外部需求冲击对中国出口的影响

中国经济增长的特殊模式使得其容易受到外部经济表现的影响,其中外需冲击是重要的渠道。实证结果表明,中国出口一方面为外部需求所拉动,另一方面其竞争力体现为成本优势。在前期出口成本上升和目前中国的主要出口市场相继进入衰退的情况下,为稳定出口增长,中国应在短期适度回调出口退税率和稳定人民币升值幅度,在长期致力于技术进步。     

A two-sector Kaleckian model of growth and distribution with endogenous productivity dynamics

This study extends a two-sector Kaleckian model of output growth and income distribution by incorporating endogenous labour productivity growth. The model is composed of investment goods and consumption goods production sectors. The impact of a change in wage and profit shares on capacity utilisation and output growth rates at the sectoral and aggregate levels are identified. The study reveals short-run cyclical capacity utilisation rates and productivity growth dynamics. Even if the short-run steady state is stable, the capital accumulation rate in the consumption goods sector must decrease more than that in the investment sector for long-run stability. When simultaneous rises in profit shares in both the sectors affect long-run aggregate economic growth differently at a steady state, the distributional interests between the same class in different sectors may hamper the long-run economic growth. A policy message is that the effect of income distribution on industrial output growth is not always beneficial. These phenomena are specific to two-sector models and cannot be observed when using conventional aggregate growth models.     

住房公积金导致了不平等吗——来自中国家庭金融调查的证据

住房公积金制度作为一项政策性住房金融制度,能够缓解家庭购房金融约束、稳定住房金融市场,成为实现"房住不炒"的重要政策工具。本文以2015年实施的住房公积金信贷宽松政策作为外生冲击,从财富效应的角度研究了住房公积金制度对不同家庭购房行为的影响。利用双重差分的实证研究方法,本文发现目前住房公积金主要促进了缴存家庭的多套房需求,加大了缴存家庭与非缴存家庭的住房财富差距。住房信贷政策的针对性与多样性急需提升。     

Cryptocurrencies and Cagan’s model of hyperinflation

The drivers of the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum are studied within a framework based on Cagan’s model of hyperinflation. In the model, the prices of the cryptocurrencies are driven by stochastic adoption and velocity shocks as well as endogenous expectations of future prices. The model is estimated with data for prices, transaction volumes, and money supplies. A majority of price fluctuations in both currencies can be attributed to shocks in adoption, velocity shocks are much less important. The money demand sensitivity to expected price changes is estimated to be larger for Bitcoin than for Ethereum, and both have higher sensitivity than fiat currencies during episodes of hyperinflation.     

马克思关于供求决定价格规律的假意识性质的交叉科学诠释

新古典经济学认为,价格由供求决定是达到资源最优配置的必要条件。可是,从交叉科学的观点看,新古典经济学的资源配置的优化性是有限的,因为在不利的工资-私人利润比率条件下,最广大人民群众的消费组合的优化性没有什么意义。而从数学的观点看,所谓供求决定价格是一个伪命题,供求均衡的条件最多不过是规定了一个对应关系,它无法决定价格;价格是由其他变量决定的。对于处于转型期的国家而言,价格是首先由社会根本制度决定的。社会根本制度是因,而价格水平是果。由此,我们论证了马克思在100多年前提出的供求决定价格规律假意识性质理论命题的科学性。     

中国钢铁长期需求:影响因素与政策选择

近年来,我国钢铁工业得到了长足的发展。但随着国内外市场供求关系变化,钢铁工业供求结构不相适应的矛盾日益显现。钢铁工业要实现可持续发展,必须重视对市场长期需求规律的研究,将数量增长和产品结构调整相结合。本文利用协整方程对市场经济条件下经济增长等因素对我国钢铁工业推动作用进行动态分析,探讨钢铁市场的长期需求规律,对于当前钢铁产业政策发展导向、政策选择等提出建议。     

人民币升值及我国的应对措施

人民币升值已经是我国无法回避的问题。总体来看,在现阶段对于我国宏观经济均衡目标而言,人民币升值比不升值对我国经济更有利。但人民币升值的速度取决于我国企业对人民币升值的承受能力、我国扩大内需的能力、我国政府掌控人民币汇率的能力以及热钱流入的速度和资产价格泡沫的大小等。其中,扩大内需是最根本的决定因素。本文提出了在短期内扩大内需以应对人民币升值的两个主要措施,即放松计划生育政策和进行大规模生态开发。     

工作要求与创新工作行为关系的研究

员工创新工作行为是员工有效完成工作任务和目标,达到组织既定工作标准的有效途径,对组织的生存与发展具有重要作用。本文基于工作要求一工作控制模型与社会交换理论,探讨在中国情号下,工作要求、员工感知的组织支持与创新工作行为的关系。通过296个有效样本,研究结果表明：工作要求与创新工作行为显著正相关;员工感知的组织支持对工作要求与创新工作行为具有正向调节作用,在工作要求压力下,相对于感知到较低组织支持的员工,感知到较高组织支持的员工更容易产生创新工作行为,并基于中国本土文化的角度分析其内在原因。研究告诉企业领导者,提高工作要求可以提高员工创新工作行为,同时要提高员工对组织支持的感知,这样才可能使员工在面临高强度的工作要求时,更积极主动地开展创新工作行为,提高工作效率和工作绩效。     

数字时代企业环境审计模式创新——基于环保政策响应机制的研究

企业规避环保责任的机会主义行为导致政府环保政策成效不显著。基于利益相关者理论构建环保政策利益相关者模型,并从环保权力、责任和信息三个角度分析企业的环保政策响应机制。研究发现：由于消费者缺位以及信息不对称等因素的影响,企业的环保政策响应水平较弱。政府应将环保政策施加于消费者,通过消费者来约束企业的行为;审计主体应当转变现有的审计模式,运用数字技术,与消费者合作共同完成审计监督的工作。基于此,提出一种基于消费者需求引导的综合环保政策及新型企业环境审计模式,建议政府应重视数字技术对产业的改造升级,充分考虑消费者的因素来制定环保政策并加大对企业污染数据实时监控的普及。     

Relationship between foreign capital flows,domestic investment and savings in the SADC region

The importance of foreign capital in the domestic economy cannot be underestimated as it bridges the gap between domestic capital demand and supply. Given this background the paper studies the relationship between the different types of foreign capital flows in the Southern Africa Development Region (SADC) region – foreign direct investment (FDI), remittances, cross border bank flows (CBF), overseas development assistance (ODA) – and domestic savings and investment, employing the panel cointegration test and the dynamic ordinary least squares method (DOLS). The empirical results reveal that there is a strong positive relationship between domestic investment and domestic savings, FDI and remittances. These findings indicate that FDI remittances help in overcoming the limits on the domestic capital formation in the SADC region through permitting a rate of investment which is in excess of that which can be generated by domestic savings. Important policy implications on attracting foreign capital flows are discussed in the paper.