Market Participation and Share Prices

Share prices are analyzed in an overlapping generations model in which the generational size is random. This models stochastic fluctuations of market participants and can explain noninformational volatility of share prices. There exists a (stochastic) stationary equilibrium, which may be nonunique. In equilibrium, (a) the share price increases and (b) expected utility decreases with the generational size. A decline of this size below a critical level induces a crash: the stock price falls substantially, shares are undervalued, and investors' demand is restricted by illiquidity. Further, the model predicts the empirically observed positive correlation between volume of trade and absolute price changes.     

Chinese firms’ crash risk and CEO media exposure

This study uses panel data from China over the period 2008–2015 to examine the effect of CEO media exposure on crash risk. We show that CEO media coverage in Chinese firms has a wide dispersion and mitigates crash risk at firms. Our study confirms the important role of media to monitor effectively firm behaviours in China.     

Stock market crash of 2008: an empirical study of the deviation of share prices from company fundamentals

The aim of this study is to investigate quantitatively whether share prices deviated from company fundamentals in the stock market crash of 2008. For this purpose, we use a large database containing the balance sheets and share prices of 7796 worldwide companies for the period 2004–2013. We develop a panel regression model using three financial indicators – dividends per share, cash flow per share and book value per share – as explanatory variables for share price. We then estimate individual company fundamentals for each year by removing the time fixed effects from the two-way fixed effects model, which we identified as the best of the panel regression models.

Based on these results, we analyse the market anomaly quantitatively using the divergence rate – the rate of the deviation of share price from a company’s fundamentals. We find that share prices on average were overvalued in the period from 2005 to 2007 and were undervalued significantly in 2008, when the global financial crisis occurred. Share prices were equivalent to the fundamentals on average in the subsequent period. Our empirical results clearly demonstrate that the worldwide stock market fluctuated excessively in the time period before and just after the global financial crisis of 2008.     

检验检疫背景符合性条件风险严重度评价研究——基于证据理论

针对检验检疫背景符合性条件风险严重度综合评价的特点,即多指标、多层次、评价标准模糊、属性复杂等,建立了综合风险严重度评价体系,提出了基于证据理论的动态综合模糊评价方法,并给出了具体的评价步骤：按指标属性将评价指标分为定性和定量两类;对各指标进行量化、一致性和无量纲化处理;从评价体系指标层开始进行动态立体综合评价;逐层合成综合绩效值。     

The role of multivariate skew-Student density in the estimation of stock market crashes

By combining the multivariate skew-Student density with a time-varying correlation GARCH (TVC-GARCH) model, this paper investigates the spread of crashes in the regional stock markets. The regional index series of European, USA, Latin American and Asian markets are modeled jointly, and the maximum likelihood estimates show that a TVC-GARCH model with multivariate skew-Student density outperforms that with multivariate normal density substantially. Depending on the past information set, the conditional 1-day crash probabilities are computed, and the forecast performances of the TVC-GARCH model with both multivariate skew-Student and normal densities are evaluated. In both bilateral and global environments, multivariate skew-Student density has better predictive accuracy than normal density. In global crash probability forecasts, multivariate skew-Student density attains much higher hit rate and Kuipers score than multivariate normal density, thus it can be used to improve early-warning systems.     

Managing customers’ undesirable responses towards hospitality service brands during service failure: The moderating role of other customer perception

This research examines how perceived service failure severity (SFS) in an interactive multi-actor service context may lead to customer retaliation and revisit intention via sequential mediation of dissatisfaction and brand hate. The research also examines how other customer perception, reflected in appearance (OCP-A), similarity (OCP-S) and behaviour (OCP-B), conditions these relationships. In this attempt, the research employs two-experimental studies (Studies 1 & 2) and two self-reported surveys (Studies 3 & 4). Findings from Study 1 establish that service failure leads to retaliation via sequential mediation of dissatisfaction and brand hate. This study also supports that other customer perception can shape the adverse effect of service failure severity on dissatisfaction. Further, in Study 2 it is established that OCP-B is more influential (over OCP-S and OCP-A) in mitigating the adverse effect of SFS on dissatisfaction. Followed by this, Study 3 extends the findings into a different setting, and also confirms the external validity of Studies 1 and 2. Finally, Study 4 incorporates the transactional vs. relational orientation of customers, and the findings elucidate that OCP-B (over OCP-A and OCP-S) dominates in mitigating dissatisfaction for relational customers. However, no such dominance is observed for transactional customers. The findings from the research provide novel insights for managing service failure in hospitality sector.     

社会责任报告语调与股价崩盘风险

以2006—2017年披露社会责任报告的所有A股上市公司为研究对象,实证检验了社会责任报告的语调对股价崩盘风险的影响。实证结果显示,社会责任报告的净正面语调与股价崩盘风险呈显著正相关关系,具体表现为通过正面语调离差策略来隐匿企业的负面信息。进一步分析发现,当企业的信息不对称程度较高,企业自愿披露社会责任报告时,其社会责任报告净正面语调与未来股价崩盘风险呈显著正相关关系,而管理层隐匿坏消息的动机是出于缓解企业的融资约束问题。研究在丰富社会责任信息披露和股价崩盘风险相关领域研究的同时,对上市公司、投资者和监管部门也有重要的启示作用。     

环境管理体系认证能够抑制股价崩盘风险吗？

近年来,随着环境政策日趋严格,环境负面消息累积导致的股价崩盘风险不断提高。文章基于2007-2019年中国沪深两市A股重污染企业的经验数据,探讨了环境管理体系认证对股价崩盘风险的影响。研究发现,环境管理体系认证能够显著抑制股价崩盘风险,且当媒体关注越高、分析师关注越高时,环境管理体系认证对股价崩盘风险的抑制作用更强。进一步探讨影响机制发现,环境管理体系认证主要通过治理机制和信息机制来影响股价崩盘风险,换言之,环境管理体系认证能够通过提高公司环境绩效和公司信息透明度来抑制股价崩盘风险。研究结论揭示了环境管理体系认证具有资本市场有效性,丰富了股价崩盘风险的影响因素研究,对于政府完善环境管理体系认证制度以提高资本市场稳定性、企业优化战略决策以提升企业价值具有重要的借鉴意义。     

Effect of government regulations on the severity of injuries in fisheries

This study analyses the severity of commercial fishing accidents in the Gulf of Mexico using data from the USCG. Estimates from ordered probit models find no statistically significant effect for either the IFQGT program or the Coast Guard Authorization Act of 2010. However, the presence of an NOAA observer on fishing vessels appears to have reduced the severity of injuries during the study period, which can be partially attributed to the success of the USCG vessel safety certification program. Poor weather conditions increase the likelihood of fatality, particularly when a person falls overboard. Information from the interaction effects between poor weather conditions and vessel attributes can be used in designing new commercial fishing vessels to enhance safety.     

监管型小股东与股价崩盘风险——基于投服中心持股行权的经验证据

选取2010—2020年沪深A股上市公司被投服中心持股行权的样本数据,从中小投资者保护的研究视角出发,考察监管型小股东的监督治理效应,实证检验投服中心持股行权对上市公司股价崩盘风险的影响机制。研究结果表明,当上市公司被投服中心持股行权后,股价崩盘风险显著降低,并且在非国有企业中效应更显著;机制检验发现持股行权通过增强会计稳健性与提升信息披露质量来降低股价崩盘风险;异质性分析考察了内外部监督治理水平差异下持股行权的治理效应,当内部治理效率较低和外部监督不足时,持股行权的影响更为显著,一定程度上发挥了治理替代效应;拓展性分析检验了企业被多次行权后的增量效果以及持股行权在行业间的溢出效应。研究为证券监管贯彻落实“创新监管方式、防范重大风险”的理念提供了理论支持,对提升上市公司质量与完善投资者保护具有重要意义。