房地产正向财富效应形成的条件分析

房地产对居民消费的财富效应一直是关注的焦点。产生房地产财富正效应的条件为:城市居民二套住房拥有率要大于有潜在住房购买力的家庭占比率。我国应加大调控力度,降低房价,增加公共住房保障供给,大力发展适合中低收入阶层家庭的商品房项目。     

Energy Tax and Competition in Energy Efficiency: The Case of Consumer Durables

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the role of anenergy tax on technical improvements and on prices ofconsumer durables induced by strategic competition inenergy efficiency. If the gasoline tax is raised thisdoes in principle not affect the producers of carsbecause the motorist pays for it in terms of a highercost of using the car. This, however, affects the unitsales of car producers because of substitution towardsother modes of transportation. A second element ofreaction to energy price variation is an indirect oneand relates to the effect of energy prices ontechnology. Competition forces car producers todevelop more energy efficient cars in order to reducethe cost of using a car. This indirect effect canpartly offset the direct effect of higher energyprices on demand if it is profitable for theautomobile industry to engineer more energy efficientequipment. We will analyze the impact of an energy taxon energy efficiency and on the price of a durablegood. This will be done within the framework of aduopoly competing in prices and in the energyefficiency of its products. The government chooses awelfare maximizing energy tax as an incentive toinnovate. Then we will analyze a strategic two-stagedecision process in which the duopolists first decideabout energy efficiency and then compete in prices.     

Utility Regulation and Risk Allocation: The Roles of Marginal Cost Pricing and Futures Markets

The effects on consumer welfare of requiring a utility facing cost or demand risk to use either a fixed retail price or marginal cost pricing are assessed. With marginal cost pricing and cost volatility an efficient futures market allows consumer welfare to be at least as high in every state as with the fixed price. With demand risk marginal cost pricing can benefit the consumer in every state without harming the firm if the profit difference is transferred to the consumer. A futures market can act as a partial replacement for the transfer.     

Access prices,unbundling and product variety in European Internet markets

A fundamental policy in European broadband regulation is unbundled access to the local loop of the incumbent telephone company. We present comparative static results that show as the access price decreases, the retail price decreases, the variety of plans offered by Internet service providers increases and the quantity of each variety increases when a threshold condition is met. Using data from 18 European countries from 2006 to 2012, we find empirical support for these results when Internet product variety is measured by variation in download speeds.     

Price discovery and volatility spillover in spot and futures markets: evidences from steel-related commodities in China

The price discovery and spillover effect are significant indicators in futures markets. This study examines the price discovery and spillover effects using vector error correction model and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic for seven types of steel products in Chinese spot and futures markets. The results show that the price discovery exists in all of steel futures market. It is also confirmed that futures prices in all items are mainly leading spot prices via permanent-transitory and information share. In the results of spillover effects, it is found that wire rod, coking coal, coke and silico-manganese have the effects between spot and futures market. In rebar market, there is the spillover effect from spot to futures. This information about futures prices can help the market participants to make decisions when they predict the spot prices.     

China’s house price: Affected by economic fundamentals or real estate policy?

Many theory and empirical literature conclude that house price can reflect economic fundamentals in the long-term. However, by using China’s panel data of 35 main cities stretching from 1998 to 2007, we find that there is no stable relationship between house price and economic fundamentals. House price has deviated upward from the economic fundamentals since government started macro-control of the real estate market. We consider that the mechanism between the house price and economic fundamentals is distorted by China’s real estate policy, especially its land policy. Meanwhile the policy itself is an important factor in explaining the changes of China’s house price. Then we estimate the dynamic panel data model on house price and the variables which are controlled by real estate policy. The result shows: land supply has negative effects on house price; financial mortgages for real estate have positive effects on house price; and the area of housing sold and the area of vacant housing, which reflects the supply and demand of the housing market, has negative effects on house price. We also find some differences in house price influence factor between eastern and mid-western cities. Finally, we propose policy suggestions according to the empirical results.     

我国畜产品价格波动分析——基于ARCH类模型

运用ARCH类模型对我国主要畜产品的价格波动率进行了分析。结果表明:牛肉、羊肉和鸡肉的价格波动具有显著的波动积聚性,鸡蛋价格波动没有显著的异方差效应;除牛肉市场外,羊肉和鸡肉市场不具有高风险、高回报的特征;猪肉、牛肉、羊肉和鸡肉的价格波动没有非对称性。认为应在畜产品市场出现大的价格波动时及时采取平抑措施,且政府需规范畜产品市场秩序、完善畜产品市场制度。     

房地产价格风险：国际教训、中国的现状及路径选择

房地产泡沫会增加金融风险,房价大幅缩水会导致银行破产,股市下跌。日本、美国、英国、泰国等都爆发过与房地产相关的银行危机。目前,中国房地产金融具有市场风险、财务风险、道德风险和信用风险等潜在风险。应利用税收手段限制投机性购房和短期炒作行为,鼓励中小户型住房的消费,加强城镇廉租住房制度建设,防范“假按揭”风险,完善惩戒机制,加强利率风险管理,完善住房置业担保制度,进一步研究制定房贷保险制度。     

基于BP神经网络的征地区片综合地价评估

文章提出了征地区片综合地价的BP神经网络系统的基本构造,并在充分考虑城市规划和生活水平对征地区片土地价格影响的基础上,对神经网络的评估系统进行了设计.给出了征地区片综合地价评估的指标体系及特征指标的量化计算公式.以雅安市雨城区最新的征地区片综合地价为基础,利用改进的BP神经网络模型对它们进行了训练和模拟,取得了良好的模拟结果,证明了ANN法用来测算征地区片综合地价的可行性和先进性.