Tests for the Role of Risk Aversion on Input Use

For risk-averting agents, risks alter production decisions while the existence of institutions to insure against adverse states of nature will likely restore decisions toward levels under risk neutrality. In this article, conditions are identified on a stochastic technology to test   H^rn _0,≤  : that risk averters choose smaller input levels than risk neutral agents, and   H^ra _0,≤  : that an increase in risk aversion reduces input use. A robust statistical method to test for dominance is adapted to stochastic production relations. It is found that   H^rn _0,≤  is likely true for nitrogen application on Iowa corn. Weaker evidence is found in favor of   H^ra _0,≤  .     

Convergence of Real Capital Market Interest Rates—Evidence from Inflation Indexed Bonds

This paper investigates the convergence of long‐term ex ante real interest rates (RIRs) obtained from Canadian, French, UK, and U.S. inflation indexed government bonds. In contrast to previous research, our evidence suggests full convergence in the long run and, hence, capital market integration. For the same sample period, global convergence is rejected for RIRs measured in conventional terms. From these results, we conclude that previous tests of the long‐run real interest rate parity might have suffered from weak measurement of real capital market interest rates.     

ON THE “PRO‐POORNESS” OF GROWTH IN A MULTIDIMENSIONAL CONTEXT

This paper represents a first attempt to bring together the issues of multidimensional poverty and growth “pro‐poorness” assessments. More specifically, we suggest the use of sequential dominance procedures to test the “pro‐poorness” of observed growth spells when poverty is measured on the basis of income and another discrete well‐being attribute. Sequential procedures are also used to obtain graphical tools that are consistent with the spirit of Ravallion and Chen's growth incidence curve and Son's poverty growth curve. Contrary to traditional unidimensional tests, our method makes it possible to take into account the importance of deprivation correlations at the individual level and thus may reverse results observed with the traditional tools used to check the “pro‐poorness” of growth. An illustration of our approach is given using Turkish data for the period 2003–05.     

Catastrophe futures and reinsurance contracts: An incomplete markets approach

We present a theoretical methodology for the pricing of catastrophe (CAT) derivatives with event‐dependent and non‐convex payoffs given the price of a CAT indexed futures contract. We do not assume a fully diversifiable CAT event risk, nor do we assume knowledge of the martingale probability measure beyond the futures price. We derive tight bounds on the contract value and present trading strategies exploiting the mispricing whenever the bounds are violated. We estimate the bounds of the reinsurance contract with data from hurricane landings in Florida. Our method is also applicable when there is no futures market but the price of a CAT‐indexed bond is available.     

Adam Smith on lotteries: an interpretation and formal restatement

The paper concerns a neglected aspect of the Wealth of Nations (with the notable exception of D. Levy 1999 Levy, D. M. 1999. “Adam Smith’s Katallactic Model of Gambling: Approbation from the Spectator.” Journal of the History of Economic Thought 21 (1): 81–91. doi:10.1017/S1053837200002868.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), dealing directly with decision under risk. In a few pages from book I, chapter 10, Adam Smith explicitly named “lotteries” various objects of choice (possible occupations, or investment opportunities, for instance) and provided an analysis which standard expected utility glasses would hardly fit. Taking this into account allows a better understanding of the part played by typical characters like the “projector” or the “sober man”, in such matters as Smith’s conception of entrepreneurship or of the credit market. The use of some modern concepts in decision analysis (inverse stochastic dominance, rank dependent utility, prudence toward risk), is a means to show the existence, in Smith’s work, of an original theory from decision under risk, where his analysis of lotteries in the Wealth of Nations is consistent with statements from his moral philosophy on asymmetric sensitivity to gains and losses and to the regulating part played by the impartial spectator.     

Testing for infinite order stochastic dominance with applications to finance, risk and income inequality

In this paper we develop a test of infinite order degree stochastic dominance based on the use of the empirical Laplace transform function. Two applications are considered. One uses the income data of Anderson (Econometrica 64:1183–1193, 1996) and derives results consistent with his. In the other application we examine the dominance between the U.S. and U.K. stock markets. Using data on the S&P 500 and the FTALL-Share we show that the U.S. displays infinite order degree stochastic dominance of the U.K.

欧元对美元：存在统治地位之争吗

经过了虚拟欧元三年的经验,以及在实际欧元问世的前夕,欧元事实上完全有可能挑战美元国际货币的地位。欧元面值债券的发行量已经超过美元面值债券的发行量。世界已经享有一个两极的国际金融市场,尽管还不是一个两极的国际货币体系。持有美元作为大量的国际储备使得这种货币在货币危机时变成瓮中之鳖,完全依赖于美元作为主要储备货币、发票货币、和干预货币带来了根本没有必要的风险。因此,欧元成为美元主要竞争者的时期即将到来。     

Bonds versus stocks: Investors’ age and risk taking

It has become increasingly popular to advise investors to relocate their funds from a primarily stock portfolio to a primarily bond portfolio as they get older. However, the well-known decision rules such as mean–variance or stochastic dominance rules are unable to explain this common practice. Almost stochastic dominance (ASD) and almost mean–variance (AMV) approaches are used to examine the dominance of stock and bond portfolios. ASD and AMV rules unambiguously support the popular practice of advising higher stock to bond ratio for long investment horizons. Hence, we provide an explanation to the practitioners’ recommendation within the expected utility paradigm.     

开放中的经济增长与政策选择--当前经济增长态势分析

对外开放与高资本积累共同推动了中国经济增长 ,其中政府的主导作用非常鲜明。文章首先指出 :1)尽管现在贸易摩擦频繁 ,但中国的贸易增长仍有空间 ;2 )虽然现实的储蓄缺口已经消失 ,但考虑到大量农村劳动力需要转移 ,资本形成缺口依然很大 ,仍有引进外资的必要。文章接着分析 :由于中国在对外开放与资本形成机制上存在着政府干预形成的严重扭曲 ,从而在增长过程中不断累积着“结构扭曲”的风险。面临金融开放 ,这种扭曲的结构会变得更加脆弱。因此 ,如何充分利用外部资源加快中国的非农化进程 ,同时消除制度性扭曲 ,优化资源配置方式 ,减少外部冲击风险 ,促进经济增长成为本文探讨的主线。