing managers can use diffusion models to predict car sales in China where cars are new products to most consumers in this market. Since the majority of car buyers in China are first time buyers, car manufacturers and retailers must also forecast when the market composition will change. This effectively means predicting when first time car buying will start to slow down and repeat/replacement purchase or second hand car purchase will become more important. To forecast both sales and market composition change, marketing managers must choose a robust model. Managers want insights from models that have been tested robustly especially in less stable market conditions. In this context, this study illustrates the value of using a rolling forecast instead of a fixed horizon approach when comparing and choosing which model to use to forecast both sales and market composition change for the Chinese car market.     

桥梁伸缩缝处跳车原因和防治措施分析

根据桥梁伸缩缝处跳车的表现形式,文章分析了跳车的原因,并提出了防治桥梁伸缩缝处跳车的基本措施,供大家参考。     

Keeping our children safe in motor vehicles: knowledge,attitudes and practice among parents in Kuwait regarding child car safety

Child safety restraints can reduce risk of death and decrease injury severity from road traffic crashes; however, knowledge about restraints and their use in Kuwait is limited. A cross-sectional, self-administered survey about child car safety was used among a convenience sample of parents of children aged 18 years or younger at five Kuwaiti university campuses. Of 552 respondents, over 44% have seated a child in the front seat and 41.5% have seated a child in their lap while driving. Few parents are aware of and fewer report using the appropriate child restraint; e.g., 36% of parents of infants recognised an infant seat and 26% reported using one. Over 70% reported wearing seat belts either “all of the time” (33%) or “most of the time” (41%). This new information about parents' knowledge and practice regarding child car seat use in Kuwait can inform interventions to prevent child occupant injury and death.     

粮油机械设备调拨车改造试验

近年来随着托市库点的增加,粮油机械设备的转移运输日益频繁,运费高、运输安全性差、机动灵活性差等问题日渐突出。为了弥补以上缺陷,中央储备粮临沂直属库设计制作了粮油机械设备调拨车,取得了较好的使用效果。     

我国轿车企业的自主创新能力建设

本文阐述了自主创新的内涵和特点,在分析我国轿车企业自主创新能力建设的现状与问题的基础上,提出了培养轿车企业自主创新能力的六大措施。     

基于证据推理的家用轿车综合评价研究

针对消费者在挑选家用轿车时遇到的"不确定"和"不知道"信息,研究了基于证据推理(ER)的家用轿车综合评价体系。建立递归证据推理的算法及相应的推理合成步骤,通过分析消费者选车时的考虑因素,建立家用轿车指标体系。最后,通过案例分析,说明该方法的有效性和实用性。     

货运汽车火灾的成因分析与预防对策研究

对货运汽车的形成原因进行了多方面分析，并提出了相应预防对策。     

浅析中国轿车工业的核心能力培育途径

本文在创新理论和核心能力理论的各个要素分析的基础上,结合中国轿车工业的现状和问题,就中国轿车工业核心能力培育框架构想、培育中国轿车工业核心能力的战略步骤等问题提出了自己的设想。     

一款基于凌阳61单片机的汽车弯道会车雷达设计

介绍了一款3cm微波汽车弯道会车雷达的设计方案。该雷达以凌阳61单片机为核心，充分利用凌阳61单片机的DSP处理功能和语音处理功能。该装置安装在行驶的汽车上，使行驶的汽车在弯道处能自动探测出前方行驶车辆，有效避免汽车出现会车险情。该装置结构简单，灵敏度高，适用于行驶在山区公路的各种汽车。     

The 1979 US gasoline shortage and its impact on the tourism industry

Owners or managers of 373 businesses on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, were interviewed in summer 1981 to determine whether they were affected by the 1979 gasoline shortage. The results indicate that half the respondents were affected, the majority of whom were adversely affected. More tourism businesses reported being affected than non-tourism businesses. The effects manifested themselves in staff layoffs and unfilled vacancies. Nevertheless, tourism businesses on the Cape did not alter any of their marketing strategies, excluding the lowering of prices.