Effect of driver,roadway, collision,and vehicle characteristics on crash severity: a conditional logistic regression approach

The aim of the study is to examine the factors that appear to have a higher potential for serious injury or death of drivers in traffic accidents in Turkey, such as collision type, roadway surface, vehicle speed, alcohol/drug use, and restraint use. Driver crash severity is the dependent variable of this study with two categories, fatal and non-fatal. Due to the binary nature of the dependent variable, a conditional logistic regression analysis was found suitable. Of the 16 independent variables obtained from Turkish police accident reports, 11 variables were found most significantly associated with driver crash severity. They are age, education level, restraint use, roadway condition, roadway type, time of day, collision location, collision type, number and direction of vehicles, vehicle speed, and alcohol/drug use. This study found that belted drivers aged 18–25 years involving two vehicles travelling in the same direction, in an urban area, during the daytime, and on an avenue or a street have better chances of survival in traffic accidents.     

Dyadic Exploration of the Relationship of Leisure Satisfaction,Leisure Time,and Gender to Relationship Satisfaction

The stress suppressing model proposes that sufficient resources reduce stress. The stress exposure model suggests that certain factors expose individuals to more stress. The current study tested these two models by assessing the within-person lagging effect of leisure time on perceived severity of daily stressors. Analyzing eight-day diary data (N=2,022), we found that having more leisure time than usual on a day reduced perceived severity of daily stressors the next day and that the decrease in severity became larger with further increase in leisure time. Additionally, the effect is much stronger among busy individuals who usually had little leisure time. The findings demonstrated an accelerated suppressing effect that differed between-person, and the lagging effect affords stronger implication for causality than correlational analysis.     

The influence of guarantees,active requests to voice and failure severity on customer complaint behavior

Anecdotal evidence suggests that service guarantees and requests by service workers to complain encourage customers to voice following failure, while holding negative word of mouth and exit at bay. However, empirical support for these tactics is limited. To address this deficiency, we conducted an experiment examining the influence of these devices on customer complaint behavior (CCB) across restaurant failures of varying severity. Findings suggest that offering a guarantee, regardless of it being unconditional or combined, encourages voice. Failure severity had the strongest influence on CCB, and it interacted with both active request and guarantee type in influencing exit. Theoretical and managerial implications of the findings are discussed.     

Impacts of land-cover change on the water flow regulation ecosystem service: Invasive alien plants,fire and their policy implications

Land and water resource issues typically fall under separate governance systems. For example, agricultural policy regulates land-cover change while water departments regulate water quality. However, land-use changes can directly affect water resources. Water flow regulation is a key service which is affected by changes in land-cover but its dynamics are poorly understood by most policy makers and land management organisations. We simulated and quantified the effects of plant invasions on land-cover, hydrological soil characteristics and catchment responsiveness on flow regulation using a hydrological model. The case study was located in the indigenous fynbos shrublands in South Africa. Fynbos requires fire to regenerate, has moderate biomass, occurs mostly in areas with a potential to erode and is prone to invasion by woody plant species, particularly trees. Invasions can affect flow regulation by changing community structure and function and increasing fuel loads. The greater fuel load increases fire intensity and severity which, in turn, changes the hydrological responses of catchments. Few studies have assessed the effects of invasion on hydrological responses but studies on plantations have recorded significant increases in soil water repellence following fire, resulting in increased overland flow similar to impacts of fires in invaded areas. Simulation of clear-felling of pines and different degrees of water repellency increased both the responsiveness of the catchment to rainfall and extreme rainfall events. The simulated fire effects were consistent with other studies of hydrological responses to fire. Our study indicates that invasions of pines and acacias in the study area could substantially increase the risk of flood damage even from moderate rainfall events, and highlights the importance of maintaining flow regulation capacity. New policy approaches are required which take account of the linkages and interactions between land-use choices, water resources and ecosystem services, and address them when considering governance arrangements.     

Social media information dissemination and corporate bad news hoarding

This paper investigates the role of social media in mitigating corporate bad news hoarding from a stock price crash risk perspective. Using a sample of public listed firms from 2008–2019, we find that social media (Guba) posts could significantly reduce firms’ stock price crash risks in the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, we find that the information intermediation function and complementary corporate governance function enable Guba to achieve such an effect. In addition, investor attention mediates the relationship between Guba posts and management withholding bad news. Our result still holds after a series of robustness checks, including an RDD approach.     

Stock price crash risk and CEO power: Firm-level analysis

This study examines the impact of stock price crash risk on future CEO power. Using a large panel sample with 17,816 firm-year observations, we posit and find a significant negative impact of stock price crash risk on CEO power, suggesting that CEO power becomes smaller after stock price crashes. We also find that our results are stronger for firms with female CEOs and are largely driven by firms with shorter-tenure CEOs. In addition, we find that the significant negative impact of stock price crash risk on CEO power is diminished for firms with strong corporate governance. Our study responds to the call in Habib, Hasan, and Jiang (2018) by providing more empirical evidence on the consequences of stock price crash risk.     

Risk-type density diagrams by crash type on two-lane rural roads

The research presented here aims to plot density diagrams per road crash risk type to identify all possible scenarios where driving is less than safe. The starting point was the prediction of injury crash rate on horizontal homogeneous segments of two-lane rural roads for three main injurious crash types (head-on/side collisions, rear-end crashes, and single-vehicle run-off-road crashes) as observed on the network. A careful analysis of the database shows that a wide variety of factors appear to be influenced or associated with the crash dynamic, as follows: the road scenario (combination of infrastructure and environmental conditions found at the site at the time of the crash), mean lane width, the horizontal curvature indicator (measurement of the curvature change rate), and mean speed. Crashes recorded from 2003 to 2010, of which 1597 were injurious, and 645 resulted only in damage to property, were analyzed on more than 3700?km of road network in Southern Italy. Generalized estimating equations with a negative binomial distribution were implemented. Risk-type density charts were plotted to thoroughly identify all possible combinations of existing explicative variables producing hazardous conditions on the road. The different shades in the diagrams represent different ranges of injurious crash rates: the white band shows low levels, while a black band shows high values. It is not possible to consider working on an explanatory variable to reduce hazardous conditions on the road network without also considering how this variation might affect the influence of the remaining explanatory variables on crash phenomena and, consequently, on the predictive model. The risk maps make it possible to keep under control in a simple and immediate approach the way each variable as a result of variations of a part or of all.     

A monotonically converging algorithm for the severity of ruin in a discrete semi-markov risk model

This paper deals with the severity of ruin in a discrete semi-Markov risk model. It is shown that the work of Reinhard and Snoussi (Stochastic Models, 18) can be extended to cover the case where the premium is an integer value and no restriction on the annual result is imposed. In particular, it is shown that the severity of ruin without initial surplus is solution of a system of equations. It can be obtained by a monotonically converging algorithm when the claims are bounded.     

On the severity of ruin in a Markov-modulated risk model

We consider a Markov-modulated risk model in which the claim inter-arrivals, amounts and premiums are influenced by an external Markovian environment process. A system of Laplace transforms of the probabilities of the severity of ruin, given the initial environment state, is established from a system of integro-differential equations derived by Snoussi [The severity of ruin in Markov-modulated risk models Schweiz Aktuarver. Mitt., 2002, 1, 31–43]. In the two-state model, explicit formulas for probabilities of the severity of ruin are derived, when the initial reserve is zero or when both claim amount distributions are from the rational family. Numerical illustrations are also given.     

Risk-managed industry momentum and momentum crashes

This paper investigates Barroso and Santa-Clara’s [J. Financ. Econ., 2008, 116, 111–120] risk-managed momentum strategy in an industry momentum setting. We investigate several traditional momentum strategies including that recently proposed by Novy-Marx [J. Financ. Econ., 2012, 103, 429–453]. We moreover examine the impact of different variance forecast horizons on average pay-offs and also Daniel and Moskowitz’s [J. Financ. Econ., 2016, 122, 221–247] optionality effects. Our results show in general that neither plain industry momentum strategies nor the risk-managed industry momentum strategies are subject to optionality effects, implying that these strategies have no time-varying beta. Moreover, the benefits of risk management are robust across volatility estimators, momentum strategies and subsamples. Finally, the ‘echo effect’ in industries is not robust in subsamples as the strategy works only during the most recent subsample.