Efficiency characteristics of a market for state contingent claims

This paper concludes that a market for state-contingent claims (UK horserace betting) displays evidence of pervasive but heterogeneous forms of inefficiency, in significant contrast to earlier investigations. Using hitherto unavailable data, comparison of notional returns implicit in parallel sets of bookmaker and parimutuel odds identifies inefficiency in terms of zones of distinct but contrasting forms of cross-;market returns differential. The inefficiency is rationalized in terms of both buyer and supplier behaviour; its durability is explained in terms of limited arbitrage opportunities.     

增长极战略的实现机制与中国实践模式的重构

增长极理论是20世纪50年代新古典区域均衡发展理论遭遇危机之后的新选择,但自其诞生以来由于缺乏成功案例的支持而备受争议。我国区域非均质、不平衡使得增长极模式备受推崇,但在发展中同样遭遇困境。鉴于理论与现实鲜明的反差,以增长极的实现机制为切入点剖析了该理论的不足,指出我国三大增长极在实践中存在政府依赖刚性、自我发展能力弱、关联效应差等问题,认为完整的增长极实现机制应包括形成机制、运行机制和扩散机制,并从这三大机制入手重构了中国增长极的实践模式,提出相关政策建议。     

大学生个人知识管理促进其职业发展

在知识经济时代,面对知识的种类日益繁多且瞬息更新,只有通过正确的个人知识管理,不断提高自身综合素养,增强自身竞争力,大学生才能顺利地促进个人职业的发展。     

消费者自我控制:文献评述与研究展望

本文对消费者自我控制的相关研究成果进行了回顾,比较了偏好随时间不一致、热(情感)—冷(认知)处理机制、自我消耗、思维方式、过度自我控制及理由启发式等各种理论学派对消费者自我控制的界定、测量、起因、影响因素等方面的不同研究,从而对消费者自我控制的相关研究成果进行了系统梳理、总结与讨论,最后提出了在中国社会文化背景下进行消费者自我控制研究的设想与展望。     

美国信用消费法律制度及其对中国的启示

美国作为世界上信用消费制度最发达的国家之一,其信用消费立法一直备受关注。2009年的《金融改革方案》虽然确立了消费者保护的目标,但也给经济发展带来了更大的不确定性。在信用消费立法联邦化的趋势下,州立法实施更为严格的消费者保护标准受到联邦优先权的重压,也从实质上削弱了对金融消费者的保护力度。中国应当借鉴美国信用消费制度,确立政府的监管目标和价值取向,以国家立法和地方立法相结合作为主要立法模式,完善信息披露制度并建立完备的信用评估体系,设立专门的信用消费者保护机构,以更好地维护消费者权益。     

Solvability of perturbation solutions in DSGE models

We prove that the undetermined Taylor series coefficients of local approximations to the policy function of arbitrary order in a wide class of discrete time dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are solvable by standard DSGE perturbation methods under regularity and saddle point stability assumptions on first order approximations. Extending the approach to nonstationary models, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for solvability, as well as an example in the neoclassical growth model where solvability fails. Finally, we eliminate the assumption of solvability needed for the local existence theorem of perturbation solutions, complete the proof that the policy function is invariant to first order changes in risk, and attribute the loss of numerical accuracy in progressively higher order terms to the compounding of errors from the first order transition matrix.     

Deep learning for modeling the collection rate for third-party buyers

This study evaluates a wide range of machine learning techniques such as deep learning, boosting, and support vector regression to predict the collection rate of more than 65,000 defaulted consumer credits from the telecommunications sector that were bought by a German third-party company. Weighted performance measures were defined based on the value of exposure at default for comparing collection rate models. The approach proposed in this paper is useful for a third-party company in managing the risk of a portfolio of defaulted credit that it purchases. The main finding is that one of the machine learning models we investigate, the deep learning model, performs significantly better out-of-sample than all other methods that can be used by an acquirer of defaulted credits based on weighted-performance measures. By using unweighted performance measures, deep learning and boosting perform similarly. Moreover, we find that using a training set with a larger proportion of the dataset does not improve prediction accuracy significantly when deep learning is used. The general conclusion is that deep learning is a potentially performance-enhancing tool for credit risk management.     

Nearly exact sample size calculation for powerful non‐randomized tests for differences between binomial proportions

In the case of two independent samples, it turns out that among the procedures taken in consideration, BOSCHLOO'S technique of raising the nominal level in the standard conditional test as far as admissible performs best in terms of power against almost all alternatives. The computational burden entailed in exact sample size calculation is comparatively modest for both the uniformly most powerful unbiased randomized and the conservative non‐randomized version of the exact Fisher‐type test. Computing these values yields a pair of bounds enclosing the exact sample size required for the Boschloo test, and it seems reasonable to replace the exact value with the middle of the corresponding interval. Comparisons between these mid‐N estimates and the fully exact sample sizes lead to the conclusion that the extra computational effort required for obtaining the latter is mostly dispensable. This holds also true in the case of paired binary data (McNemar setting). In the latter, the level‐corrected score test turns out to be almost as powerful as the randomized uniformly most powerful unbiased test and should be preferred to the McNemar–Boschloo test. The mid‐N rule provides a fairly tight upper bound to the exact sample size for the score test for paired proportions.     

儿童英语游戏教学与注意力及学习成绩关系的研究

游戏是儿童生活的一个重要组成部分,把游戏运用于儿童英语教学中,让儿童玩中学、做中学,实现"寓教于乐"的教学原则,这正是儿童英语游戏教学的出发点和最终目的。儿童英语教学采用游戏教学法是因为它有许多非常明显的教育功能,如激发学生学习兴趣、有利于学生身心和智能的发展、促进儿童社会化发展等。笔者认为,在儿童英语课上应大力提倡游戏教学,因为它符合儿童学习的认知规律和身心发展规律,同时也能使儿童注意力在课堂上能够迅速而有效的集中,实验证明,长期的坚持儿童英语游戏教学还能有效的提高儿童的注意力水平,实施游戏教学不但符合儿童的心理特点而且能大幅度的提高了儿童英语学习成绩。     

吴门画派园林绘画中城墙的风景内涵： 以《东庄图》和《拙政园三十一景图》 为例

以《东庄图》和《拙政园三十一景图》中的城墙景 观为研究对象,采用图像和园林历史情境互证的方法,通过 由图到园和由园及城的系统分析,解译了这2套园林绘画中城 墙形象出现的画理依据、造园因素和城市风景文化情结,认 为城墙形象在沈周和文徵明为代表的吴门画派的园林题材绘 画作品中具有指示园林地望的作用,同时城墙也是当时城内 和城外园林的重要借景对象;随着城市的功能转移,城墙周 围的城市边缘区域对于园林的布局起到空间的牵引作用,究 其原因与被内外城河环绕区域丰富的园艺空地和良好的水运 交通分不开,最终形成了半村半城的园林和城市的空间耦合 关系。旨在为苏州古城历史上形成的园林和城市风貌关系的 传承和保护有所助益。