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Greg Taylor 《Scandinavian actuarial journal》2013,2013(4):202-242
It is well known that the exponential dispersion family (EDF) of univariate distributions is closed under Bayesian revision in the presence of natural conjugate priors. However, this is not the case for the general multivariate EDF. This paper derives a second-order approximation to the posterior likelihood of a naturally conjugated generalised linear model (GLM), i.e., multivariate EDF subject to a link function (Section 5.5). It is not the same as a normal approximation. It does, however, lead to second-order Bayes estimators of parameters of the posterior. The family of second-order approximations is found to be closed under Bayesian revision. This generates a recursion for repeated Bayesian revision of the GLM with the acquisition of additional data. The recursion simplifies greatly for a canonical link. The resulting structure is easily extended to a filter for estimation of the parameters of a dynamic generalised linear model (DGLM) (Section 6.2). The Kalman filter emerges as a special case. A second type of link function, related to the canonical link, and with similar properties, is identified. This is called here the companion canonical link. For a given GLM with canonical link, the companion to that link generates a companion GLM (Section 4). The recursive form of the Bayesian revision of this GLM is also obtained (Section 5.5.3). There is a perfect parallel between the development of the GLM recursion and its companion. A dictionary for translation between the two is given so that one is readily derived from the other (Table 5.1). The companion canonical link also generates a companion DGLM. A filter for this is obtained (Section 6.3). Section 1.2 provides an indication of how the theory developed here might be applied to loss reserving. A sequel paper, providing numerical illustrations of this, is planned. 相似文献
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Susan L. Holak 《Journal of Business Research》2008,61(5):534-541
This research focuses on the blessing of animals. Blessings are a form of human-animal shared experience that manifests a belief in animal spirituality. Using a multi-method approach, this article investigates the presence of themes that previous research has identified on animal companions. The present study identifies new themes in the context of human-animal sharing experiences by focusing on a recurring ritual blessing event over a six-year period. Ritual blessings reflect the animal companion-consumer relationship lifecycle, particularly the consumption and disposition stages. The emotional bonds between humans and their companion animals affect many consumption-related lifestyle, diet, leisure, and healthcare decisions. 相似文献
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This research starts by distinguishing how different emotion components may be stimulated by different product types. Based on initial findings, a conceptual model is developed and tested that investigates a tourist's emotional arousal as a mediating variable between the tourism activity type and subsequent storytelling intentions. Based on social facilitation theory and self-expansion model, this research further investigates the potential moderating effect of having a travel companion and that companion's relative ability related to the tourism activity type on the impact of tourism activity type on emotional arousal. Four experiments are used to test the hypothesized relationships. Findings indicate that an experiential purchase has a greater effect on emotional arousal (not pleasure) than the purchase of a physical good. A more challenging(relaxing) tourist activity has a stronger(weaker) positive impact on emotional arousal and a tourist's storytelling intentions. Emotional arousal fully mediates the effect of tourism activity type on storytelling intentions. Having a travel companion, or not, was found to moderate the relationship of tourist activity type and emotional arousal. A challenging tourism activity has a stronger positive effect on a tourist's arousal when traveling with a companion. The arousal effect of engaging in a challenging tourism activity is attenuated when traveling alone. Moreover, based on the moderating effect of having a companion, or not, the perceived ability of a travel companion regarding the type of activity engaged in, was also found to moderate the link between activity type and emotional arousal. The greater the traveling companion's relative perceived ability, the greater the effect on emotional arousal for challenging tourism activities. This effect is attenuated when the ability of the traveling companion is perceived as less than that of the tourist. The paper closes with a discussion of theoretical contributions and managerial implications derived from the findings. 相似文献
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设计电子作业本系统,利用无线局域网进行传输,通过全新作业提交、评价、反馈方式,转变教学模式。让教师、学生体验新技术所带来的教学学习便利与效率质量提高。让学生真切感受到教师关注与成绩透明公平,增强学习主人翁意识,深化学生为主、教师为辅的探究型学习模式。 相似文献
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