How well do classical credit risk pricing models fit swap transaction data?

Currency and interest rate swaps are subject to a complex, two-sided default risk. Several theoretical papers have recently addressed the problem of pricing this swap credit risk. We implement a recent credit risk pricing model in an attempt to evaluate one of the main lines of research in theoretical credit risk analysis. We compare the model's analytical results to actual transaction data thanks to a unique academic database on swap transaction data.     

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS – WEAPON OF MASS DESTRUCTION OR RELIABLE INDICATOR?

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) are said to increase systemic vulnerability, but they also serve as an ex‐ante indicator of default probabilities, more finely‐tuned and more responsive than ratings agency reports. And they provide a useful mechanism for trading risk and an incentive for good management by businesses and governments.     

我国巨灾风险管理模式的设计及其运作

商业化、事前补偿的巨灾保险是巨灾风险管理发展的趋势。我国应该逐步构建以政府为主导,涵盖政府、保险公司、再保险公司、资本市场和潜在受灾者五个主体的巨灾风险管理模式。在实际运作中,要考虑巨灾保险承保、保险公司巨灾风险转移和区分潜在客户等。     

地质灾害预测预报的国内外现状

我国是世界上地质灾害特别严重的国家之一。文章对我国地质灾害预测预报现状进行了综述,力求为地质灾害的预测预报提供服务。     

崩塌、滑坡地质灾害监测现状

文章对目前国内外崩塌、滑坡地质灾害监测方法、仪器及监测目的、选择手段进行了综述,力求了解和掌握崩滑体的演变过程,及时捕捉崩滑灾害的特征信息,正确分析评价崩塌、滑坡,以尽量避免和减轻灾害损失。     

Property Derivatives for Managing European Real-Estate Risk

Although property markets represent a large proportion of total wealth in developed countries, the real-estate derivatives markets are still lagging behind in volume of trading and liquidity. Over the last few years there has been increased activity in developing derivative instruments that can be utilised by asset managers. In this paper, we discuss the problems encountered when using property derivatives for managing European real-estate risk. We also consider a special class of structured interest rate swaps that have embedded real-estate risk and propose a more efficient way to tailor these swaps .     

巨灾保险证券化研究

我国是一个自然灾害频发的国家,巨灾保险对于经济主体的风险防范发挥了重大的作用。在金融证券化和保险金融化的趋势下,巨灾保险风险证券化的出现成为保险业界实施巨灾风险保险融资或转移巨灾风险提供了常规的方法。     

Large EU banks’ capital and liquidity: Relationship and impact on credit default swap spreads

This paper explores the interrelations between bank capital and liquidity and their impact on the market probability of default. We employ an unbalanced panel of large European banks with listed credit default swap (CDS) contracts during the period 2005–2015, which allow us to consider the impact of the recent financial crisis. Our evidence suggests that bank capital and funding liquidity risk as defined in Basel III have an economically meaningful bidirectional relationship. However, the effect on CDS spread is ambiguous. While capital appears to have a relatively large impact on CDS spread changes, liquidity risk is priced only when it falls below the regulatory threshold.     

Environmental market creation: saviour or oversell?

In recent years considerable attention has been paid to the notion of market creation for the conservation of environmental assets. Market creation establishes a market in the external benefit or cost in question (e.g. biodiversity or pollution reduction) and leaves the relevant parties to adjust their behaviour accordingly. While most attention has been paid to market creation through tradable permits and taxes (the polluter-pays), it is less easy to secure a perspective on beneficiary-pays initiatives. Both polluter-pays and beneficiary-pays initiatives are examples of modified Coaseian bargains in which governments intervene in the bargains to lower transactions costs, establish property rights, deal with public goods issues, or act on behalf of disadvantaged groups. This paper reviews four major initiatives in this respect - debt-for-nature swaps, bioprospecting and the Global Environment Facility at the global level, and the Costa Rican Forest Law at the local level. It finds that while there is much to applaud in initiatives in these new markets, serious questions remain about the modest flows of funds associated with such global bargains, and the extent to which they secure environmental improvements relative to the baseline of business-as-usual.JEL Classification: D49, D62, H41, O19, Q57, Q2I am indebted to members of the Wildlife Conservation Research Unit at Oxford University and to David Simpson of Resources for the Future and University College London for valuable comments on an earlier version of this paper. Any remaining mistakes are entirely my responsibility.