What does a term structure model imply about very long-term interest rates?

We address two empirical issues related to the long end of the yield curve based on euro swap rates. First, for maturities longer than 20 years we find evidence for an ‘excess’ downward slope that cannot be explained by convexity. Second, volatility at the very long end of the yield curve is larger than predicted by no-arbitrage models. We construct a model-based arbitrage-free extrapolation of the yield-curve and compare it to the regulatory discount curve. Because of near-zero mean reversion, there is no convergence towards an ‘ultimate forward rate’ and convexity effects cause the arbitrage-free extrapolations to have slightly downward sloping curves. The low level of mean-reversion also implies that the volatility of long-term rates does not decline relative to the 20-year volatility. Therefore, we conclude that the mean-reversion and resulting smoothing adopted by the regulatory curve is much too strong.     

云龙示范区商贸流通体系建设研究

云龙示范区是长株潭城市群商贸流通最活跃的经济区域之一,承担着承接区域功能疏解、服务区域经济发展、激发沉淀经济资源等功能。通过对云龙示范区商贸流通业发展的广泛调研,分析了云龙示范区发展商贸流通的基础、前景和路径选择,指出了云龙示范区商贸流通体系建设重在突破主导产业和区域发展的限制,大力推进街区商贸和商贸综合体建设,构建商贸流通产业新体系。     

Impact of abusive supervision on deviant work behavior: The role of Islamic work ethic

In this article, we examined the relationship between abusive supervision and deviant workplace behavior and the moderating role of an Islamic Work Ethic. Three hundred and thirty‐six employees in different organizations (specializing in software development, medicine, law enforcement, telecommunication, pharmaceutics, and banking) across Pakistan completed our questionnaire. The results revealed that abusive supervision was positively related to deviant workplace behavior. Moreover, the moderation of an Islamic Work Ethic on the relationship between abusive supervision and deviant work behavior was confirmed. The study contributed in many ways. It expanded literature by revealing a weaker relationship between abusive supervision and deviant behavior when Islamic Work Ethic (IWE) was high. It also tested the conservation of resources theory by providing a plausible reasoning of the role of IWE in employee motivation. By integrating IWE as a resource in the workplace, practitioners would learn that the proper use of resources would produce satisfied workers who would not indulge in deviant workplace behaviors.     

Who do we blame for abusive supervision?

Research has looked extensively at one side of abusive supervision (that is employee perceptions) and subsequently linked this phenomenon to supervisors' actual behaviour. We address this research gap by investigating the other side—employee characteristics as a factor related to the perception of abusive supervision (AS). Data collected from 443 employees within the Pakistani telecommunications industry revealed that employees' intimidation behaviours was positively related to their perceptions of AS, mediated by emotional exhaustion. In addition, recognition (from top management) was found to moderate the indirect effects of intimidation on AS via emotional exhaustion. Our findings challenge the assumption that supervisors are to blame for exhibiting abusive behaviour and identify a new, underlying factor related to AS.     

企业业务接待活动中存在的问题、原因分析及对策探讨

企业作为市场经济主体,在业务招待范畴中包含了公务接待和商务接待活动。改革实践中,由于旧有观念的冲突、制度刚性约束不强等原因,接待费用失控、顶风违纪等行为在企业内部时有发生。论文总结了企业接待中容易出现的问题,并从客观与主观两方面对产生问题的原因进行分析,提出解决办法,对企业强化“三公经费”管理,落实中央八项规定精神具有一定的借鉴作用。     

日本国家公园入选相关特征研究

日本国家公园至今有百年的发展历史，形成了成熟的国家公园建设理念，具体体现在以下2个方面：1)日本国家公园属于IUCN(自然保护区管理分类)中的第Ⅱ类国家公园和第Ⅴ类地景/海景保护区；2)在选入国家公园的适宜性与可行性标准方面，日本对国家公园分为陆域和海域2种类型，并分别制定选定标准。从日本国家公园的基本特征出发，揭示其入选标准的实践现状，为现阶段中国国家公园建设提供探索和思路。     

Agricultural economic zones in Thailand

The Thai government introduced agricultural economic zones (AEZs) to mitigate risks for farmers from variations in crop price stability and increase production productivity, but the zone policy contradicts other policies, resulting in its limited success. This paper identifies the factors affecting farmland owners’ decisions to allocate farmland to different crops in order to analyse the root cause of the failure of the AEZs programme in Thailand. The study area was Khon Kaen province, where a total of 745 farmland parcels were selected as samples for the research. The optimisation method based on duality production theory and simultaneous Tobit estimation was used for this study. The study identified the factors not covered by the government when AEZs were established, including crop prices, input prices and property right. The findings indicate that farmers do not consider physical and environmental characteristics of their parcel as a top priority when making a decision to allocate their farmland use. Instead, their top priorities are economic factors. Therefore, the government should reconsider the AEZs programme in order to prevent further loss of government budget spending on the programme. By recognising the root cause of the failure of the AEZs, the government should be able to better manage their agricultural policies more appropriately.     

我国跨境电商通关监管生态系统演化创新的动力机制

基于商业生态系统在互联网背景下的平台化原理,可解释我国跨境电商通关监管系统演化和监管模式创新的动态过程与动力机制。研究发现,跨境电商监管生态系统结构经历了中心-辐射型双边监管系统、规则网络型多边监管系统、共生型复杂自组织监管系统的演化过程,推动了不同阶段的监管模式创新。系统结构优化和系统能力提升是通关监管生态系统创新与升级的关键,平台正确的战略选择和不断叠加的外部网络效应共同推动了监管系统升级和监管模式创新。对比现状可知,跨境电商监管模式创新过程中仍存在数据的精确统计、监管的跨区域协同、通关流程中的瓶颈环节、知识产权监管和产品质量追溯等难题。据此,应加快构建规范化、法治化、便利化的新型监管体系,依托大数据分析等新兴技术,使通关监管"前推后移",并通过"微创新"不断优化通关监管流程。     

新时期水库移民监督检查工作实践与探索

为积极践行新时期"水利工程补短板、水利行业强监管"的水利改革发展总基调,围绕"强化工作指导、实施严格监管"的水库移民工作新思路,水利部积极组织开展了新形势下的水库移民监督检查工作。结合2019年水库移民稽察审计工作实践,对工作组织、工作思路、工作重点、工作方式等方面的创新进行了总结,以期为今后水库移民监督检查工作的高效规范开展提供借鉴。     

股市中会计信息披露与监管的博弈研究

我国股市在快速发展之后,现已具有一定规模,但仍处在稚嫩期,存在过度投机的现象。这其中虚假信息的披露増加了股票市场的动荡。论文运用博弈经济学理论的知识,通过建立上市公司会计信息披露质量与政府监管的混合模型,致力于找到使得上市公司提供高质量会计信息披露的有效方法。