国外巨灾保险制度及其对我国的启示

当前,我国的巨灾保险制度建设正受到空前的关注。本文从域外视角先后考察了关国、英国、法国等国外巨灾保险制度的相关概况,并在此基础上,总结出各国巨灾保险制度共通性的经验：巨灾保险运作模式大体有三种;巨灾保险多有相应立法予以肯认;巨灾保险风险转移机制非单一化。进而从中得出对我国的启示,即我国巨灾保险制度的构建首先需要法律支持,应当因地制宜地借鉴国外巨灾保险法律制度。     

小概率高损失事件的忽略——对中国发展巨灾保险的意义

地震、洪水和台风等都属于小概率高损失的巨灾风险,一旦发生将给社会和人们的生活带来破坏性的后果。研究表明,巨灾事件的发生会极大地改变公众对风险或损失的预期和感知。在巨灾事件发生时以及一段时间内,由于风险信息的显著性和可获得性,公众会产生暂时的紧张和恐惧心理,随着时间的流逝,人们会慢慢从非理性中冷静下来,意识到巨灾风险发生的概率是如此之小,过度的担心是没有必要的。这对于巨灾风险制度的发展产生了重要的影响,因此,分析和研究公众对巨灾风险的感知、提出相应的巨灾保险发展的对策建议具有重要的理论和实践意义。     

Large EU banks’ capital and liquidity: Relationship and impact on credit default swap spreads

This paper explores the interrelations between bank capital and liquidity and their impact on the market probability of default. We employ an unbalanced panel of large European banks with listed credit default swap (CDS) contracts during the period 2005–2015, which allow us to consider the impact of the recent financial crisis. Our evidence suggests that bank capital and funding liquidity risk as defined in Basel III have an economically meaningful bidirectional relationship. However, the effect on CDS spread is ambiguous. While capital appears to have a relatively large impact on CDS spread changes, liquidity risk is priced only when it falls below the regulatory threshold.     

Environmental market creation: saviour or oversell?

In recent years considerable attention has been paid to the notion of market creation for the conservation of environmental assets. Market creation establishes a market in the external benefit or cost in question (e.g. biodiversity or pollution reduction) and leaves the relevant parties to adjust their behaviour accordingly. While most attention has been paid to market creation through tradable permits and taxes (the polluter-pays), it is less easy to secure a perspective on beneficiary-pays initiatives. Both polluter-pays and beneficiary-pays initiatives are examples of modified Coaseian bargains in which governments intervene in the bargains to lower transactions costs, establish property rights, deal with public goods issues, or act on behalf of disadvantaged groups. This paper reviews four major initiatives in this respect - debt-for-nature swaps, bioprospecting and the Global Environment Facility at the global level, and the Costa Rican Forest Law at the local level. It finds that while there is much to applaud in initiatives in these new markets, serious questions remain about the modest flows of funds associated with such global bargains, and the extent to which they secure environmental improvements relative to the baseline of business-as-usual.JEL Classification: D49, D62, H41, O19, Q57, Q2I am indebted to members of the Wildlife Conservation Research Unit at Oxford University and to David Simpson of Resources for the Future and University College London for valuable comments on an earlier version of this paper. Any remaining mistakes are entirely my responsibility.     

内蒙古畜牧业保险发展存在的问题及对策

介绍畜牧业保险的定义及作用,简述内蒙古地区畜牧业保险的发展现状,指出当前内蒙古地区畜牧业保险发展面临的主要问题是畜牧业保险相关法律法规不完善、养殖户投保积极性不高、尚未建立有效的风险分散机制以及理赔流程不完善,最后针对性地给出了健全畜牧业保险法律法规、增强养殖户保险意识、建立有效的风险分散机制、规范理赔流程的建议.     

Credit derivatives and stock return synchronicity

The role of credit default swaps (CDS) in the 2008 financial crisis has been widely debated among regulators, investors, and researchers. While CDS were blamed for destabilizing the financial system, they remain effective tools for hedging credit risk, especially for major banks, and produce positive informational externalities to market participants. This paper examines whether the introduction of CDS enhances the amount of firm-specific information impounded in stock prices. We use stock return synchronicity to measure the amount of firm-specific information reflected in stock prices, with more firm-specific information being associated with a lower level of synchronicity. We find that a firm’s stock return synchronicity decreases after the commencement of CDS trading. This finding is robust to different model specifications, synchronicity measures, and endogeneity controlling methodologies. Furthermore, the decrease in stock return synchronicity is more pronounced for CDS firms with higher credit risk. Overall, our evidence supports the positive role of CDS in improving informativeness of stock prices.     

Mitigation of airspace congestion impact on airline networks

In recent years European airspace has become increasingly congested and airlines can now observe that en-route capacity constraints are the fastest growing source of flight delays. In 2010 this source of delay accounted for 19% of all flight delays in Europe and has been increasing with an average yearly rate of 17% from 2005 to 2010. This paper suggests and evaluates an approach to how disruption management can be combined with flight planning in order to create more proactive handling of the kind of disruptions, which are caused by congested airspace. The approach is evaluated using data from a medium size European carrier and estimates a lower bound saving of several million USD.     

Three-stage airline fleet planning model

One of the main factors affecting airline success is bringing supply and demand as closely together as possible. In order to achieve this goal, an airline needs to adopt an appropriate methodological approach for the fleet planning process. Selection of an aircraft for operating a defined route network is a key element which has a direct impact on the increase of an airline's profitability and on the reduction of an airline's costs. The objective of this paper is to develop a robust model for fleet planning that deals with both fleet size and fleet composition problems for airlines operating on short haul and medium haul routes. The three-stage model for fleet planning involves approximate fleet composition, fleet sizing and aircraft type selection based on fuzzy logic, heuristic and analytic approaches, and multi-criteria decision making, respectively. This model is exemplified with a hypothetical airline based at Belgrade Airport.     

自然灾害、巨灾保险与政府主导

近年来,中国各地频频发生地震、干旱、洪水等自然灾害,给人民群众的生命和财产造成了损失,影响了社会经济的运行。巨灾保险作为一种有效转移自然灾害风险的市场手段,对分担巨灾带来的经济损失、稳定社会经济发挥着重要的作用。而当前中国巨灾保险体系的建设还离不开政府的主导推动,只有政府和保险公司紧密合作,加大巨灾险种的引进创新,利用好再保险和巨灾保险基金等多样化风险转移工具,尽快构建巨灾保险体系,才能有效保障中国经济继续保持又好又快增长。     

钢铁上市公司经营业绩综合评价研究

钢铁上市公司是钢铁行业内的领军企业,其经营业绩直接反映整个行业的盈利状况和发展潜力。本文基于突变理论的思想,结合我国钢铁行业财务分析的特点,从业绩能力和发展能力两个方面,构建了钢铁上市公司经营业绩评价指标体系。采用突变级数法,以普钢类上市公司为例,利用公开的财务数据,对我国25家钢铁上市公司的经营业绩进行了实证研究和综合评价。分析结果显示,普钢类上市公司在经营业绩综合表现方面,尚无具有绝对优势的领先者,盈利质量整体较低,企业的价值创造有待进一步提高;行业内部需要资源整合、优势互补、共同发展。