Fighting against the odds

The fight for power is not only over immediate rents, but also over advantageous positions in future power struggles. When incumbency yields an extra fighting edge, current struggles involve high stakes as a victory today may guarantee the victory also tomorrow. Such an incumbency edge may stem from the control of the army, the police and other instruments reserved for the government. The conclusions drawn from static conflict models are turned on their head when the fight is also over the incumbency edge. A sharper incumbency edge increases the implicit prizes of winning. The fighting intensity may therefore rise when the strength of each side becomes more unequal. Unbalanced fights can last long and become particularly severe. This is in contrast to the standard result that equal strengths give the most intense fighting. Received: June 2004, Accepted: December 2004, We want to thank the editor and a referee.     

Civil war, stock return, and intellectual capital disclosure in Sri Lanka

This study examines the effect of current-period intellectual capital disclosure on earnings and current annual stock return during a civil-war period. Using the top 30 firms by market capitalization listed on Colombo Stock Exchange over six years (from 1998 to 2003), this study finds that firms do not include the current-period intellectual capital disclosure in the current stock return, and the increase in the current-period intellectual capital disclosure activity has no influence on earnings included in the current stock return. Future accounting-based earnings, if stated in the current period, by contrast are included in the current stock return. The findings provide insights into the intellectual capital disclosure practice and its influence on stock return in a civil-war environment.     

Military expenditure in post-conflict societies

Post-conflict situations face a high risk of reversion to conflict. We investigate the effect of military expenditure by the government during the first decade post-conflict on the risk of reversion. We contrast two theories as to the likely effects. In one, military spending deters conflict by reducing the prospects of rebel success. In the other it acts as a signal to the rebels of government intentions. In the signalling model, low military spending signals that the government intends to adhere to the terms of the peace settlement and so reduces the risk of renewed rebellion. We investigate the effects of post-conflict military spending on the risk of conflict, using our existing models of military expenditure and of conflict risk. We find that, consistent with the signalling model, high military spending post-conflict significantly increases the risk of renewed conflict. This effect of military spending is distinctive to post-conflict period, and becomes progressively more pronounced over the decade. Received: April 2004, Accepted: December 2004, JEL Classification: H56, F35, O10     

‘World war three’: A historical mirage?

Public belief in a major, convulsive military clash between East and West, marked by an apocalyptic nuclear exchange, is now widespread. It may be argued that such a conflict is scarcely in prospect, and that the notion of such a Third World War has little contemporary strategic value, either as a real prospect or a salutary myth. This article examines the strong contemporary reasons for the prominence of this image, and traces its fundamental roots in deceptive historical precedent.     

战争报道中的两面信息

战争报道须应对矛盾性信息：有关敌方及其行动或意图的一些好消息,对己方及其行动和意图的一些批评.具有战争宣传特点的战争报道也不能忽略这一信息,而是使用两面信息以抵御之.战争宣传融合矛盾性信息可以加强对读者的效果：表明敌方最终是＂坏的＂,己方是＂好的＂,报道看起来更像平衡的报道,感觉不到宣传的意味.     

从网络文学演变看女性话语权

女性话语,是针对于源远流长的传统男权话语的反抗,是随着西方女性主义运动的深入发展,才提出的学术术语。它具有鲜明的时代性,彰显了女性与日俱增的自我意识。随着互联网技术的蓬勃发展,网络文学这一新兴的文学表现形式的出现,以它特有的开放性、匿名性、自发性,成为21世纪的女性拓展自我言说的舞台。     

Mercantilism: a materialist approach

ABSTRACT

Historians and economists have shown renewed interest in mercantilism over the last couple of years. From this interest, a dispute has arisen about whether mercantilism should be seen as an incoherent economic thought or if it is possible to ‘reconstruct’ its basic principles. In line with this latter attempt, this paper is intended to provide a materialist explanation for varying degrees of belief in shared mercantilist assumptions. My hypothesis is that belief in mercantilist assumptions is significantly dependent upon how economic and security issues materially interact in a given time and space, with uncertainty and insecurity profoundly favouring mercantilist dispositions in economic thought. To analyse this hypothesis, the paper sets the first steps for relating the credibility of mercantilism with changes in British economic and military history from the sixteenth to the nineteenth century. Section 3 presents ideas to further investigate this hypothesis. Section 4 concludes the paper.     

How beer created Belgium (and the Netherlands): the contribution of beer taxes to war finance during the Dutch Revolt

ABSTRACT

The present-day border between Belgium and the Netherlands can be traced back to the separation of the Low Countries after the Dutch Revolt (1566–1648) against Spanish rule. The capacity to finance the escalating cost of war determined the outcome of this conflict. As Spain struggled to provide regular pay to its troops, its war efforts were often plagued by mutiny. In contrast, the Dutch Republic managed to raise large sums for its war budgets. As we show in this article, excise taxes on beer consumption were one of the largest income sources in Holland, the leading province of the Dutch Republic. Over the course of the Revolt, Dutch beer taxes brought in the equivalent of 29% of Spanish tax revenues on silver from America. Beer taxes thus played a crucial role in financing the Dutch Revolt which led to the separation of the Low Countries and, eventually, the creation of Belgium.