我国收入分配对消费需求的影响

现阶段我国收入分配差距不断扩大,具体表现在城乡之间、地区之间以及劳资之间。通过对社会总消费函数和人均消费函数进行非线性回归分析可以发现,社会总消费函数的边际消费倾向大大低于人均消费函数的边际消费倾向。收入分配差距造成了社会总消费函数的边际消费倾向对人均消费函数的边际消费倾向的大幅偏离。因此,要提高整个社会的边际消费倾向,必须努力缩小我国的收入分配差距,改善地区之间收入分配状况,加强收入再分配的调节作用。     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

Food fraud: economic insights into the dark side of incentives

In this review, we contextualise the articles in this special issue, relating them to existing food fraud research, and identify food fraud research trends, challenges and priorities for the near term. We accomplish these aims through a comprehensive review of research by food scientists, economists, other social scientists, legal experts, government research groups and international trade organisations. Existing food fraud research is heavily weighted towards food science, packaging and labelling, and legal areas of knowledge discovery. Moving forward, research is needed pertaining to general economic welfare outcomes from food fraud incidences, economic incentives to deter frauds, economic spillovers from fraud incidences to other food products and markets (domestic and international) and further delineation of the effect of different types of food fraud on consumer and producer welfare. The articles in this special issue make significant contributions to understanding of the role of food fraud in consumer decisions, measuring consumer welfare losses from fraud, food fraud spillover effects to other markets and new frameworks for fraud analysis.     

水源地突发水污染政府应急预留水量需求预测

近年来,随着工业化和产业化的快速发展,水源地突发水污染事件频发。为应对紧急情况下的水资源非常规需求,保障经济社会稳定发展,政府需要安排一部分应急预留水量。如何合理预测政府应急预留水量的规模是一个值得探讨的课题。提出了一种基于案例推理技术的政府应急预留水量需求预测方法,具体思路是:借助于案例库,利用主成分分析法从众多影响水源地突发水污染事件的因素中提取出两两不相关的因子,以此作为案例的特征属性,基于加权曼哈顿距离测算相似度,依此得到匹配案例,进而测算政府应急预留水量。以太湖流域常州地区水源地为例,进行政府预留水量需求量的预测与分析。该方法可以为政府应急预留水量的配置、储备等提供相关理论知识。     

农民专业合作社对农地经营权抵押贷款潜在 需求及影响因素分析

研究目的:通过对江苏省徐州、淮安、泰州、南京4市191个非试点村340份农民专业合作社的有效问卷调查的分析,检验了农民专业合作社对农地经营权抵押贷款的潜在需求及影响因素。研究方法:文献调查法,Logit回归模型。研究结果:分析了4个地区的农民专业合作社对农村土地经营权抵押贷款的潜在需求与关键影响因素。研究结论:(1)农民专业合作社对农地经营权抵押贷款存在强烈需求;(2)银行较少为农民专业合作社提供针对性的金融性产品,享受农业政策性保险与贴息贷款农民专业合作社比例较低;(3)这种潜在需求受到年龄、受教育水平、固定资产规模、年贷款申请次数、贷款满足率、银行是否提供针对性金融产品、是否享有政策性农业保险、是否享有贴息贷款以及地区等因素的不同程度影响。     

初级阶段的主要矛盾与腐败现象分析

以往对社会主义初级阶段主要矛盾的认识,偏重于生产满足不了人们日益增长物质化生活需要的矛盾性认识,使人们思想上易产生误区,既不顾及现实生产力发展水平,盲目追求物质生活满足,致使少数人导致腐败。主要矛盾贯穿于过渡时期,但在各个历史阶段上生活需要存在着统一性与平衡性,根据这个理论,人们物质生活的质量,不能超越现实生活发展水平,这样才能保证主要矛盾的解决。     

The impact of conservation tillage on maize yield and input demand: the case of smallholder farmers in north‐west Ethiopia

This study analyses the economics of conservation tillage (CT) with respect to its effect on maize yield and chemical fertiliser, herbicide, and female and male labour demand. We estimate production and input demand functions using seemingly unrelated regressions on plot‐level cross‐sectional farm household data collected in the north‐west of Ethiopia. A two‐step control function is applied to address potential endogeneity bias due to the inclusion of the CT adoption decision as an explanatory variable. Our results show that CT increases maize yield and chemical fertiliser demand. Additionally, the results show that the adoption of CT reduces female and male labour required for crop production. However, this is achieved through the increased use of herbicides, which might have an undesirable health and environmental effects.     

Load profiles and flexibility in operation of washing machines and dishwashers in Europe

While the energy generation system is changing towards the use of more renewable energies, the problem of how to deal with fluctuating energy supply is increasing. Smart appliances in households are often referenced as one possible solution, as their operation may be shifted in time and, thus, used to balance an unstable energy supply. The potential of such appliances has been studied to date mainly in pilot installations with a very limited number of participants or by making assumptions on what might be possible. With this work, a semi‐representative approach for 12 European countries was used to assess actual consumer habits for the use of washing machines and dishwashers which then could be used to calculate average load profiles for those appliances depending on the time of the day. Using these profiles, it is strait forward to calculate how much load may be shifted by those appliances in a demand response application. This allows aggregators or energy utilities to assign clear financial benefits to the shifting potential of those appliances. Consumers use the shifting of appliance operation already today for various reasons. Investigating these reasons allows to learn already a lot about the flexibility of consumers.     

Seasonal concentration of tourism demand: Decomposition analysis and marketing implications

This paper analyzes seasonality in the United Kingdom, specifically the English regions in relation to tourists' place of origin and main travel motivation. The method used is a decomposition of the Gini index, which provides relative marginal effects that facilitate the identification of market segments open to counter-seasonal marketing efforts. This method has been combined with a graphical multivariate technique (biplot), which groups segments according to their seasonality characteristics. Seasonal patterns associated with particular segments differ significantly when studied on a disaggregated basis. Therefore, an adequate level of disaggregation is essential in the design of counter-seasonal strategies. Although this study focuses on British destinations, this methodology could be used as a control and monitoring measure in the regional analysis of any destination, facilitating regular adjustment of regional tourism marketing campaigns to minimize seasonality effects, specifically by targeting the types of tourists less prone to seasonality.     

Pseudo panel data estimation technique and rational addiction model: an analysis of cigarette,alcohol and coffee demands

We use a pseudo‐panel data approach to analyze the relationship between the consumptions of cigarettes, alcohol, and coffee in a rational addiction framework. We find that while cigarette and coffee demands fit well with the rational addiction model, alcohol demand conforms to a model with inventory effects. The results suggest that alcohol consumption increases the marginal utility derived from consumption of cigarettes. Increasing alcohol prices would decrease not only the consumption of alcohol, but also the consumption of cigarettes. On the other hand, increasing cigarette prices do not have the same effect on consumption of alcohol. The cross‐price elasticity of coffee with respect to cigarette price is positive and significant which suggests that coffee substitutes for cigarettes when cigarette prices increase. The cross‐price elasticity of alcohol with respect to coffee price is found to be negative and significant. On the other hand, Morishima elasticities of substitution indicate that cigarette, alcohol and coffee substitute each other along the indifference curve when relative prices change.