债务限额、税收自主权与地方政府隐性债务风险

债务限额管理对隐性债务风险的影响是目前相关研究中的薄弱环节。本文基于全国30个省份2010—2018年的面板数据,运用广义双重差分模型进行了实证研究。研究发现,债务限额没有起到约束隐性债务增长的作用,且债务限额空间减少会加剧隐性债务风险扩张。这一效应在中西部地区尤为明显,而提高税收自主权会减弱债务限额的不利影响。以地方官员集体决策制度（省级党委常委会）衡量的地区异质性分析发现,债务限额对地方隐性债务风险的不利影响在中央下派常委比例高的地区更小。进一步对债务限额进行细分研究发现,地方债置换和新增债券发行对隐性债务风险有不同影响。本文的政策含义是治理地方隐性债务风险需要将债务限额制度、官员行为、财税体制改革结合起来,标本兼治,才能真正实现隐性债务风险化解目标。     

我国财政支出规模变化的分析及其合理控制

文章对我国改革开放以来财政支出规模的变化趋势进行了实证分析,揭示了我国财政支出规模下降的背后仍然是政府实际支配资源规模的扩大,对这种变化趋势的合理性进行了分析判断,剖析了我国“财政之谜”(财政支出规模下降而企业负担重)的实质,给出了我国适度财政支出规模的基本要求及界定标准,提出合理控制我国财政支出规模的基本思路就是根据公共财政的内在要求,系统改造现行财政支出制度安排,构建符合公共财政要求的公共财政支出制度框架。     

Informal Caregiving and the Retirement Decision

The probability of providing informal care grows with one's own age. While labor market effects due to caregiving are moderate, they could be concentrated in the years close to retirement. Therefore, I investigate whether care in the previous year leads to retirement in the year after by using German Socio‐Economic Panel data from 2001 to 2009 and discrete‐time hazard models. The effect of care on the retirement decision is indeed much higher than its effect on the labor or working hours of middle‐aged individuals. Women are affected to a larger extent but the retirement decision of men also reacts to their caregiving obligations.     

后金融危机时代股票超额收益率影响因素的探索

运用判别分析法和决策树模型对上证180的成分股是否可以获得超额收益率及其影响因素进行了分析,并将两种方法的分析结果进行了对比。结果表明：两种方法都可以对上市公司是否可以获得超额收益进行分辨,并且可以找出影响因素。但是从两种模型的结果来看,决策树模型要明显优于判别分析法。从我们的分析样本来看,对企业是否可以获得超额收益率的影响因素主要有：市盈率、市净率、息税折旧摊销前利润/营业总收入等。在实际中,通过这两种方法,投资者可以寻找出那些具有超额收益率的股票进行投资,从而使得自身的投资结果优于大盘。     

ExpertLens: A system for eliciting opinions from a large pool of non-collocated experts with diverse knowledge

The complexity of policy decision-making raises the need to elicit opinions from large and heterogeneous groups of stakeholders with broad and diverse sets of expertise. Existing options for elicitation include small face-to-face panels of experts by using the Nominal Group Technique (NGT), large Delphi panels whose members do not interact with each other face-to-face, and crowdsourcing, which involves an open call for input issued to a large community of people. In an attempt to close the gap between the practical needs of policy makers and the methodological challenges associated with eliciting opinions of large, diverse, and distributed groups, we have developed a new online elicitation system and methodology called ExpertLens. By optimizing the direct interactions of NGT with the larger number of Delphi participants and the wisdom of “selected crowds,” our approach is designed to save on the costs associated with traditional expert panels, while increasing accuracy in elicitation by reducing the potential for group process losses that can occur in large, diverse, and non-collocated panels whose members interact via asynchronous online discussion boards. The ExpertLens approach is iterative, does not require participants to develop consensus, and determines what the group “thinks” by statistically analyzing data collected in all rounds of the elicitation. This paper describes the ExpertLens system and methodology, briefly discusses recent ExpertLens trials, provides conceptual arguments for why it is an appropriate model for eliciting expert opinions, illustrates its main components and analytics by using an infrastructure investment example, and discusses a research agenda for testing the underlying tenets of the ExpertLens approach.     

FDI对中国国内投资影响的实证分析

在开放条件下,FDI会对东道国国内投资产生强有力的影响,这种影响体现在FDI对东道国国内投资产生挤出效应或者挤入效应。本文对1987—2001年FDI对中国国内投资的影响进行了检验,结果表明:在最近的15年间,FDI对国内投资总体上存在显著的挤入效应;对大多数省份的投资也存在挤入效应,但在东部沿海省份挤出效应和中性效应则占一定的主导地位;FDI对不同地区投资的影响程度也存在明显的差异,呈现出由东向西渐次减弱的状态。     

实物期权在R＆D投资决策中的应用研究

对实物期权理论发展进行简单回顾后,针对实物期权方法在R＆D投资决策中的应用研究,结合国内外研究成果,综述了R＆D投资决策的实物期权一般理论、实物期权模型和实物期权扩展研究。得出目前中国在该领域无论是理论还是应用上都与国外存在较大差距,开展实物期权研究是非常必要的结论。     

农业标准化生产经营微观决策分析

基于农业标准化生产经营的特点,构建了农业标准化生产经营微观决策模型。在农业标准化生产经营决策过程中,影响决策的主要因素有物质资本、人力资本、土地规模、标准化农产品的价格和公共支持。因此,促进农业标准化生产经营必须扩大规模,加大扶持力度,降低成本,提高预期收益。     

On choosing which game to play when ignorant of the rules

This paper suggests a theory of choice among strategic situations when the rules of play are not properly specified. We take the view that a “strategic situation” is adequately described by a TU game since it specifies what is feasible for each coalition but is silent on the procedures that are used to allocate the surplus. We model the choice problem facing a decision maker (DM) as having to choose from finitely many “actions”. The known “consequence” of the ith action is a coalition from game f _i over a fixed set of players \(N_i\cup\{d\}\) (where d stands for the DM). Axioms are imposed on her choice as the list of consequences (f ₁,..., f _m ) from the m actions varies. We characterize choice rules that are based on marginal contributions of the DM in general and on the Shapley Value in particular.     

试析委托—代理关系下房地产市场政策选择

委托—代理关系下,由于地方政府与中央政府在目标和利益上有时不一致,地方政府会采取能够使自身利益最大化的行动,从而使政策目标发生扭曲。＂中央—地方双向纠错机制＂意在唤醒基于公共精神的行政治理,注重公共利益。