Researching Preferences,Valuation and Hypothetical Bias

A number of recent papers in environmental economics have focused on the process of researching preferences – agents are uncertain about preferences but with effort may narrow their uncertainty. This issue has arisen in formulating bids in contingent valuation (CV) as well as the debate over the divergence between WTP and WTA. In the context of CV, it has been suggested that the hypothetical nature of the preference elicitation process biases responses. This paper provides both a theoretical model and experimental evidence to contribute to this debate. The model is a model of competitive bidding for a private good with two components that are particularly relevant to the debate. The first component is that bidders are unsure of their own value for the private good but may purchase information about their own value (researching preferences). The second component is that there is a probability that the auction is hypothetical – that the winning bidder will not get the private good and will not pay the winning bid. The experiment tests this theoretical model of bidding equilibrium and analyzes the effects of variations in the parameters (hypotheticalness, information costs and number of agents) on the endogenous variables (such as the proportion of bidders who become informed and the winning bid). Experimental results suggest that an increase in the hypotheticalness of an auction tends to decrease the likelihood that bidders pay for information on their valuation with an ambiguous effect on the winning bid.      

论企业核心竞争力的文化根基

企业核心竞争力是最近几年来影响较大也是很重要的一个企业战略管理概念。文章从企业文化、创新、信息化建设、品牌、人才战略、价值观和企业理念等方面探讨企业核心竞争力形成的文化根源。     

消费和谐论:面向科学发展观的消费理论

文章从消费系统均衡的角度出发，运用一般均衡原理研究了消费系统实现均衡的和谐机制，探讨了消费者在和谐机制运行中的主导地位，进而分析了消费和谐论与科学发展观的有机统一。最后指出以人为本、协调发展、提高消费在GDP中的比重对于科学发展观和消费和谐论的重要性。     

善因营销中的消费者感知和反应研究

善因营销是企业履行社会责任的重要战略形式，因兼顾企业、消费者、非营利组织、社会等多方利益而广受关注。消费者对企业及其善因营销行为的感知和反应是善因营销战略能否成功的关键。但影响感知和反应的因素错综复杂，包含了资助时间、规模、事项类型、企业声誉及消费者个性等不同方面。不同的企业应该区别对待。     

The Effect of Respondent Experience/Knowledge in the Elicitation of Contingent Values: An Investigation of Convergent Validity,Procedural Invariance and Reliability

Tests of convergent validity and procedural invariance were used to investigate whether individuals lacking direct experience with a commodity can provide valid responses to contingent-valuation questions eliciting ex post use values. Convergent validity between samples with and without experience was shown to hold for dichotomous-choice responses, but not for open-ended responses.     

文化变迁与教育价值观

文化变迁是历史发展的必然。我国文化现代变迁的主要特征为开放性、多元性。在重视人与人之间的关系、轻视人与自然之间关系的中国传统价值观的直接影响下,传统的中国教育价值观具有如下特点:重视教育的工具价值,轻视其内在价值;群体利益高于个人利益;重视教育的道德伦理价值,轻视其认知价值。当前,我们要注意科学价值观与人文价值观的有机结合,做好教育价值观的转型工作。     

消费品市场有效供给不足的成因及对策

在买方市场条件下 ,我国消费品市场有效供给不足表现为 :消费品市场上的商品价位与消费者的市场收入层次错位、名优品牌和知名品牌商品少、城乡消费鸿沟加深。造成消费品市场有效供给不足的原因是 :消费品生产的市场定位出现误差、生产技术含量低、市场营销能力不强等。要达到消费品市场均衡 ,必须要做好市场定位、提高产品的技术含量、推进名牌战略、降低经营成本     

在商法与消费者法之间寻求平衡的保险法--美国《责任保险法重述》评述与启示

《责任保险法重述》可以说是美国保险法近年来发展的总结。《重述》以被保险人与保险人之间的权利义务关系为中心展开,以亲保险人规则(Pro Insurer Rule)与亲被保险人规则(Pro Insured Rule)之间的冲突博弈为主线,在保险合同解释、不实陈述、抗辩义务、强制执行与救济等方面对规则进行了澄清。伴随着金融消费者权益保护运动的兴起,我国保险法未来发展是更偏向于消费者权益保护法还是商法,长期以来存在争议。由于美国对我国保险法的规则制定和保险业务实践均有不同程度的影响,因此,以《重述》作为我们观察的制度样本,不仅可以从规则内容上为我国保险法改革提供借鉴;而且还提供了以"美国"作为方法论,探讨《重述》经历项目性质变更,在后金融危机时代保护保险消费者利益与维护保险人商业经营之间所作的努力与妥协,为我们回答"商法"与"消费者法"之争提供参考。     

A Semiparametric Method for Valuing Residential Locations: Application to Automated Valuation

This paper is motivated by automated valuation systems, which would benefit from an ability to estimate spatial variation in location value. It develops theory for the local regression model (LRM), a semiparametric approach to estimating a location value surface. There are two parts to the LRM: (1) an ordinary least square (OLS) model to hold constant for interior square footage, land area, bathrooms, and other structural characteristics; and (2) a non-parametric smoother (local polynomial regression, LPR) which calculates location value as a function of latitude and longitude. Several methods are used to consistently estimate both parts of the model. The LRM was fit to geocoded hedonic sales data for six towns in the suburbs of Boston, MA. The estimates yield substantial, significant and plausible spatial patterns in location values. Using the LRM as an exploratory tool, local peaks and valleys in location value identified by the model are close to points identified by the tax assessor, and they are shown to add to the explanatory power of an OLS model. Out-of-sample MSE shows that the LRM with a first-degree polynomial (local linear smoothing) is somewhat better than polynomials of degree zero or degree two. Future applications might use degree zero (the well-known NW estimator) because this is available in popular commercial software. The optimized LRM reduces MSE from the OLS model by between 5 percent and 11 percent while adding information on statistically significant variations in location value.     

Impact of Divergent Consumer Confidence on Option Prices

This paper investigates the impact of divergent consumer confidence on option prices. To model this, we assume that consumers disagree on the expected growth rate of aggregate consumption. With other conditions unchanged in the discrete-time Black–Scholes option-pricing model, we show that the representative consumer will have declining relative risk aversion instead of the assumed constant relative risk aversion. In this case all options will be underpriced by the Black–Scholes model under the assumption of bivariate lognormality. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.