国债期货最便宜交割债券的确定与实证分析

国债期货是指买卖双方通过交易所,约定在未来的某一时间,按照事先约定的价格和数量,进行券款交割的国债交易方式。虽然交易所对国债期货合约标的做了明确规定,但实际上这种名义标准债券并不存在,其对应的是一篮子可交割债券。由于付息和交割日的不同,可交割债券之间也有很大区别。投资者可以选择成本最低、最有利的债券进行交割,该债券就被称为最便宜可交割债券。最便宜可交割债券可通过隐含回购利率法、净基差法来确定。     

中美大豆期货市场价格发现功能比较研究

借助于Johansen协整检验、误差修正模型、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量分析方法对中关两国大豆期货市场价格发现功能进行了实证研究,研究结果表明：中国大豆期货市场在一定程度上具有了价格发现功能,但与期货市场发展相对成熟和完善的美国相比,这一功能的发挥要明显落后于美国。本文提出了增强中国大豆期货市场价格发现功能的相关政策建议。     

欧盟FDI对我国出口商品结构影响的实证分析

本文运用Johansen模型分析了欧盟FDI对我国出口商品结构的影响,并提出了一些具体措施来合理利用欧盟对我国的直接投资。     

Major International Information Flows Across the Safex Wheat Market

We study information flows across four wheat futures markets on four continents: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE), South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX), Euronext/Liffe and Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT). Three approaches for studying information flows among non‐synchronous markets are applied: cointegration techniques, vector autoregressive analysis and multiple regression proposed. Although comparable underlying assets are traded in the four markets, our results indicate that no long‐run links exist among them. ZCE is by far the most endogenous market, and Euronext/Liffe is the most exogenous one. Finally, the model points to KCBT as the most influential and sensitive wheat market. Our findings indicate that the relative openness of the SAFEX wheat market supports information flows and linkages from KCBT and Euronext/Liffe. Therefore, our results suggest that more supportive policies to incentivise higher wheat production in South Africa are required to mitigate the impact of price shocks emanating from the global wheat markets.     

Agricultural commodities pricing model applied to the Brazilian sugar market

This article suggests a pricing model for commodities used to produce biofuel. The model is based on the concept that the deterministic component of the Wiener process is not constant and depends on time and exogenous variables. The model, which incorporates theory of storage, the convenience yield and the seasonality of harvests, was applied in the Brazilian sugar market. After predictions were made with the Kalman filter, the model produced results that were statistically more accurate than those returned by the two‐factor model available in the literature.     

十年之路:中国期货市场的回顾和展望

2000年底,中国期货业协会的成立标志我国期货市场清理整顿的任务已经基本完成,我国期货业将开始步入规范发展的新阶段。至此,经过了10余年的尝试,我国期货市场取得了突飞猛进的发展,本文通过简要概括新阶段我国期货市场发展的新特点,并在此基础上展望未来进一步提出我国期货市场发展中迫切需要解决的问题。     

无形资产商品属性研究及其意义

无形资产是一项特殊的资产 ,长期以来理论界对它的商品属性认识不够 ,这在理论指导实践中导致了一些不合理现象的产生 ,主要表现为无形资产的会计入账规则和评估方式的不合理 ,这一切都是因为理论上不能阐明无形资产的商品属性而造成的。因此 ,研究马克思关于商品属性的论述 ,运用马克思的商品理论对无形资产的商品属性进行分析和论证 ,从而认定无形资产是天生的商品派     

Adoption Dynamics in Buyer-Side Exchanges

The purpose of this paper is to understand buyer/seller adoption dynamics in independent, buyer-side B2B exchanges. In a stylized model, we assume that the main role of the exchange is to reduce search costs for buyers. Buyers and sellers enter or exit the exchange based on the relative economic surplus (loss) they receive inside vs. outside the exchange. We contrast two situations: one where participants' switching cost to join the institution is negligible and another, in which it is significant. In an extension, we also explore the impact of buyer/seller heterogeneity on adoption dynamics. We have three key findings with relevant implications for practice. First, we find that the general view that demand and supply (so-called liquidity) either grows or shrinks in the marketplace may not hold. In the presence of switching costs, the exchange can evolve to a stable state with only partial market participation. Second, our results suggest that the exchange is better off subsidizing buyers as opposed to sellers in order to achieve the so-called critical mass, beyond which there is full participation. Finally, we find that while in general, minor buyers of the industry have more incentive joining the exchange, when the fixed participation fee of the exchange is high, it is major buyers who are likely to join first. For sellers, this is not the case: minor sellers are always more keen in participating in a buyer-side exchange.     

上海原油期货与国际原油期货:联动机制和溢出效应

建立VECM—GARCH—BEKK—T模型,分析了上海原油期货价格与WTI、布伦特两大国际基准油价格之间的传导效应、均值溢出效应、波动溢出效应、BEKK交叉效应以及杠杆效应。研究发现,上海、WTI和布伦特原油期货三个市场存在显著的均值溢出和波动溢出效应。其中,上海原油期货上市重构了WTI和布伦特原油期货两个市场的均衡关系、主导影响因素、影响期限以及波动溢出效应;上海原油期货与国际油价有机联动,对WTI的正向影响要大于对布伦特的影响,但WTI、布伦特对上海的影响依然占主导地位。此外,短期内,当期上海原油期货价格与历史WTI和上海原油期货价格波动联系显著为正,而与历史布伦特原油期货价格则显著为负。因此,需要在持续提高上海原油期货参与者数量、提高国际参与度和认可度、完善原油期货区间波段管理机制、提升原油期货交易量、加快人民币国际化进程等方面努力。