中国省际高新技术产业技术创新的 TFP测算及收敛趋势研究

采用DEA Malmquist方法与Bootstrap方法相结合,本文对2000-2010年间我国省际高新技术产业技术创新的TFP进行了测算,并对区域高新产业技术创新的TFP变化差异进行了收敛性检验。研究结果显示,2000-2010年间我国高新技术产业技术创新效率处于不断波动中,技术创新效率的改进并不理想;从三大区域和各省市的情况来看,高新技术产业技术创新效率变动方向存在显著差异;短期内,各区域高新技术产业技术创新的TFP变化呈现一定的发散性,长期则具有较强的收敛趋势。     

旅游产业的区域集聚、收敛与就业差异:基于分省面板的说明

本文利用1992-2005年分省面板数据分析了中国旅游产业,主要是饭店业和旅行社业的区域集聚,以及在此过程可能出现的收敛和发散;研究发现分省数据无法有效提供产业的分布对就业的显著影响,但是,分区域(东部、东北、中部和西部)的数据表明,1992-2001年旅游产业的集聚总体上呈现发散态势,而2002年之后则呈现收敛态势,并且显著地支持就业增长的假说.最后,根据这些结论提出合理的政策建议.     

Welfare Effects of Technological Convergence in Processed Food Industries

We develop a monopolistic competition model to investigate effects of international technological convergence on factor rewards, output composition, and welfare. Comparative static analysis indicates technological convergence improves the follower's—but impairs the leader's—international competitiveness. The leader's welfare improves unambiguously; the follower's welfare depends on the relative strength of convergence's income and terms-of-trade effects. We use data from seventeen food industries in thirty countries, 1993–2001, to test these analytical predictions. Evidence of convergence is found in thirteen of seventeen industries. Convergence lifts followers' relative wages and global value-added shares. Followers benefit from convergence's positive income effect. Leaders benefit from higher terms of trade.     

全球海运铁矿石市场承压解析与行业影响

世界钢产量峰期出现在2000年以后,其高速增长动力主要来源于中国,而中国铁矿石原矿资源禀赋的劣势,愈发刺激了中国对国际海运铁矿石的需求,致使中国铁矿石需求的对外依存度较高,与此同时,作为铁矿石纯进口国的中国难以主导铁矿石定价权。2011年国际铁矿石市场正值高位运行,大部分铁矿石生产商在高价驱使下,选择大幅增加投资成本扩建产能,海运铁矿石市场供需基本面开始倒转。2015年以来,铁矿石中国到岸价大幅下跌,铁矿石生产巨头由于低廉的现金生产成本也只能勉强盈利或者维持在盈亏平衡线附近,高成本矿被实质性挤压出局。而美国量化宽松政策收紧乃至退出,导致金融流动性降低,进一步巩固了全球铁矿石市场"供强需弱"的格局。由于国内高成本铁矿项目的退出,中国铁矿石需求对外依存度将会进一步升高。     

中日韩三国的公允价值计量属性比较研究——基于财务会计概念框架角度

作者在研究过程中,综述了公允价值计量属性的相关理论.在比较中日韩三国财务会计概念框架中,作者在公允价值计量属性表述的基础上,分析了中日韩三国之间的差异,提出中日韩会计准则制定机构在公允价值研究领域存在着区域性合作的共同课题,并就加强合作的路径安排提出了笔者的构想.     

Are Turkey's tourism markets converging? Evidence from the two-step LM and three-step RALS-LM unit root tests

In this study, we aim to analyse whether Turkey's 14 major tourist source markets are converging by using monthly data over the period January 1996 to December 2012. To this aim, we use the recently developed two-step Lagrange multiplier (LM) and three-step residual augmented least squares-Lagrange multiplier (RALS-LM) unit root tests that allow for two structural breaks in data. The results indicate that 10 out of 14 markets are converging, meaning that tourism policies and strategies directed at these markets are successful. Furthermore, the break points correspond to the important political, social, natural and economic events such as crisis, earthquake, disease and terrorist attack.     

Asymptotics for Autocovariances and Integrated Periodograms for Linear Processes Observed at Lower Frequencies

One of the most frequently used class of processes in time series analysis is the one of linear processes. For many statistical quantities, among them sample autocovariances and sample autocorrelations, central limit theorems are available in the literature. We investigate classical linear processes under a nonstandard observation pattern; namely, we assume that we are only able to observe the linear process at a lower frequency. It is shown that such observation pattern destroys the linear structure of the observations and leads to substantially different asymptotic results for standard statistical quantities. Central limit theorems are given for sample autocovariances and sample autocorrelations as well as more general integrated periodograms and ratio statistics. Moreover, for specific autoregressive processes, the possibilities to estimate the parameters of the underlying autoregression from lower frequency observations are addressed. Finally, we suggest for autoregressions of order 2 a valid bootstrap procedure. A small simulation study demonstrates the performance of the bootstrap proposal for finite sample size.     

产业融合产生过程的模型研究

根据自组织理论,产业融合产生的过程以融合型产品出现为标志,分为从无到有、从出现到实现两个阶段。文章结合单个产业发展模型,构建了产业融合产生过程的数学模型,并在此基础上运用数值模拟统计软件对产业融合产生过程的模型进行了验证。文章认为,产业融合模型的合理性及融合型产品的替代效应在产业融合的实现过程中起着关键作用。     

ASEAN's New Frontiers: Integrating the Newest Members into the ASEAN Economic Community

Since Vietnam, Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR), Myanmar, and Cambodia joined the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the 1990s, concerns have been raised over a Development Divide. The real division is between ASEAN members participating in the integrated East Asian economy and those that do not. The older ASEAN members have become more efficient traders, and Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam must reform faster if they are to catch up. Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar are not meeting the challenge, but Vietnam may be leaving the laggards, and the Philippines is lagging the leaders. The challenge is how to avoid a two‐tier ASEAN with fast‐growing modern economies coexisting besides inward‐looking poor countries.     

Geographical location and urbanisation of the Swedish manufacturing industry, 1900–1960: evidence from a new database

Abstract

This article introduces a new database, based on official statistics, of regional manufacturing industries in Sweden. We employ this database to examine the distribution of manufacturing activity across Swedish regions and cities, 1900–1960. Over this period we observe an increasing concentration of manufacturing activities, reaching a peak around 1940, across the northern, southern and western parts (NUTS-I areas) of Sweden. Over the same period, the North-South divide in terms of manufacturing employment grew larger. Across counties (NUTS-III) and cities we, however, observe two shorter periods of convergence of manufacturing activities, in the early twentieth century and in the post-war period, whereas the inter-war period was characterised by divergence. These developments occurred to the backdrop of the urbanisation of industry in Sweden, as the rural share of manufacturing employment declined from roughly 60 to 25% between 1900 and 1960. We also find that the regional patterns of individual industries over time followed different trajectories, suggesting that that the determinants of industry location differed significantly across industries.