理性预期、完全时间一致性与最优利率规则——一个基于无穷远视角的分析

本文以基准的线性理性预期模型为框架,在对无穷远视角的观点赋予新的解释的基础上,分析比较了利率规则的全局最优解SG、条件承诺最优解SCC、相机抉择最优解SD、时间一致性最优解STP和完全时间一致性最优解SFTP这五种形式的最优解的优劣性.我们发现,虽然SG(丫)SCC(丫)SD((丫)表示"较优于"或"较强于"),但SG和SCC是时间不一致性解,它们最终会退化为SD的形式;又因为STP是SCC的上确界,因而也未必绝对优于SD;最后,SFTP相对于SD是占优解,它等价于在STP的基础上规定社会贴现因子等于1,它所对应的均衡符合时间一致性均衡,是稳态均衡的本质内涵,它相当于在原有的线性理性预期模型框架内增加了两类约束条件,同时随机非稳态社会损失福利函数也相应地转变为随机稳态社会损失福利函数.     

冲突管理:研究动态与展望

冲突管理对个人、组织和人类社会的发展至关重要.本文回顾了西方学者对冲突和冲突管理的重要研究成果,对冲突和冲突管理的内涵、影响因素和意义等方面的研究成果分别进行梳理与述评,并指出当前冲突管理研究的不足和今后的研究方向.     

对比率税制下平衡预算乘数相关问题的思考

在比率税制下,平衡预算乘数是否等于1,学者们提出了各自的见解,其主要根源在于不同学者对平衡预算乘数定义中政府净税收和政府购买支出同时变化这一"同时"的理解存在分歧。根据平衡预算乘数的定义,考虑到比率税制下税收乘数的推导引入了时间因素,为保证平衡预算时政府净税收和政府购买支出的"同时"变动,平衡预算乘数的计算也要引入时间因素。因而,确保时间一致性是正确推导平衡预算乘数的基本前提。     

城乡统筹:体制上的传承变革与今日启迪

统筹城乡发展,需要观念、机制和体制的诸多变革,而首要的是对城乡统筹机制的形成进行一番彻底的梳理.从体制的传承变革上看,中国经济体制、财政体制改革过程中曾经出现的"统收统支"体制、分成制、包干体制、分税制以及转移支付制度对城乡统筹机制具有诸多深层次影响.城乡统筹中的主体性问题、激励机制的设计、统筹资金的筹措以及相应的制度保障等重要方面都可以从体制的传承变革中找到相应线索,从而有助于我们更好地进行今日的城乡统筹实践.     

机制、机制形成和我国城乡统筹机制形成

我国由于长期的城乡二元经济结构体制的存在,城乡统筹将是一个长期的推动过程,为确保城乡统筹的有效推进,构建形成城乡统筹的有效机制是当前迫切需要解决、带有根本性的理论和实践问题.机制设计理论以及演化博弈论是城乡统筹机制形成的两条主要思路.基于机制设计理论,可以进一步给出我国城乡统筹机制形成中的六大重要机制.     

A consistent estimator in general functional errors-in-variables models

The problem of estimation in nonlinear functional errors-in-variables model is considered. A modified least squares estimator is studied, its consistency and asymptotic normality is established. Simulation results are also presented showing the performance of the estimator in comparison with the naive ordinary least squares estimator. Received: June 1999     

人—组织匹配研究述评:范畴、测量及应用

本文在对人与组织匹配领域近30年的研究进行回顾的基础上,从理论范畴、测量方式和手段、基于理论的相关应用研究等三方面,对国外人与组织匹配理论的研究历程和成果进行了系统的梳理和归纳,并对当前研究中存在的问题进行了讨论,进而指出了这一课题未来的研究方向.     

发展县域经济实现城乡统筹

我国由于城乡二元经济结构体制的长期存在,城乡统筹将是一个长期的推动过程,为确保城乡统筹的有效推进,构建形成城乡统筹的有效机制是当前迫切需要解决、带有根本性的理论和实践问题。     

Empirical Likelihood Approach for Aligning Information from Multiple Surveys

When two surveys carried out separately in the same population have common variables, it might be desirable to adjust each survey's weights so that they give equal estimates for the common variables. This problem has been studied extensively and has often been referred to as alignment or numerical consistency. We develop a design-based empirical likelihood approach for alignment and estimation of complex parameters defined by estimating equations. We focus on a general case when a single set of adjusted weights, which can be applied to both common and non-common variables, is produced for each survey. The main contribution of the paper is to show that the impirical log-likelihood ratio statistic is pivotal in the presence of alignment constraints. This pivotal statistic can be used to test hypotheses and derive confidence regions. Hence, the empirical likelihood approach proposed for alignment possesses the self-normalisation property, under a design-based approach. The proposed approach accommodates large sampling fractions, stratification and population level auxiliary information. It is particularly well suited for inference about small domains, when data are skewed. It includes implicit adjustments when the samples considerably differ in size. The confidence regions are constructed without the need for variance estimates, joint-inclusion probabilities, linearisation and re-sampling.     

The importance of incompleteness

Kotaro Suzumura can be seen as the most complete social choice theorist the subject has ever had. No area of social choice has failed to benefit from Suzumura's penetrating analyses. Among the many important contributions made by Suzumura is the use of the idea of incompleteness of evaluation in his analysis of consistency, particularly in the form of what has come to be called “Suzumura consistency”. In this paper I explore the need for allowing – and incorporating – incompleteness of preferences in choice theory in general and social choice in particular. This is followed by a number of critical enquiries. Why is incompleteness important? How does it arise as an essential part of rational reflections? What are its implications (i) for prudential decisions, and (ii) for ethical judgments? Finally, how should making room for incompleteness influence theories of justice?