Efficient estimation of forecast uncertainty based on recent forecast errors

Multi-step-ahead forecasts of the forecast uncertainty of an individual forecaster are often based on the horizon-specific sample means of his recent squared forecast errors, where the number of past forecast errors available decreases one-to-one with the forecast horizon. In this paper, the efficiency gains from the joint estimation of forecast uncertainty for all horizons in such samples are investigated. If the forecast uncertainty is estimated by seemingly unrelated regressions, it turns out that the covariance matrix of the squared forecast errors does not have to be estimated, but simply needs to have a certain structure, which is a very useful property in small samples. Considering optimal and non-optimal forecasts, it is found that the efficiency gains can be substantial for longer horizons in small samples. The superior performance of the seemingly-unrelated-regressions approach is confirmed in several empirical applications.     

组织机构代码在社会活动中的应用研究

组织机构统一代码标识制度,是国家实行市场经济体制和开展信息化建设的一项基本制度。文章介绍了组织机构代码的含义、组织机构代码信息在社会活动中的功能作用、应用现状、存在的问题及发展方向。     

The effect of human image in B2C website design: an eye-tracking study

On B2C shopping websites, effective visual designs can bring about consumers’ positive emotional experience. From this perspective, this article developed a research model to explore the impact of human image as a visual element on consumers’ online shopping emotions and subsequent attitudes towards websites. This study conducted an eye-tracking experiment to collect both eye movement data and questionnaire data to test the research model. Questionnaire data analysis showed that product pictures combined with human image induced positive emotions among participants, thus promoting their attitudes towards online shopping websites. Specifically, product pictures with human image first produced higher levels of image appeal and perceived social presence, thus stimulating higher levels of enjoyment and subsequent positive attitudes towards the websites. Moreover, a moderating effect of product type was demonstrated on the relationship between the presence of human image and the level of image appeal. Specifically, human image significantly increased the level of image appeal when integrated in entertainment product pictures while this relationship was not significant in terms of utilitarian products. Eye-tracking data analysis further supported these results and provided plausible explanations. The presence of human image significantly increased the pupil size of participants regardless of product types. For entertainment products, participants paid more attention to product pictures integrated with human image whereas for utilitarian products more attention was paid to functional information of products than to product pictures no matter whether or not integrated with human image.     

Beauty is the promise of happiness?

We measure the impact of individuals' looks on life satisfaction and happiness. Using six data sets, from Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States, we construct beauty measures in a number of different ways. Beauty raises happiness: A one standard-deviation change in beauty generates about 0.08 standard deviations of additional satisfaction/happiness among men, 0.07 among women. The finding is robust to a rare opportunity to measure it using an instrumental variables approach. Accounting for a wide variety of covariates, particularly educational, marital, and labor-market outcomes that might be affected by beauty, the gross effects are roughly halved, with small reductions arising from the impact of beauty on monetary outcomes.     

组织机构代码数据库应用模式研究

组织机构代码数据库是国民经济信息化建设中重要的基础数据资源。文章通过分析各部门对组织机构代码数据库的应用需求，提出了建立面向终端应用、系统应用和数据库应用等模式，并对服务模式的实现方法进行了初步研究。     

Food Package Familiarity and Perceived Amount of Verbal Information: The Moderating Effect of Frugal Behavior

ABSTRACT

This paper discusses the moderating effect of frugal behavior on the relationship between food package familiarity and the perceived amount of verbal information. Two experiments were conducted on food packaging to analyze two central points: (a) the relationship between food package familiarity and the perceived amount of verbal information and (b) the moderating effect of frugal behavior on this relationship. The studies demonstrate the negative influence of food package familiarity on the perceived amount of verbal information. We demonstrate that the greater (smaller) the familiarity with food packaging is, the smaller (greater) the visual attention to the verbal information will be. Second, we show that frugal behavior moderates this behavior. Our experiment shows that a greater (smaller) tendency toward frugal behavior tends to have a positive (maintain negative) effect on the relationship between food package familiarity and the perceived amount of verbal information.     

Furthering Organizational Priorities with Less Than Truthful Behavior: A Call for Additional Tools

Though codes of ethics exist in many businesses, employees still view less than truthful behaviors to be a significant ethical problem. The current study examines the related and somewhat counterintuitive issue of less than truthful behaviors intended to further organizational priorities. Such behaviors risk violating one organizational priority (e.g., adhering to a code of ethics) to achieve another. Data indicated four unique though non-mutually exclusive motivations: (1) to avoid confrontation or conflict; (2) to ensure quality in the delivery of a product or service; (3) to buy time for an organization’s strategy to play out; and (4) for self-protection or self-enhancement. The evidence further suggests that enhanced managerial training, particularly in handling confrontation and conflicts, could reduce the contradiction between stated codes of ethics and actual behaviors.     

Problems of Emergency Arbitration

This paper explores ethical burdens facing the economics profession which are associated with epistemic features of economic practice. Economists exert power over those they purport to serve by virtue of epistemic asymmetry between themselves and others, i.e., the intellectual monopoly they enjoy over a vitally important body of knowledge. But they also face the problem of epistemic insufficiency, which implies that they may do substantial harm as they try to do good. The paper explores the ethical entailments of the epistemic features of economics, and argues that managing the ethical challenges requires a new field of inquiry, the field of professional economic ethics, and not just a code of conduct.     

What’s in a Credo? A Critique of the Academy of Management’s Code of Ethical Conduct and Code of Ethics

The Academy of Management formally adopted a Code of Ethical Conduct in 1990. During the subsequent 15 years, almost nothing had been published about it and its value as a formal document meant to guide professional practice. Rather surprisingly then, in December 2005 an entirely new Code of Ethics was introduced by the Academy’s Board, to take effect in February 2006. Why was a new code promulgated? More broadly, what do the contents of these codes, the processes of their promulgation, and their expressed purposes, suggest about the value of such codes for similarly situated professional associations, in general? This article seeks to identify key strengths and weaknesses of the original code, begin an assessment of the potential value of the new code, and so stimulate debate. Further, not only is this a call to the members of the Academy to engage in some thoughtful debate and possible amendment of its new code, but also a caution to all such associations to take seriously the hurdles that must be jumped before any code can be developed and promulgated to worthwhile effect.     

A preliminary theoretical examination of the targeted public distribution system in India

A theoretical model of targeting in the public distribution system is set out. In any system of targeting there could be inclusion and exclusion errors. These errors could be reduced by search by the state. The state aims to minimise the costs of food administration subject to keeping the magnitude of the exclusion error bounded. Targeting involves a consideration of the objective poverty level, the official poverty level and the targeted poverty level by the state. The targeted poverty level could be less than the official poverty level if the extent of search is not adequate. The objective poverty level is an increasing function of the above poverty line issue price of food due to exclusion errors, a decreasing function of the procurement price of food and by definition the below poverty line issue price of food. The instruments in the hands of the state are the official poverty level, the above poverty line issue price for food, the procurement price of food and the extent of search. The comparative static implications of the model are set out.