经济转型期的产业断层危机

产业断层危机不同于一般经济周期,它产生于产业结构升级转换中的结构失衡,表现为中长期的结构错落和增长速度迟缓。根据引发的因素可以分为“康氏周期拐点型”、“泡沫经济引致型”、“货币危机引致型”和“产业升级转换型”等类型,中国目前正处于工业化中期阶段,产业结构正面临着向新兴技术和新兴产业转型阶段,到2005年前后,我国将面临产业结构大规模升级,届时由于现阶段的资源瓶颈、产业回补、出口压力、技术瓶颈、产业虚高度化和尤格拉周期因素,可能会发生较大的产业断层危机。     

20世纪90年代拉美国家财政改革的经验与教训

20世纪90年代拉美国家的财政失衡有所缓解,但是债务负担依然沉重,尤其"顺周期"的财政政策导致宏观经济更加不稳定,削弱了抵御外部冲击的能力.在"华盛顿共识"的影响下,拉美国家主要实施了强化财政纪律、调整公共支出结构、大幅度削减关税以及国有企业私有化等方面的财政改革,试图通过中短期的财政调整来解决长期存在的发展依赖外资和收入分配不公等诸多结构性矛盾,然而这种改革方式的有效性非常有限,其财政改革的经验教训可为我国财政改革提供有益的启示和借鉴.     

Financial crisis and persistence: evidence from sticky expectations consumption growth model

We estimate the degree of stickiness in aggregate consumption growth for the U.S. considering the effects of the Great Recession. The behavior of stickiness estimate in the crisis is somewhat as the U-shaped pattern. Our findings imply that during the crisis consumers’ attentiveness to aggregate information has slightly increased, thereby reducing the persistence of aggregate consumption growth. However, the reduction in persistence is transitory. Since 1980, the U.S. faced five recessions and in most of them the degree of stickiness declined, albeit temporarily.     

Introduction to “Economic and Financial Governance in the European Union after a decade of Economic and Political Crises.”

ABSTRACT

This paper offers the Introduction to the Special Issue “Economic and Financial Governance in the European Union after a decade of Economic and Political Crises.” We introduce the five papers. We distill three important lessons they offer for EU integration.     

城市危机管理模式新探

城市是各种危机最频发的地区,我国城市的危机管理形势非常严峻.在充分研究城市公共危机的表现形式和基本特点的基础上,积极探讨城市危机管理模式的转换,从法律体系、中枢指挥系统、信息管理系统、预警系统、社会联动机制等方面进行机制创新.     

我国软预算约束的治理:理论与政策

软预算约束对我国经济的危害甚大,探讨我国预算软约束的治理意义重大.本文认为,应当从下述四个方面来治理我国经济中普遍存在的软预算约束问题:(1)推进国有银企的市场化改革,消除政府干预;(2)建立分散化的银行体系,加强对银行体系的有效监控;(3)实行财政分权,加强地区经济之间的竞争;(4)规范政府经济行为,严格财政金融纪律.     

环境危机--一个现实问题的实质探究

日趋严重的环境问题已成了制约我国经济、社会可持续发展的极大障碍，要实现全面建设小康社会的目标，就必须正视环境危机，探询问题的实质，以便寻找到解决问题的良策。     

Contagion Effects from the 1994 Mexican Peso Crisis: Evidence from Chilean Stocks

The contagion, or informational spillover, effects of the 1994 peso crisis from the Mexican market to the Chilean market, and to the Chilean American Depository Receipts (ADRs) trading in the U.S., are examined. Significant excess returns are observed for Chilean stocks for the event dates of the Mexican Peso crisis, providing evidence of contagion effects. Significant excess returns on these Chilean ADRs are also observed for each of the five event dates associated with the Peso crisis, suggesting that the contagion effects spilled over to the ADRs. A multiple regression model shows that the spillover contagion effects were very efficiently transmitted from the Mexican market to the Chilean market to the Chilean ADRs. Multifactor regressions show that the most significant influence on the pricing of Chilean ADRs is the raw Chilean Index, rather than the Chilean Index expressed in U.S. dollars.     

企业应对突发事件的措施研究

企业在发展过程中不可避免要遭遇一些突发事件，这些突发事件可能会给企业带来相当的损失，也可能使企业遭受毁灭性的打击。文章从事前、事中和事后三个方面，研究了企业针对突发事件可以采取的一些对策。     

试论我国财税法律体系的完善

经济的和谐发展呼吁完善的财税法律体系。目前,我国传统财税法律体系已经不能适应和谐发展的新要求,以科学发展观为指导,创新财税法学研究方法和研究范式,构建新的财税法律体系和拓展财税法学的理论空间,已经成为财税理论研讨中的新趋势。因此,宜从我国财政危机的法律原因入手,分析产生这些问题的法治根源,并提出创新财税法治观念、构建新的财税法律体系的思路。