Implied integrated variance and hedging

If the volatility is stochastic, stock price returns and European option prices depend on the time average of the variance, i.e. the integrated variance, not on the path of the volatility. Applying a Bayesian statistical approach, we compute a forward-looking estimate of this variance, an option-implied integrated variance. Simultaneously, we obtain estimates of the correlation coefficient between stock price and volatility shocks, and of the parameters of the volatility process. Due to the convexity of the Black–Scholes formula with respect to the volatility, pricing and hedging with Black–Scholes-type formulas and the implied volatility often lead to inaccuracies if the volatility is stochastic. Theoretically, this problem can be avoided by using Hull–White-type option pricing and hedging formulas and the integrated variance. We use the implied integrated variance and Hull–White-type formulas to hedge European options and certain volatility derivatives.     

Lognormal Approximation of Complex Path-Dependent Pension Scheme Payoffs

Abstract

This paper analyzes an explicit return smoothing mechanism which has recently been introduced as part of a new type of pension savings contract that has been offered by Danish life insurers. We establish the payoff function implied by the return smoothing mechanism and show that its probabilistic properties are accurately approximated by a suitably adapted lognormal distribution. The quality of the lognormal approximation is explored via a range of simulation-based numerical experiments, and we point to several other potential practical applications of the paper's theoretical results.     

Equity valuation: A survey of professional practice

This paper reports the results of a scientific survey of the equity valuation practices of CFA Institute members with equity analysis job responsibilities. Using an instrument designed to minimize biases in prior valuation surveys and sampling a larger group than in previous studies (13,500 investment professionals, resulting in 1,980 valid completed questionnaires), this paper documents professional practices in the selection of equity valuation approaches, including specific model variations and key input preferences. Important differences in practice were observed across geographies and employer firm types.     

Joint Management of Emission Abatement and Technological Innovation for Stock Externalities

We investigate how emission abatement and technological innovation provide different solutions to reduce pollutant emissions. In the case of a stock externality emission abatement leads to a smooth and continuous adjustment of emissions. Conversely, technological innovation has to be interpreted as an option on a less polluted environment and can justify the use of a pollution threshold above which it is optimal to start a research and development programme for a less polluting technology. It is shown that technological innovation interferes with the traditional emission abatement approach. The optimal abatement level is logically lowered once the less polluting technology is available; nevertheless a temporary increase in emissions is optimal during the research and development period. The usual Pigouvian tax system proves to remain an efficient corrective instrument. A numerical application to the Greenhouse effect is provided.     

我国商业银行金融创新新途径:结构性理财——动因、问题及对策

近年,商业银行从传统以信贷利息为主要收入来源格局逐渐转为非利息收入加快增长态势。结构性理财产品发展迅速,成为理财产品发行的主导产品。结构性理财产品如结构性存款能改善银行负债状况,对于利率风险和信用风险等有自身化解能力。对商业银行的收入构成、风险控制有其独特作用。本文将结构性理财和非结构性理财进行了比较,对典型的结构性理财产品运作模式作了图解分析。最近,由于零收益率产品市场反映强烈,银行迫切需要在投资者教育和自身设计能力方面加大力气。     

What determines early exercise of employee stock options in Australia?

Employee stock options (ESOs) are a popular way of remunerating employees. We analyse factors at the firm and option level affecting the employee's decision to exercise ESOs before they mature. Exercises over the period 1998–2004 are analysed and the key factor influencing early exercise is found to be dividends. Exercises frequently occur well before maturity, but in most cases little time value is sacrificed. Our findings have implications for the ‘fair’ valuation of ESOs in companies’ financial statements, as required by the relevant Australian accounting standard, AASB 2.     

Duration analysis of venture capital staging: A real options perspective

This study takes a real options perspective towards venture capital staging and views the staging decision as a choice between holding the current option to invest and investing now to obtain the option to invest subsequently. It proposes that this staging decision depends on the factors that influence the value of these two options, such as competition and various sources of uncertainty. The empirical results suggest that market uncertainty encourages venture capital firms to delay investing at each round of financing, whereas competition, project-specific uncertainty and agency concerns prompt venture capital firms to invest sooner. This study has useful implications for theory and practice.     

商检条款不容忽视——如何防范外商利用商品质量问题拖欠货款

商检条款是进出口贸易合同中的一项重要条款,然而又往往是买卖双方在订立合同时容易忽略的条款。本文阐述了商检条款的重要作用,订立商检条款所涉及到的主要问题,并提出了完善商检约定规避外贸风险的建议。     

农业大户和龙头企业领办型农民专业合作社的契约研究——基于交易费用理论的解释

关于农业大户和龙头企业领办型农民专业合作社契约性质有三种观点：企业契约,商品契约,超市场契约。通过案例剖析了此类合作社契约的特征是一个复合性、动态性、权威性的商品契约。运用交易费用理论解释了这一契约产生的经济逻辑是其交易费用既低于纯粹市场契约的交易费用,又低于一体化企业契约的组织成本。其实质是一组无形资产的间接定价机制。这种契约也是一种精巧的制度安排,既将一组无形资产的生产活动卷入社会分工,又避免了对此类活动的投入与产出的直接定价。