基于LVQ神经网络的电信企业客户流失预测模型研究

随着人工智能的快速发展,人工神经网络被广泛地运用到分类预测领域。文章首先明确了客户流失的定义及其分类,然后分析了LVQ神经网络的基本原理,最后从研究样本的确定、预测变量的选取、模型的训练及评估三个方面构建了基于LVQ神经网络的电信企业客户流失预测模型,以期为电信企业客户流失预测模型的设计提供一定的借鉴意义。     

后危机时代我国企业雇主品牌建设的建模研究

目前,国内外对雇主品牌建设进行定量分析的研究不多,基于此,本研究以主动、科学的意识,量化定性的因素,探讨企业的雇主品牌建设。文章通过指标确定与模型构建,为企业雇主品牌建设提供理论指导,也为企业人力资源管理、品牌管理、市场营销等企业活动提供决策依据。     

薄壁高墩翻模施工技术应用

本文详细介绍了深坑中高墩翻模施工工艺,可供类似工程参考。     

“金字塔”结构、两权分离与公司价值

企业的集团化伴随着"金字塔"式的多层控股结构的产生,"金子塔"股权结构带来了控股股东控制权与现金流权的分离,进而对公司价值产生影响。文章运用我国上市公司数据,检验了"金字塔"股权结构、两权分离对公司价值的影响状况与影响机制。研究结论对于加强上市公司监管、完善公司治理、保护中小投资者利益具有重要启示。     

创新铁路运输业竞争理论模型研究

通过对竞争理论的研究,提出了铁路运输竞争的概念及分类,建立了铁路运输内部竞争和外部竞争模型;特别是通过对现行中国铁路运输区域管理(铁路局管理)模式的实证分析研究,建立了铁路现有区域管理模式下的竞争模型,在此基础上提出了市场经济条件下、实现充分竞争的新型铁路公司竞争模型,即通过改革后使任一客户(旅客或货主)在同一地区可以选择不同铁路运输公司为其服务,建立起铁路运输企业间的内部充分竞争机制,对铁路运输改革、打破运输垄断、引入竞争机制具有一定的理论意义和重要的现实参考价值。     

网格计算环境下企业的ASP-CRM模式研究

客户关系管理（Customer Relationship Management-CRM）已成为企业获得竞争优势的重要手段。但传统的客户关系管理系统投资大、周期长、投资风险高,企业、尤其是中小企业难以承受。应用服务供应商（ApplicationServiceProvider-ASP）模式通过建立公共的IT服务平台,以租赁的方式为用户提供软件平台的服务,能够有效免除企业的资金和技术困扰。但是AsP模式存在的不足与缺陷却制约着它的发展。网格计算技术能充分利用网络中的各种资源,实现强大的数据处理功能。在研究现有企业ASP运作模式和商业模式的基础上,给出网格计算环境下的企业ASP模式,并构建了新模式的运营模型。将cRM、ASP和网格计算结合起来,提出网格计算环境下企业AsP_cRM模式的体系结构和服务模型,并分析了该模式的特点。     

Making unilateral trade liberalisation beneficial to the poor

In this paper, we investigate the impacts of unilateral import liberalisation by a representative South Asian developing economy, Nepal, and demonstrate those conditions required to make the impacts ‘pro-poor.’ Applying the Computable General Equilibrium model to Social Accounting Matrix data, we conclude that import liberalisation is growth-enhancing but that, unfortunately, the rich benefit more than do the poor. We envisage a restructured but plausible model economy that requires a transformational period of ten years, and simulate unilateral trade liberalisation but, in the context of a dynamic model. We conclude that improvement in efficiency parameters, reorganisation of investment patterns, along with reallocation of factors of production by both household group and activity type are required to make growth accrued by import liberalisation ‘pro-poor’ in developing economies such as that of Nepal.     

Efficiency comparisons between two estimators based on matrix determinant Kantorovich-type inequalities

We first establish two matrix determinant Kantorovich-type inequalities. Then, based on these two and other inequalities, we introduce new efficiency criteria and present their upper bounds to make efficiency comparisons between the ordinary least squares estimator and the best linear unbiased estimator in the general linear model. We provide numerical examples to examine the upper bounds of some new and old efficiency criteria. Received: June 1999     

Econometric Analysis of Managers' Judgements on the Determinants of the Financial Situation in Russia

The paper presents an econometric analysis of the determinants of the financial situation in Russian manufacturing. Official statistics in Russia are not reliable. This is why the analysis is based on business opinion surveys carried out within `The Russian Economic Barometer' long-term research programme for monitoring and investigation of the transition to the market in Russia. The new adaptive approach elaborated by the author of the paper is used to form a correct set of explanatory variables in regression equations. This approach is based on the comparison of the forecast abilities of alternative models with different sets of explanatory variables. Two periods are considered and compared: January 1993 to January 1995 and February 1995 to January 1998. Two variables, the diffusion index of output and the average order-book level, provide the best explanation of the managers' judgement regarding the financial situation in Russia for the first period. It was found that for the second period, the influence of the `output index' diminished. The main factors with which managers related a `good' financial situation in their enterprises were the sample average of order-book level, the stocks of finished goods, the index of order-book level, the index of output prices ratio, and the indebtedness to banks. All relationships are presented in the context of linear probability and logit models.     

Heavy tails versus long-range dependence in self-similar network traffic

Empirical studies of the traffic in computer networks suggest that network traffic exhibits self-similarity and long-range dependence. The ON/OFF model considered in this paper gives a simple 'physical explanation' for these observed phenomena. The superposition of a large number of ON/OFF sources, such as workstations in a computer lab, with strictly alternating and heavy-tailed ON- and OFF-periods, can produce a cumulative workload which converges, in a certain sense, to fractional Brownian motion. Fractional Brownian motion exhibits both self-similarity and long-range dependence. However, there are two sequential limits involved in this limiting procedure, and if they are reversed, the limiting process is stable Levy motion, which is self-similar but exhibits no long-range dependence. We study simulations limit regimes and provide conditions under which either fractional Brownian motion or stable Levy motion appears as limiting process.